Argentina and an uncertain electoral campaign: a race of two or three forces?

The last token placed on the board reformulated the electoral game in Argentina. The inclusion of Sergio Massa as a bet of the pro-government bloc changed the actions of the opposition that was getting ready to face a candidate with a Kirchnerist profile.

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Around the time, the Peronist front – called for this election Unión por la Patria – dismissed the options of Eduardo de Pedro, a figure close to Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, and Daniel Scioli, who had the support of President Alberto Fernández.

The negotiations ended with the nomination of the current Minister of Economy to the primary, open, simultaneous and mandatory elections (PASO) that will be held on August 13.

Although the PASO constitute a first test for the October general elections, various analysts consider that it can determine irreversible trends.

Fourteen groups will participate in these elections, but, according to surveys, attention would be focused on only three political forces: the pro-government party, the opposition Juntos por el Cambio (JXC) and the liberal La Libertad Avanza, led by Javier Milei.

In the latest CB Consultora poll, this week after the lists closed, Together for Change remains the group with the highest voting intentions with 33.8%.

For the historian and political scientist Camila Perochena, Massa’s entry into the game mainly affected Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. The current head of government of the City of Buenos Aires (who competes in the JXC internal with Patricia Bullrich) was one of the first to launch his presidential candidacy. He had built his argument against the crack to win neutral voters. “Massa could take away certain votes from the center, since the moderate speeches of both bear a certain similarity,” Perochena mentions.

In this sense, the strategy has already shown its first changes. This week, Rodríguez Larreta questioned the candidacy of Massa, whom he described as “more of the same.”

“Now he has to turn Massa into a Kirchnerist to compete with possibilities,” says Martín Rodríguez Yebra, editorial secretary of the newspaper “La Nación.”

If Larreta is the moderate, Bullrich represents the hard wing of the coalition. Running further to the right, he has the support of former president Mauricio Macri. In recent weeks, he has shown an upward trend in preferences. “His campaign of him seeks to conquer the voter convinced of his sector,” says Rodríguez Yebra.

Although Unión por la Patria is located four points below the opposition force, there are several doubts about how the connection between Massa and the electorate will develop in these two months.

In a context of 114% annual inflation and exchange imbalance, the economy will set the campaign agenda. In this sense, analysts consider it risky to place the current minister of that portfolio as head of the list. “Every time the monthly inflation index comes out, you will be playing the chances. They are going to be like electoral polls for him”, Perochena refers.

Massa’s election also meant a certain loss of influence for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner within Peronism. “Massa has a speech that does not match Kirchnerism. They are speaking against the IMF and he is sifting those words in order to negotiate the agreement. You have to see how the two discourses are equalized, ”says Rodríguez Yebra.

Fernández and the vice president have maintained a tense relationship in the government. (Photo: AFP)

In 2015, Massa tried for the presidency outside of Peronism. He campaigned questioning Fernández de Kirchner, but it was not enough for him to enter the second round. Four years later, he joined Kirchnerism to support the candidacy of Alberto Fernández, who today does not have the best popularity.

That swing could bring a tail. “His enemies of him harp on the idea of ​​the ‘pancake’, of someone who turns around easily,” says the editorial secretary of “La Nación.”

Although Massa was endorsed by the main spokesmen of the front, in these primary elections Peronism presents a second option: Juan Grabois, a union leader. “He appears to be more of a testimonial candidate. He is not going to win, but he can cushion a possible flight of votes to other leftist options, ”explains Rodríguez Yebra.

One of the great unknowns of the process is whether there will be a three-thirds election, as Cristina Fernández de Kirchner herself foresaw weeks ago. With that statement, the vice president brought the ultraliberal Javier Milei, the only presidential candidate of La Libertad Avanza, into the ring.

In the recent Proyección Consultores survey, the economist appears with 17%. After sustained growth for several months, in recent weeks his voting intention has hit a plateau. “He embodies a good part of the discontent that exists with politics, but his political force is weak and it is taking its toll on him,” Perochena says.

“He has had problems because the miseries of the policy he denounced appeared on his own front. Complaints of corruption, sale of positions, fictitious appointments, ”adds Rodríguez Yebra.

Even so, analysts acknowledge that Milei is competitive and could increase her chances based on the number of votes she receives in the primaries. “If she passes the 20 points, it would determine the rest of the process. If she falls below, it is likely that she will deflate towards the generals, ”says Rodríguez Yebra.

Without Mauricio Macri or Cristina Fernández de Kirchner –the main figures of Argentine politics of the last decade– in the presidential formulas, a blanket of uncertainty covers the next elections. Analysts refrain from giving closed forecasts. “There are many variables that could condition the choice,” they point out.

Who will prevail in the internal opposition? How will the economy behave? Will the anger be channeled only in Milei or will it also go to absenteeism? These questions appear to consider. In the 42 days that separate us from the STEP we will learn the answers.

Source: Elcomercio