The “Bukele effect”: how the “iron hand” policy in El Salvador influences the elections in Guatemala

Only surpassed by the high cost of living, there is an issue that is of particular concern to the population of Guatemala and that he hopes that his next president will manage to redirect.

Insecurity is identified as the second concern of the population according to a survey published in May by the newspaper Prensa Libre. And it is in it that they demand that the winner of these elections –whose first round is held this Sunday– should focus as one of their priorities.

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To offer a response to this citizen claim against assaults and extortions, several of the candidates to direct Guatemala They looked very closely for a security model that they promise to replicate at least in part if elected: the “iron hand” policy of its neighbor El Salvador.

Led by its president Nayib Bukele –who enjoys a popularity rating of over 90%–, this strategy managed to drastically reduce his homicide figures after the arrest of more than 60,000 suspected gang members and their practical dismantling.

However, it also received multiple complaints for alleged violations of human rights, thousands of arbitrary detentions and more than 150 deaths in prisons within the framework of a state of exception that lasts for more than a year.

The concern of Guatemalans is explained if one looks at data such as that their homicide rate increased in 2022 for the second consecutive year to reach 17.3 per 100,000 inhabitants, according to the Center for Economic Research (CIEN).

However, the trend until 2020 had always remained downward: from the exorbitant 46.4 in 2009 to the minimum of 15.3 that was registered in the first year of the covid-19 pandemic.

The homicide rate in Guatemala has been on the rise for two consecutive years. (AFP).

Thus, although they are still far from the rates of almost all their neighbors (35.8 in Honduras; 25.2 in Mexico and 25 in Belize, according to the 2022 homicide balance of the specialized portal Insight Crime), many in Guatemala -although As in other countries in the region, they look with admiration at the Salvadoran results: according to the Bukele government, its homicide rate dropped last year to 7.8.

The geographical proximity of the two countries and the presence in both of gangs and other criminal groups mean that Guatemalan citizens and some of the candidates for president –aware of the electoral gain that this position implies for them– defend that the “Bukele effect” can be replicated with success.

But is that really viable in the Guatemalan context?

The candidates’ proposals

Of the candidates most likely to win the presidency, according to polls, and who alluded to Bukele’s security strategy in their campaigns, zury rios he is probably the one who shows his aspiration to replicate it more explicitly.

At the head of the right-wing Valor-Unionista coalition, the daughter of Efraín Ríos Montt – who was the de facto ruler of Guatemala in the early 1980s and later tried for genocide– He even traveled to El Salvador to learn about some of the projects within the framework of Bukele’s so-called “Territorial Plan”, although he did not meet with officials from his government.

The former deputy makes security the central axis of her proposals, among which she promises to build new prisons that are reminiscent of the example of the controversial maximum security mega-prison built in El Salvador for 40,000 people.

“President Bukele has had the character, firmness, and determination to apply the law,” Ríos told a local media outlet, who claims to also base his proposal on the Colombian model led by former President Álvaro Uribe for his offensive against the warfare.

Zury Ríos is the presidential candidate who has made a firm commitment to emulate Bukele. (AFP).

For her part, the candidate of the party self-defined as the Social Democratic National Unity of Hope (UNE), Sandra Torres, He also promised in an intervention on local television “to implement the same strategies as President Bukele”, with whom he advanced that he would sign “bilateral agreements” without providing further details.

Torres, who was first lady during the government of Álvaro Colom (2008-2012) and who was left at the gates of the presidency in the second round of the last two elections, is committed to “intervening” and “militarizing” prisons.

“(Bukele) It’s giving good results.” praised Torres, who also defends improving security technologies and providing more budget to the National Civil Police to stop extortion of citizens.

Also Edmond Mulet, candidate of the centrist Cabal party, is committed to these last two proposals and during the campaign highlighted other ideas that may be reminiscent of the El Salvador model, such as the control of prisons or the construction of a maximum security prison for gang members.

