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In the final stretch of the campaign in Brazilthe leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) and candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains an advantage over his adversary, the president Jair Bolsonarobefore the second round of elections next Sunday, according to polls published this week.
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According to an Ipespe survey released this Tuesday, Lula leads the intention to vote with 50% compared to 44% for Bolsonaro, both with an increase of one percentage point compared to the previous survey last week, with a margin of three point error. Blank and invalid votes totaled 4%, compared to 6% in the previous survey, while undecided votes remained at 2%. According to the institute, by excluding these values, Lula would obtain 53% of the valid votes and Bolsonaro, 47%, without changes compared to the last publication.
Another survey published this Tuesday by the Paraná Research agency presents another scenario: it places the opponents in a technical tie. With a view to the ballotage, Lula would obtain 50.2% against 49.8% of the president, according to the consultancy .
Lula lost 1.1 points, the same proportion that Bolsonaro increased compared to the Paraná Research survey carried out last week.
The firm Ipec, linked to Globo, one of the largest Brazilian media outlets, released its latest survey on Monday, according to which the PT leader maintains an eight-point lead over the president, unchanged from last week. . Lula would obtain 54% of the valid votes against 46% for Bolsonaro, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of 2%.
The former president would achieve 50% of the total votes, against 43% for Bolsonaro, 5% of blank or invalid votes, and 2% of undecided, according to the poll, carried out between Saturday and Monday. The result is identical to the one detected by Ipec in the previous survey, published last Monday, according to the G1 news portal. So, the difference in favor of Lula had been reduced after being from 55% to 45% of the eventual valid votes the previous week.
Meanwhile, the latest survey by the other major public opinion firm, Datafolha, published last Wednesday, also recorded a reduction in Lula’s advantage, from 53% to 52% of the valid votes, against an increase for Bolsonaro, from 47% to 48%, which left both contenders in a technical tie, given the 2% margin of error.
The AtlasIntel survey this Monday showed a brief increase in Lula’s intention to vote, with 52.0%, compared to 46.2% for Bolsonaro, from 51.1% compared to 46.5% for the president in the previous survey from two weeks ago.
The survey, which has a margin of error of one percentage point, was completed before the scandalous arrest on Sunday of Roberto Jefferson, a former deputy ally of the Brazilian extreme right who threw two grenades at him and fired rifles at two federal policemen who had gone to arrest him. The episode could have a negative impact on the last week of Bolsonaro’s electoral campaign, which quickly tried to detach itself from the episode.
In fact, Lula took advantage of the opportunity and affirmed that the president maintains a relationship with Jefferson.
“[Bolsonaro] he told one more lie when he declared that he has nothing to do with Robert Jefferson, he has everything to do with Robert Jefferson. He is an ally of all hours of Bolsonaro, he was with him in the elections” on October 2, said the PT candidate, five days before the second round.
This week, the polls will be published more frequently. On Wednesday, Atlas and Quaest will release their latest results. On Thursday, Datafolha will present a new survey. And on Saturday, the day before the ballotage, multiple public opinion firms will do so: MDA, Ipec, Datafolha, Quaest and Atlas.
By: “La Nación”, from Argentina / GDA
Source: Elcomercio
I, Ronald Payne, am a journalist and author who dedicated his life to telling the stories that need to be said. I have over 7 years of experience as a reporter and editor, covering everything from politics to business to crime.
