From our correspondent in the United States,
It’s the warm-up before 2024. Technically, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are not candidates for these midterm elections. But the US president and his predecessor will play big in the November 8 midterms. At stake: the control of Congress, but also the election of governors and secretaries of state, who will play a decisive role in the next presidential election. Wave “MAGA” or democratic surprise, find every Friday the point of 20 Minutes on the ballot.
The news of the week: Trump subpoenaed by the committee on January 6
We expected an indictment, we got a surprise. On Thursday, the House of Commons investigative committee on the Capitol assault waited until the last minute to subpoena Donald Trump. Technically, ignoring a congressional summons is a federal offense. But in the expected legal tussle to force him to testify – or indict him for “obstructing” – the clock is ticking in favor of Donald Trump.
Nothing should be resolved by November 8, but this battle could galvanize the electorate. The announced victory of the Republican Party in the Chamber would sign, in effect, the end of the mission of the Commission. But Donald Trump remains threatened from all sides: whatever happens in Congress, the investigation, separate from the Department of Justice, continues. And on Thursday, Mike Pence’s former chief of staff, Marc Short, was spotted walking out of a Washington court where a grand jury is convened to decide whether there are grounds to indict the former US president. .
Figure of the week: Inflation up 8.2% year on year
This is bad news for Democrats. Inflation, which had seemed to be marking time this summer, is accelerating, with a price increase of 0.4% between August and September (against +0.1% between July and August). Over one year, it reached 8.2%, according to the CPI index published by the Labor Department. At 43.4% of positive opinions, Joe Biden’s popularity rating has increased by more than 6 points over three months. But with seven in 10 Americans believing the economy is headed in the wrong direction, the fundamentals remain complicated for Biden and Democrats.
The clash of the week: Tim Ryan vs JD Vance for the Senate in Ohio
This is one of the tightest duels for the Senate. In Ohio, a state won by Donald Trump with an 8-point difference in the last presidential election, the seat left vacant by a Republican seemed promised to the conservative JD Vance. But the centrist Democrat Tim Ryan picks up less than a point in the polls average. During a televised debate on Monday, he attacked Fleur with a gun, accusing his opponent of “licking Donald Trump’s ass” to the point of “losing his dignity”.
The controversies of the week: Abortion in Georgia, and candidate diminished by a stroke in Pennsylvania
In Georgia, Donald Trump’s colt for the Senate, who faces outgoing Democrat Raphael Warnock, remains bogged down. Accused at the beginning of October of having financed the abortion of an ex-girlfriend, the former star of American university football Herschel Walker continues to deny, despite the attacks of his son. This week the Washington Post revealed that his accuser was also the mother of one of the four children he had out of wedlock. Faced with the risk of implosion of his campaign, Republican senators Rick and Tim Scott came to the rescue.
If the loss of this seat can be expensive for the Republicans, the latter hope to redo in Pennsylvania. When he won the primary, Democrat John Fetterman was the ultimate anti-MAGA weapon. This 2m03 tattooed giant, with a shaved head, is more likely to wear a hoodie than a suit.
Opposite is the TV star Doctor Trump, Mehmet Oz, who seemed to represent the disconnected elites. Parachuted into Pennsylvania, he notably made a fool of himself by talking about a set of raw vegetables, in French in the text, rather than “veggie tray”, like ordinary mortals. Yes, but here it is, the Democratic giant has been wavering since a stroke. Recovering, he gave interviews to the American media this week using a computer that transcribed the questions in writing, because he suffers from an auditory processing disorder. His opponent obviously accuses him of not being “fit” to serve his fellow citizens, and the polls are narrowing.
Who has the “momentum”?
The polls have moved little this week. Republicans have a two-in-three chance of being a majority in the House, according to models of The Economist and the FiveThirtyEight website. In the Senate, it’s the opposite, as Republicans have chosen very right-wing candidates who seem to be struggling to appeal to the independent electorate and raise funds.
Be careful, many polls remain within the margin of error, and a surprise is not excluded. This week, Michael Moore – who had seen Donald Trump rise – predicted a Democratic wave, saying Americans were galvanized by abortion and could reject conspiratorial candidates en masse.
Source: 20minutes
I, Ronald Payne, am a journalist and author who dedicated his life to telling the stories that need to be said. I have over 7 years of experience as a reporter and editor, covering everything from politics to business to crime.
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