Where does this cold snap between Paris and Berlin come from and how to warm up the relationship?

The relationship of the Franco-German couple is not looking good. This cold between Paris and Berlin was illustrated by the postponement of the French and German Council of Ministers which was to be held this Wednesday. Instead, Emmanuel Macron receives Chancellor Olaf Scholz for lunch at the Elysée. The opportunity to speak frankly? To resolve the differences between the two main powers of the European Union?

The two leaders will in any case not make a statement, neither before nor after the meeting but for Gaspard Schnitzler, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris) and co-director of the Observatory of Germany at the same institute, “conflict resolution necessarily involves dialogue” and “it’s a good thing that they meet”, he confides to 20 Minutes. Indeed, the two leaders aim to “strengthen Franco-German cooperation” and to respond to common challenges in a “united and united manner”, summed up the French presidency on Tuesday.

How to explain the tensions between Berlin and Paris?

For a few weeks, the idyll between Berlin and Paris is no more. Emmanuel Macron has multiplied the declarations against his partner whom he accuses in particular of “isolating himself” in the face of the member countries of the European Union (EU). An addition of German decisions ended up offending France, especially on particularly sensitive subjects: questions of defense and energy. On the latter, Germany seems on the one hand to block the gas tariff shield desired by many members of the European Union, including France. “We have, today, a very broad unity between the countries. It is not good either for Germany or for Europe that it isolates itself”, declared the French head of state on 20 October last. Same tone adopted by Paris after the announcement of the Scholz government of a 200 billion euro plan to protect German households from soaring gas prices, without consulting its European partners.

The other sensitive subject is defence. Berlin plans to strengthen its armament, in particular with the project of a European anti-missile shield. But Germany chose a foreign partner, outside Europe, Israel, instead of turning to Paris and Rome. Moreover, it is allied with 14 other countries, without putting France in the loop. “This choice in opposition to the project carried out by Emmanuel Macron to strengthen the strategic autonomy of Europe has caused a certain incomprehension on the part of France, analyzes Gaspard Schnitzler. There is a certain disappointment on the French side in the face of German choices. But this choice is explained by the capability gaps in Germany, which it must fill. “And if these holes have to be filled by outside countries, too bad,” explains the researcher. You have to go fast. Faster than the waiting time allows for a purchase in Europe. But “there is a French fear of losing its leadership on defense issues in Europe in the face of a real turning point for Berlin on this subject”, he adds.

Still on defense issues, several deadlocks between France and Germany further heighten tensions: projects that are not moving forward, such as the SCAF combat aircraft (future air combat system), because of differences between manufacturers, on the French side Dassault and on the German side Airbus. Same thing on the Franco-German tanks which suffer from an “unbalanced partnership”, continues Gaspard Schnitzler.

Is the Franco-German relationship at a geopolitical turning point?

If the relationship seemed calmer between Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, it was less the change of leader than the global context, and particularly in eastern Europe, which pushed Berlin to change its defense policy. . The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has forced Germany to “forget its policy of openness maintained so far with Moscow”, recalls the researcher Gaspard Schnitzler. And this anti-missile shield is a way of positioning itself in Eastern Europe. “Olaf Scholz warned that the center of gravity of Europe was going to shift towards the East and Berlin wants to be part of this new dynamic, develops the co-director of the Observatory of Germany at Iris. They are diversifying their partnerships, “they are at a geopolitical turning point”, says the researcher.

On the contrary, France has fewer relations with this part of the continent, and relies heavily on the Franco-German “couple”. “France puts more feeling in this relationship, when we talk about couples, they, more pragmatic, will say engine or tandem”, demonstrates Gaspard Schnitzler. But it should follow the example of its neighbor across the Rhine and find other European allies. “It is important that Paris also diversifies its relations, it is necessary to have other partners”, he estimates. Sweden, for example, is willing to ally itself more with France. She showed it by participating in particular in the Takuba force in the Sahel until 2022.

Why is it important for Paris and Berlin to meet?

The multiplication of face-to-face meetings between Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz is a good start to warming up relations and shows a desire to unblock these subjects of disagreement. Before this lunch at the Elysée on Wednesday, the French head of state had been invited to Berlin on October 3 on the occasion of German Unity Day. Opportunities to settle differences but also to reconnect on common ground, and there are many.

Among them, the reform of the EU for which Paris has brought a number of ideas, which seem to achieve consensus between the two powers. The two leaders are both in favor of a European political community allowing the integration of countries in the process of accession or those outside the Union such as the United Kingdom. There is also the move to qualified majority, instead of unanimous voting, which France is ready to implement on a number of European decisions, from foreign policy to taxation. “A lot of things work, also recalls the researcher at Iris Gaspard Schnitzler. Strategic and defense issues are the most complicated, but many topics are still effective.”

Finding a good Franco-German relationship is important because “there is a desire for leadership on the part of the other European countries which have less weight, they want a force of proposals which leads the group because these countries do not have the means humans or politicians to do so”, explains Gaspard Schnitzler. Moreover, it is essential to display a united Europe, especially in this time of destabilization and Russian aggression on the borders of Europe.