However, the diplomat and former United Nations official distanced himself from Bukele’s strategy, considering that the conditions in Guatemala are not the same as in the neighboring country. “These are different circumstances,” he told the AFP agency.

Bukele “solved that problem in some way, but he is creating other problems at the level of deinstitutionalization of the country, of retreat also in purely democratic aspects”, added.

Sandra Torres and Edmond Mulet are the other two candidates most likely to win the presidency, according to polls. (GETTY IMAGES).

Another sign of the popularity in Guatemala of El Salvador’s “iron hand” policy is that Carlos Pineda – who had the greatest intention to vote until he was left out of the elections at the end of May due to alleged irregularities in the Assembly that appointed him candidate – He also showed his admiration for Bukele and traveled to the neighboring country to learn about the changes experienced after the start of the “war against gangs.”

Challenges for its replica in Guatemala

But experts consulted by BBC Mundo rule out that the Salvadoran strategy so praised by various presidential candidates could really be replicated in Guatemala.

“They have done a simple ‘copy-paste’ (copy and paste) of El Salvador’s strategy without considering our differences in security. That tells you a lot about the precariousness in the content of the proposals here: they prefer to copy those of the neighboring president and say anything to the citizens, whether viable or not.” criticizes the Guatemalan analyst Renzo Rosal.

Among the factors that could make it difficult to apply Bukele’s model in the field is the fact that Guatemala has a territorial area five times greater than that of El Salvador and a much larger and more diverse population due to its more than 20 ethnic groups.

“If we take into account that we are between 18 and 20 million people in a much larger area, it would be illogical and difficult to think that gangs could be ‘cornered’ here as in El Salvador (with just over 6 million inhabitants)”, responds Stu Velasco, who was deputy director of criminal investigation of the National Civil Police of Guatemala.

Its greater extension and having a larger and more diverse population would make it difficult to replicate the Bukele model in Guatemala, say experts. (AFP).

But, beyond these physical and demographic characteristics, there are also differences in the type of insecurity and violence that impacts each country.

Rozal points out that, in addition to gangs, Guatemala is experiencing a strengthening of other criminal structures such as drug trafficking networks and others linked to smuggling or human trafficking, which exist to a lesser extent in El Salvador.

“That makes the security landscape here much more complex. The gangs exist but they do not act alone: they do it like tentacles of other larger expressions, better armed and with an incredibly strong territorial control”, assures the political analyst.

Prisons and human rights

Rozal also shows his reservations regarding the announced construction of maximum security prisons.

“In Guatemala, large prisons were built in the past and they ended up being white elephants that were useless because there was terrible corruption around them. That is another phenomenon that El Salvador has, but in less quantity: our levels of corruption and impunity”.

Velasco, for his part, stresses that the security priorities should be to create a comprehensive State criminal policy that strengthens the civilian state police, that has an army that guarantees security on the borders, a Public Ministry that speeds up criminal prosecution, a justice system that speeds up criminal proceedings and a transparent prison system with more infrastructure and financial resources.

Likewise, it claims that “citizen security in Guatemala is something that can no longer be postponed or improvised, and that regardless of who comes (to the presidency), it needs to be addressed from a technical perspective and under the rule of law. There is no other solution”.

The proposal to build maximum security prisons was repeated in the campaigns of various candidates. (REUTERS).

The security consultant does not ignore the multiple criticisms of human rights violations received by the Bukele method. For this reason, he wonders if a policy that adds tens of thousands of detainees in such a short time is really effective, taking into account that a justice system is needed that is capable of prosecuting so many people and legally showing their real link to The gang.

“Betting on that policy is not recognizing that we have failed as a State in carrying out a comprehensive criminal policy to prevent crime and that, for this reason, we are forced to break some rules of the Rule of Law to quench society’s thirst for justice and revenge? Velasco wonders.

“We must bet on not breaking those rules so that, in five or ten years, we do not realize that there were thousands of detainees or that I don’t know how many innocent people died, because we could become something worse than what we are trying to combat,” he concludes. .

Source: Elcomercio