How the rise of COVID-19 in China increases the chances of a new variant of coronavirus emerging

Will the increase in COVID-19 in China cause the emergence of a variant of the virus? Scientists aren’t sure, but they worry about the possibility. It would be similar to the omicron variant already circulating there, or a combination of types or something else entirely, they claim.

“China it has a huge population and limited immunity. And those seem to be the conditions for the emergence of a new variant”said Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University.

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Each new infection offers an opportunity for the virus to mutate, and the disease is spreading rapidly across China. The country of 1.4 billion people has already largely abandoned its “zero COVID” policy.

While vaccination rates there are generally high, booster shots are not so high, especially among the older ones. Nationally manufactured vaccines are less effective than Western RNA-type ones. And many of the vaccines were given more than a year ago, which means that immunity has waned.

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The result? A favorable field for the virus to transform.

“When we see high infection rates, it is usually followed by the emergence of a new variant,” Ray said.

About three years ago, the original version of the virus came out of China and spread to the rest of the world. Then came the delta variant and then omicron and its descendants, which continue to plague the world to this day.

Dr. Shan-Lu Liu, who studies viruses at Ohio State University, noted that several omicron variants have been detected in China, including BF.7which is extremely adept at evading immunity and appears to be driving the new wave of infections.

Experts agree that a particularly vulnerable population such as that of China could prompt the virus to change. Ray likened the virus to a boxer who “learns to dodge the punches you throw at him and adapts to move around them.”

A big unknown is whether the new variant will cause more severe symptoms. Experts agree that there is no reason to think that the virus is getting milder over time.

“In large part, the mildness of symptoms in the past six to 12 months in many parts of the world is due to immunity acquired from vaccines or infection, not because the virus has changed,” Ray said.

In ChinaMost of the population has never been exposed to the coronavirus. Chinese vaccines are based on older technology that produces fewer antibodies, compared to Western ones.

Given this reality, it will be necessary to see if the virus follows the same pattern of evolution in China than the one that emerged in other parts of the world after the application of vaccines, said Dr. Gagandeep Kang, a virus researcher at Christian Medical College in Vellore, India.

“Or there’s the possibility that the evolutionary path is totally different,” he added.

Source: Elcomercio

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I am Jack Morton and I work in 24 News Recorder. I mostly cover world news and I have also authored 24 news recorder. I find this work highly interesting and it allows me to keep up with current events happening around the world.