Elections in Colombia: Fed up and uncertainty define this second round

There are only a few days left to find out who will be the next president of Colombia, and the numbers, so far, do not show a clear winner. The only thing that the figures and the mood of the population indicate is a complete uncertainty about what will happen this Sunday. The candidates Gustavo Petro Y Rodolfo Hernandez they know it, that’s why they are fighting for every vote to be able to reach the Palacio de Nariño.

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According to the survey weighting of the Colombian political portal La Silla Vacía,

Undoubtedly, the emergence of Hernandez in the second round it was a jolt for the Colombians and a blow for the campaign of Petro, who already believed that the election was assured. The leftist, who presented himself as the representative of change, surprisingly saw how the former mayor of Bucaramanga, who had been almost unknown months ago, appropriated that speech, taking the baton of the need for Colombians to break with the way in which politics has been made in the country.

Supporters of Colombian presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernández gather to participate in a caravan to support their candidate in the streets of Bogotá. EFE/ Carlos Ortega (Carlos Ortega/)

“There is a lot of uncertainty. It has also been a very long campaign because we had the primaries for the first time in March, so many people are very tired and want this to end soon. The last three weeks have been especially virulent between the two sides, there has been a lot of negative campaign “Sandra Botero Cabrera, professor at the Faculty of International, Political and Urban Studies of the Universidad del Rosario, tells El Comercio.

“The polarization scenario these days has been very overwhelming. After the first round on May 29, a whole process ensued in which one and the other were inflamed by their choice. So, it would be necessary to consider whether this polarization is going to scare away some voters for Sunday, because that sensation also generates satiety in people who are less politicized.”, explains Colombian analyst Iván Garzón Vallejo, professor and researcher at the Autonomous University of Chile.

forced debate

The stage, without a doubt, is very divided and the high negative image that it has Petro It competes with the questioning of Hernández, who, once the novelty had passed, began to be scrutinized and to generate concern for the little substance behind his government program.

In fact, the former mayor of Bucaramanga persisted in his decision not to attend any debate. However, yesterday he had to back down after being forced by a Colombian court.

“I accept that the debate ordered by justice be held. The debate must be without conditions to the press, let them ask what they want”He assured on his Twitter account. However, Hernández has given Petro a series of conditions for this debate to take place, which have been accepted by the leftist.

Gustavo Petro has presented himself as the candidate for change, but his slogan was affected by the emergence of Rodolfo Hernández, a populist outsider. (Photo by Raul ARBOLEDA / AFP) (RAUL ARBOLEDA/)

“Hernández is one of those candidates who depends so much on a speech tied to commonplaces that, if you dig a little further, then it falls short. That is why he has decided to intervene as little as possible, only on very specific issues, and I think that not wanting to give interviews or go to debates shows his lack of preparation and his populist attitude. The populists only want to play on the court that is favorable to them”adds Garzon.

However, the expert points out that this strategy can still work for him to win the election.

“All the polls have agreed on the technical tie. But I have the impression that whoever has the upward trend is Hernandez”, note. And he explains it by pointing out that the candidate is confident in the automatic endorsement of the votes of the right, also based on the visceral antipetrism of those voters. “So it probably doesn’t stay up all night to attract votes from the center or from the undecided.”

The image that doesn’t help

One of the aspects you are focusing on Hernandez is that of women, after several sexist statements that he gave earlier were spread. This, in addition to the fact that his anti-corruption speech has come hand in hand with several complaints precisely for corruption when he was mayor of Bucaramanga.

“It is that the seams are already being seen”Garzon comments.

“Hernandez’s casual style and the novelty he represented worked for him to reach the second round, but as more is known about him, people learn about the good and the bad”Botero expresses.

According to a latest Invamer survey, Petro has an unfavorable image of 40%. Nevertheless, Hernandez it went from 12.7% at the end of May to 32.9% in just three weeks. “In addition to the corruption scandals that have been known, Hernández has aspects of his personality that are complicated for very important segments of the electorate, such as women and urban areas “point.

Antipetrismo is a deeply rooted feeling in many Colombians who do not conceive of voting for the former guerrilla. (Photo by Raul ARBOLEDA / AFP) (RAUL ARBOLEDA/)

Despite this, the antipetrism keep playing your cards. “This second lap is something very emotional. There is a portion of the electorate that is very anti-Petrista, because, just as very few people knew Rodolfo Hernández at the national level, everyone knows Petro because he has spent three decades in politics in this country; so there are people who can’t handle him and that feeling is one of the central things of the campaign. Many of the votes that Hernández has are not necessarily his, but are people who opt for him because they do not conceive of voting for Petro.Botero comments.

But not everything would be against the former guerrilla. The absenteeism -Since the vote is voluntary- it could pay Petro more options, according to Garzón: “Absenteeism favors Petro, because Hernández’s votes are more diverse. He has the right, but also disenchanted center people. But the vote of the Historical Pact is more disciplined and militant. The people who stop voting are probably thinking that ‘it can’t go any worse’, and those are potential voters for Hernández”.

However, the great challenge of the leftist is to convince the undecided and the moderates.

And the uribism?

The great absentee from this campaign is, without a doubt, the former president Alvaro Uribe, a highly polarizing figure in Colombia. that you know Hernandez, who has preferred that the rightist not give him any public support. The support that he did receive from Federico Gutiérrez, the conservative candidate linked to Uribismo who, after the results of the first round, indicated that he would vote for the populist and millionaire construction businessman.

“Uribism has been in a complicated crisis for a couple of years and that has become evident with the very bad closure that the current government of Iván Duque is having”Botero points out. “However, despite this, the right continues to be an important portion of the electorate. And there is a right that is not necessarily uribista. It was for decades, but it’s not like that anymore, and those are voters that Hernández is capturing very well.”he adds.

Whatever happens, these elections in Colombia are already historic. Two candidates who fly the banner of change and who, in fact, will modify the country’s political drift.

This is how Sandra Botero sums it up: “This campaign is going to be a watershed. Either one represents a change and a very strong turning point in national politics.”

Source: Elcomercio