The right won in the Constitutional Council of Chile: What are they expected to achieve and what effect will it have on the Boric government

The election of the Constitutional Council, an important step in the long road towards an eventual change of Constitution in Chileleft the Republican Party, from the conservative Jose Antonio Kast.

READ ALSO: How the apathy and the strengthening of the conservatives mark the election of the Constitutional Council in Chile

According to data from the Electoral Service (Servel), the Republicans obtained 35.42% of the total votes, obtaining 23 of the 50 possible seats and prevailing in 15 of the 16 regions.

In the same magnitude that these results have been a victory for kastThey also represent a severe blow to the ruling party, whose coalition barely managed to gain 17 councillors.

In this way, if the Republicans align with the traditional right – which obtained 11 advisers – will have two thirds of the votes in the Constitutional Council.

A majority that gives them power in the chamber and the possibility, even, of changing the rules of the game if they so wish.

Aware of this, the Chilean president gabriel boric urged the Republicans to avoid making the same mistakes that were seen during the first process, which ended with the draft Constitution rejected by a large majority during a referendum held in 2021.

Boric urged Republicans not to repeat the mistakes made by the left during the first constituent phase.

THE RIGHT RECIPE

As pointed out Claudia Heisshead of the Political Science program at the University of Chile, the results obtained by the right were much greater “than any forecast had expected.”

It should be remembered that the intention to change the Constitution It was born from the social outbreak at the end of 2019. So, how is it that now the right-wing against which they protested ends up having control of the Constitutional Council?

“The reasons are diverse. We are talking about contingent, structural and long-standing factors”comment to Trade Francis Vicenciopolitical scientist from the Catholic University of Chile and professor at the Alberto Hurtado University.

For the analyst, the migratory crisis, the wave of murders of Carabineros agents and the economic perspective, in addition to the errors left by the first constituent process, ended up tilting the balance towards Kast’s side.

“In the last week, the public agenda in Chile has been taken up by issues related to security. Kast and the Republican Party took a fairly tough position on the issue from the beginning, unlike the traditional right, the rest of the parties or the ruling party, which was widely criticized for having a soft stance.”says Vicencio.

“There is also talk of partisan disaffection. In recent years we have had hyper-electoral periods, from local elections, primaries or the Constitution process. Citizens are tired”add.

Supporters of the far-right Republican Party celebrate the victory of their candidates during an election to elect members of Chile’s Constitutional Council. (Photo by JAVIER TORRES / AFP). (JAVIER TORRES /)

CAPITALIZING ON THE VICTORY

Unlike the parties of the center, left or traditional right, until a couple of weeks ago the Republicans continued to ensure that they do not support a change to the Constitution.

With their overwhelming victory, the question that arises is what will happen now that they are in command of the ship. “The position they are going to adopt is not completely clear, but there are three possible scenarios”says Vicencio.

In the first place, the expert proposes that the Republicans coordinate with the other right-wing parties the boycott of the Constitutional Council. Supported mostly by two-thirds, these allies could even reject the 12 intangible points that the Council of Experts will suggest before the Constitutional Court begins session on June 7.

Secondly, there is the possibility that they endorse the Constitution inherited from Pinochet as it is, leaving the left and center-left out of the debate. “What would be worrying would be that the right wants to maintain the current Constitution and disassociate itself from any type of modification such as the recognition of native peoples, increase the guaranteed rights. They could also limit civil liberties reform, such as a possible euthanasia law; or economic freedoms. For now they have announced that these issues will not be touched on, but we will have to see how the discussion will go because there are several new actors in politics and that makes it unpredictable ”explains Vicencio.

Finally, the third scenario sounds like the most hopeful for Chilean democracy. “It would be for them to be collaborative and obtain a victory in the plebiscite on December 17, that would bring them great political revenue,” says the expert.

Last Sunday’s results have shown that the table has completely turned and present an unparalleled opportunity for Kast.

For Vicencio, the future of this Constitutional Council will determine the options for the conservative politician to reach La Moneda. “Undoubtedly this process will be directly linked to his figure, as well as his eventual success or failure. He currently finds himself leading the polls by a wide margin, but being in the opposition today is a pretty comfortable place. If the same mistakes are made as in the previous process and you do not get the support of the public, your figure could be rejected.”think.

Source: Elcomercio