The midterm elections: a referendum on the management of Biden and the true power of Trump

There are only three weeks left for elections that will be decisive to know the direction it will take USA in the short term. They are the mid-term legislative elections [‘midterm elections’]which will show if donald trump continues to have significant influence in the Republican Party, or if the president Joe Biden and the Democrats are able to maintain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

For this, the president is making a tour of several states – on Wednesday he began a visit to Colorado, California and Oregon, three states in the west of the country – in order to promote the achievements of his two years at the head of the governmentand thus support the Democratic candidates for Congress, because he knows that this election is always a kind of referendum on the presidential administration.

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In more than 160 years, the incumbent president’s party has rarely avoided a sanction vote. In recent years, it has happened to Barack Obama and also to Trump, who had to deal with opposition congresses.

Democrats know that the legislative election in November will be a referendum on the two years in office of Joe Biden. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh) (Susan Walsh/)

However, this time the story could be different as the polls show that the preferences are still not clear, which is why the race has become so competitive this time.

According to FiveThirtyEight, a website specializing in US politics and conducting poll analysis, the Democratic Party has a 67% chance of keeping the Senate, while the Republicans have a 69% chance of controlling the House of Representatives.

The polarization that left the presidential election of November 2020 -with the consequent Taking of the Capitol- has not disappeared two years later. The wounds have been left open and it remains to be seen how much of that struggle is repeated in a process where there is more absenteeism.

“Historically, midterm elections attract fewer voters than in a presidential election”the political scientist comments to El Comercio María Puerta Riera, Professor of Political Science at Valencia College in Orlando.

“In general, the elections for the renewal of Congress, governorships, state legislatures and local offices, attract the attention of the committed voter who is fundamentally an older electorate, while young people are less likely to participate in these elections”he adds.

Riera explains that the polls, so far, assume that the Republicans will control at least the lower house. “However, on the generic ballot the numbers show a technical tie.”

Achievements and pending accounts

Although the campaign is proving to be very competitive, especially in key states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania, Ohioboth parties continue to focus their strategies on basically criticizing the other side.

The Democrats cling to the great infrastructure and social spending plans that the Biden administration has undertaken, while the Republicans reproach the president for economic vulnerability and the always complex immigration issue (the buses full of immigrants sent from states controlled by Republicans they keep pouring into progressive states like New York).

Republican supporters pray before the start of a rally in Mesa, Arizona. REUTERS/Brian Snyder (BRIAN SNYDER/)

“The Biden administration is highlighting strategies aimed at minimizing the impact of inflation, such as lower gas prices, while downplaying the threat of a possible recession. However, the focus on social struggles is pending: immigration, climate change, education, among others, which occupy his agenda and that only with a favorable Congress will he be able to consolidate ”points out Riera.

“For their part, Republicans are attacking the White House on the economic flank, focusing their message on inflation, crime, and immigration, while avoiding mentioning the Supreme Court decision on abortion, which had been until now one of their fighting flags”.

And the economic issue may weigh at a time when a global recession looms. According to a recent Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll,

The numbers for Biden are not auspicious either. According to the weighted FiveThirtyEight surveys, 52.3% of the population disapproves of his management, compared to 42.4% who do approve.

The Trump Factor

A figure released by “The Washington Post” indicates that nearly 300 Republicans who are running for Congress or for positions in state legislatures believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election.

Former President Donald Trump is actively involved in the Republican legislative campaign, participating in rallies and events so that his candidates can reach Congress. REUTERS/Brian Snyder (BRIAN SNYDER/)

The number is just a sample that the former president will be a key factor in these elections, and still controls the Republican Party. In fact, he has imposed several candidates whose candidacies are proving very controversial, such as that of the television personality Mehmet Oz, a surgeon who for a long time hosted a very popular program on medicine and who is running for a seat in the Senate from Pennsylvania.

Or that of former football star Herschel Walker, who is running for senator in Georgia. Walker, known for his anti-abortion stances, but in 2009 he allegedly paid an ex-girlfriend to terminate her pregnancy.

“These are candidates imposed by the former president, and therefore, without political credentials. This may be a reflection of the new Republican Party, where what matters is Trump’s criteria.”comments Riera, who believes that the candidates who will surely win the majority of the seats in the House of Representatives will be ‘Trumpists’.

“His weight is irrefutable, and this is also a referendum on the power of Trump, not only in the Republican Party, but in the politics of the United States.”

Source: Elcomercio