“The rebellion of the Wagner Group is a very clear sign that Putin is getting weaker”

Brief as it was, the rebellion of the wagner group It will have a direct impact on the war in Ukraine and on Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to maintain control of Russia, believes Román Ortiz, an expert analyst on international security, who sees less and less support and prospects for success for the Russian ruler.

LOOK: Putin under pressure: Were the actions of the Wagner Group in Russia a coup attempt?

He also considers that although the objective of Yevgueni Prigozhin, head of the mercenaries, was to carry out a coup, the way in which it was carried out was more consistent with a failed military coup.

— What does the rebellion of the Wagner Group mean for Putin at this time of the war in Ukraine?

From a military point of view it is a first level crisis. The Wagner Group has about 20,000 fighters in the Ukraine. A part of them are experienced and effective and another part, quite large, are criminals recruited from prisons who receive very limited training. This rebellion creates a problem in certain sectors of the front because Russia will no longer be able to count on those forces, and that opens an opportunity for the armed forces. ukrainian The second problem is one of political control.

Members of the Wagner group sit on top of a tank on a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don, on June 24, 2023. (Photo by STRINGER / AFP) (STRINGER /)

— How beaten is Putin in that regard?

Since the war began, Putin has been trying to mobilize Russian society and economy to sustain the war effort, while at the same time seeking to maintain political control despite the fact that the war is going poorly. What has happened with the Wagner Group is a very clear sign that Putin is getting weaker. This significantly reduces his control over political power and opens the door to future attempts to oust him, perhaps less spectacular, but perhaps more effective.

— How many real options did the Wagner Group have and still have to destabilize Russia?

The Wagner Group was able to reach an agreement to stop its military advance towards Moscow. I think that this is, above all, an acknowledgment of Wagner’s inability to carry out his attempt to dislodge, at least, the country’s military leadership. Although his coup attempt has failed, his rebellion has done immense damage to Vladimir Putin’s political control. The mere fact that this attempt has taken place opens a very large crack in Putin’s ability to maintain control over the country.

Russia accused the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, of inciting an armed rebellion. (Photo: Reuters)

— Was Prigozhin aiming for a coup?

I believe that Prigozhin’s ultimate goal was to carry out a coup. What happens is that the way in which it developed was more in the form of a military coup, among other things, because the Warner Group did not have control of the nerve centers of the military system and the Russian political system.

— Will this have a significant impact on the course of the war in Ukraine?

Definitely. Now it will be much more difficult for the Russian Armed Forces to hold the line of defense along the entire length of the front. First, because there will be a quantitative reduction in the number of troops; and second, because of the level of disorder that all this creates in the lines, the lack of confidence and so on.

And we must not forget that Russia is also losing a core of effective combatants at a time when one of the biggest problems facing the Russian Armed Forces is not so much quantity, but quality. The best Russian units and the best Russian equipment have been lost in the first stage of the war. Losing thousands more well-trained men, as it is a significant reduction in military capacity that opens opportunities for Ukraine in certain sectors of the front.

Paramilitaries from the Wagner Group block a street in the center of Rostov-on-Don, in southern Russia, on June 24, 2023. (EFE/EPA/ARKADY BUDNITSKY). (ARKADY BUDNITSKY/)

— What paths or exits does Putin have from now on to fulfill his plans inside and outside Russia?

From before and now even more, Putin is playing for time. The Russian Armed Forces are currently not in a position to reverse the military situation, to go on the offensive. Those who are on the offensive now are the Ukrainians. It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will be able to recapture even more territory than Russia has occupied. Putin’s hope is that time will eventually exhaust the will of Western countries to support Ukraine. That is the main bet. Now, time is also wearing on him, on Russian society, on the Russian economy and on his grip on power. The Wagner Group rebellion is a sign of the wear and tear on his grip on power, so Putin does not have a very easy way out. He has less and less support and fewer prospects for success.

— Will Putin’s strategy be to bet on wear and tear?

What I think we are going to see is increased paranoia within the regime, more domestic repression and an attempt to hold the line in the Ukraine. Inside the country, Putin will be able to play for time. He will seek to hold out more and wait for things to turn in his favor, that is the best option he has at the moment.

Source: Elcomercio