“Polish Time” by Diane Francis*

The international press has written extensively about the decision of Germany and USA to send tanks to Ukraine. However, the silent protagonist behind this historic decision was, in fact, Poland.

LOOK: “5 lessons after a year of war”, by Mateusz Morawiecki´*

Polish leaders played a key role in convincing Berlin, in particular, to deliver modern tanks to Ukraine. This is one of many examples of Polish leadership in the face of the dramatic events of 2022, when Europe faced the biggest armed conflict on the continent since World War II.

Poland’s leading role in the European response to Putin’s invasion reflects its experience with Russian imperialism, in both its Tsarist and Soviet forms. Since Poland’s accession to the European Union in 2004, Warsaw politicians have warned Europe of the growing threat of a resurgent, revisionist Russia.

The Poles were especially concerned about the ever-closer ties between Berlin and Moscow, which is why they vociferously opposed German involvement in the Russian Nord Stream II gas pipeline. Polish politicians saw this strategic infrastructure project in the energy sector as a modern version of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact of 1939, which contributed to the outbreak of World War II and the invasion of Poland by the Nazi and Soviet states. The Poles warned that the pipeline would allow Putin to circumvent the system for transporting gas through Ukraine, exposing Ukraine to a full-scale invasion, while putting Europe in a position to be blackmailed by Russia through from the threat of possible power outages. However, Germany ignored these warnings until the eve of the Russian attack in February 2022.

Poland’s current leading role in European security policy is not entirely new. Since joining NATO in 1999, Poland has proven to be a pillar of security on the Alliance’s eastern flank. This has been possible thanks to Poland’s strategic location and enormous economic development, which has helped finance the rapid modernization and expansion of the national armed forces. Poland’s army currently ranks 20th among the most powerful in the world.

Poland has in many ways set the tone for the European humanitarian response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Since the start of the invasion, it has taken in more Ukrainian refugees than any other European country, providing them with a whole host of benefits, such as access to healthcare and education along with employment opportunities. In the last year, the Polish authorities have registered more than 1.5 million refugees from Ukraine.

Poland is also the largest contributor in relation to the armed aid provided to Ukraine. On a per capita basis, Poland has in fact sent more military aid to Ukraine than any other country in the Baltic states. This aid has included hundreds of tanks and other key weapons. Poland plays a crucial role in logistical actions aimed at providing armed assistance to Ukraine, enabling the global coalition of countries to provide the Ukrainian army with the necessary weapons, equipment and ammunition.

On the diplomatic front, Poland has demanded tougher sanctions against Russia. Recently, the Polish leadership has put pressure on Berlin to deliver German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and allow other countries to make this decision as well. When German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wavered at this proposal, Poland threatened to hand over dozens of German Leopard tanks in defiance of German restrictions on new exports. “We will not passively watch Ukraine bleed to death,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki declared. “However, it is up to Germany whether it wants to join the mission to stop Russian barbarism or whether it will passively view this situation, dooming itself to be written on the wrong side of history.”

Germany eventually relented, but this incident alone, along with all the fuss over the Nord Stream II, weakened Berlin’s position. Germany’s clear ambivalence towards a predatory Russia and Berlin’s ties to the Kremlin have enabled Poland to assume a moral leadership position on European security issues. This has also included criticism of Austria and Hungary for allegedly giving in to Putin’s whims. Poland also blames Germany for the delay in imposing sanctions. In April 2022, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki accused Germany of “blocking” the imposition of tougher sanctions on Russia. “This can be seen in the meetings of the European Council. Anyone who reads the transcripts will know perfectly well that Germany is the main brake on the imposition of sanctions of a tougher nature ”– he told the press in Warsaw.

The Polish leadership is helping to fill the geopolitical vacuum created by the waning influence of the forces that have traditionally dominated European foreign policy. The UK voted to leave the European Union in 2016, significantly reducing the UK’s ability to shape Europe’s response to the threat from Russia. At the same time, throughout his rule, Putin has demonstrated his ability to co-opt French and German politicians and businessmen, offering them trade deals, gas pipelines and other benefits. It is no coincidence that the Russian dictator chose Germany and France in 2014 for talks in the Normandy Four, to end the war provoked by Russia in eastern Ukraine. This approach gave rise to the failed Minsk Protocol and set the stage for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Poland is now trying to warn the world of the danger coming from Putin’s Russia. “This is not a regional conflict. This war, Russia’s war against Ukraine, is the revival of a world conflagration, this war will affect both our countries and yours. To the extent that it has not already done so” – declared President Andrzej Duda during the general debate of the UN General Assembly in 2022.

Poland’s leadership in the European response to Putin’s invasion is creating unprecedented ties between the Polish and Ukrainian peoples. In the past, these nations have been divided by historical battles and disputes. However, they are now united by the existential threat posed by today’s Russia. Surveys conducted in Ukraine regularly identify Poland as the closest partner for Ukrainians.

While the Kremlin cynically disguises the murderous invasion of Ukraine under the name of the “brotherhood of the Slavic peoples”, it has been the Poles, Ukraine’s Slavic neighbors, who have offered them true brotherly support. This is precisely what will configure the geopolitical situation of the region. After defeating Russia, Ukraine is likely to strengthen its partnership with Poland, forming a powerful bloc in European politics. Together these two nations will have a significant voice in the wider democratic world. The geopolitical center of Europe is shifting to the east, with Poland in the lead.

Text published jointly with the Polish monthly magazine “Wszystko co najważniejsze” as part of a historical project with the Institute of National Memory and the Polish National Foundation.

*DianeFrancis. British-Canadian author, editor-in-chief of the “National Post” since 1998. Professor at the Atlantic Council in Washington DC, specializing in Eurasian politics.

Source: Elcomercio

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