Will aid to Ukraine be a collateral damage of the midterms?

From our correspondent in the United States,

“No blank check. With these three words, the leader of the Republican minority in the House, Kevin McCarthy, warned in mid-October: his party will no longer sign a “blank check” to help Ukraine if it wins a majority in the midterms. of November 8, with a potential recession looming. Faced with a Republican victory which is no longer in doubt, kyiv, but also the allies of the United States, are worried about this possible change in American policy which could threaten the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Because if there is no “substantial risk in the short term that American aid will dry up, the Republicans risk monetizing their support to obtain counterparties”, estimates Scott Anderson, expert in governance at the Brookings institution, a famous Washington think tank.

On Friday, the State Department announced a new shipment of Himars medium-range multiple-launcher rockets, which play a crucial role in pounding Russian ammunition depots and command centers. In total, since the start of the invasion eight months ago, Washington has provided nearly $18 billion in military equipment to Ukraine, out of the $27 billion promised, plus almost as much aid. economic and humanitarian.

Republican Divisions

Faced with these Republican threats, former Vice President Mike Pence banged his fist on the table: “There can be no place in the conservative movement for Putin’s champions. There is no place in this movement except for the defenders of freedom. »

With his exit, Kevin McCarthy was primarily addressing the populist wing of the Republican Party, represented in the House by the Freedom Caucus. This Trumpist parliamentary group, which campaigns for an “America First” doctrine, represents 20% of elected Conservatives (42 out of 212). A vocal minority that had prevented McCarthy from becoming Speaker in 2015, and which he will need to seize the hammer in January, especially if the Republicans have only a narrow majority. One of this group’s most visible elected officials, Marjorie Taylor Greene, accused Joe Biden of sending “dollars earned by the sweat of their brow by American taxpayers” to help a foreign country “wage a war that he has no chance of winning”.

Massive public support

However, Scott Anderson believes that there should still be enough pro-Ukraine Democrats and Republicans in Congress post-midterm to support an effort that ultimately costs much less – financially and politically – than an active war. with US troops deployed on the ground.

Nearly 75% of Americans support current aid, according to an Ipsos poll. And Joe Biden will still be able to count on a large envelope which must be voted on by the end of the year, before the new Congress takes office in January. Then, the Republican Party should, according to Anderson, try to monetize its support, “for example to obtain concessions in order to perpetuate tax cuts”. But this former lawyer for the State Department of the Obama administration warns: “If this conflict drags on, support for Western nations hit by economic and energy difficulties is likely to diminish. And in a war of attrition, it is not known who (kyiv or Moscow) would be able to resist the longest”.

Risk of domino effect

By itself, American support represents two thirds of world military aid to Ukraine (27 billion out of nearly 40 promised). kyiv and Washington’s allies are therefore nervously watching these midterms. Any shift could have a catastrophic domino effect, warns retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges: “If US aid drops significantly, many countries will use that excuse to cut back too. In Europe, Giorgia Meloni’s Italy and Germany, cautious because of its energy dependence on Russia, appear to be weak links.

According to the former boss of the American forces in Europe, the consequences would then go far beyond the framework of Ukraine: “Russia would conclude that the United States is not ready to do everything to stop its aggression in Europe. China would see that Washington lacks the will – or the ability – to endure the economic hardship necessary to sustain a democratic Nation in the face of a dictator who kills innocent civilians and flouts international law. And if there is one certainty in this conflict, it is that Vladimir Putin, in power for twenty-two years, knows how to be patient.