Liz Truss on the tightrope: how possible is the return of Boris Johnson?

the fight of Liz Truss to stay as British prime minister does not seem to be on the right track. In a further blow to her fragile government, the Conservative lost her second cabinet member on the same day she faced cries of “resign” and jeers from the opposition in her first appearance before the House of Commons, while in the pressure is mounting within his own party for him to leave Downing Street.

LOOK: United Kingdom: Why is Liz Truss’ continuity as Prime Minister at stake?

“I am a fighter and I do not give up”, said the leader of the Conservative Party in her weekly appearance in Parliament.

Truss’s political firestorm dates back to the late-September unveiling of an economic package of massive tax cuts and colossal support for energy bills that were greeted with angst in markets.

With just over a month in office, Truss was forced to scrap her proposal and swap out her finance minister and main ally, Kwasi Kwarteng, prompting some Conservative lawmakers to call for her replacement. The new representative of the Treasury portfolio, Jeremy Hunt, scrapped most of his tax reduction plan.

International analyst Brenda Estefan that Truss’s big stumble was his economic policy. “He announced a program of millionaire tax cuts without justifying how it was going to be financed, where the money left in the budget would come from. This generated enormous nervousness in the markets”, he tells El Comercio.

British Prime Minister Liz Truss looks down during a news conference after the finance minister was sacked in response to a budget that sent markets into chaos. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / SWIMMING POOL / AFP) (DANIEL LEAL /)

Truss’s economic policy triggered a sell-off in government debt within hours, sending the pound sterling to its lowest level against the dollar. The central bank was forced to intervene and bought long-term government bonds in order to reassure the markets a bit.

“Markets don’t like uncertainty and what Truss’s proposal left behind was enormous uncertainty”adds the expert.

Enrique Banús, director of the Institute of European Studies of the University of Piura, speaks along the same lines: “Truss is a person who, after a very long process, obtained the position and quickly got into a problem that was very poorly chosen, very poorly designed and very poorly communicated.”.

The crisis increased this Wednesday – less than a week after Kwarteng’s departure – with the resignation of Interior Minister Suella Braverman, who left office after making the “mistake” of sharing confidential information through her personal phone. .

on the tightrope

The two changes of ministers dealt a serious blow to Truss. Both Hunt and Shapp – who replaced Braverman – are from rival ranks to Truss within the party and openly opposed the prime minister’s proposals.

Banús points out that the new finance minister has a very different position from that of the prime minister because he is from the less radically liberal sector. “Actually, he was an opponent to Truss and today he is playing a very important role.”.

Jeremy Hunt is the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. (Photo: Getty Images)

Added to this is the speculation about the possibility that the Conservative deputies could force the exit of Trusswhose popularity in the polls has plummeted.

Conservative William Wragg said he had tabled a no-confidence motion on the prime minister. So far, six of the 357 Conservative MPs have publicly called for Truss to resign.

However, party rules prevent calling an internal vote of no confidence against the leader during his first year in office.

For Estefan, what is in the pipeline today is how the Conservatives who are not happy with Truss’s performance will manage to remove her from office without calling an election, something that would be catastrophic for the Conservative Party, which in the polls is far behind. under Labour.

“Although it is possible to try to change the norm that prevents her from being dismissed before she has been in office for a year, there are those who say that if that happens the party could drift. The other option is the one that happened with Boris Johnson and that today is beginning to sound louder and that is that the ministers begin to resign in a cascade and that she is forced to do it too“, Explain.

Banús points out that in the British press Truss is expected to resign. “There are headlines that say that the question is not what he is going to do, but when he is going to do it. She has been combative, she has said that she is not going to resign, but she can say that her words can be choked slaps. The situation is very complicated for her”, says the analyst.

The return of Boris Johnson?

In the midst of the crisis, several names are floating around as possible replacements for Truss if she ends up leaving office, especially those who ran against her in the last election, especially former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak. Some polls even mention former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, forced to resign less than four months ago, amid scandals.

Johnson had to resign after several scandals. (Photo: AFP) (JESSICA TAYLOR/)

How likely is Johnson’s return? “I think Sunak is closely watching how things move. I think that Sunak could arrive before Boris Johnson. There is a possibility, but I don’t see it as a first option”, Estefan considers.

Banús emphasizes that, according to the British press, Johnson has ruled out the possibility of returning. “He has been mentioned as one of the alternatives for some time, he has pull and that is the basic argument to speculate that he could return, but until recently he ruled it out because he is opting for the path of talks and conferences with which he is earning quite well. Now, he is a political animal, but his name is not the most popular in the media”, he points out.

He adds that if the successor of Truss en Sunak the prime minister would become a person with a migrant background – his family comes from Pakistan. “This is interesting within a conservative government, since the integration projects have been more typical of Labor”, he points.

Truss defeated Sunak in the elections. (Photo: EFE) (JONATHAN HORDLE / ITV / HANDOUT/)

Source: Elcomercio