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More than a week after the short rebellion of the wagner group against the military high command Russiathe President of Ukraine, Volodymyr ZelenskyHe said the uprising “greatly affected Russian power on the battlefield” and could benefit Russia’s counter-offensive to retake Russian-conquered territory.
“They are losing the war. They have no more victories on the battlefield in UkraineSo they’re starting to look for someone to blame.” said Zelensky on Saturday at a press conference with Spanish media in kyiv.
LOOK: The “Butcher of Syria”: Who is Sergei Surovikin, the Russian general who knew about the rebellion plans of the Wagner Group
“We need to take advantage of this situation to expel the enemy from our land.”, he added.
Zelensky He also claimed that 21,000 mercenaries from the wagner group have died in the east Ukraine. He did not specify in what time period these alleged deaths occurred. He also claimed that 80,000 mercenaries were injured.
“The most powerful group of Wagnerians was in the east of Ukraine”accurate Zelensky.
LOOK:What will happen to the Wagner Group after the rebellion against Putin? (and what did the mercenary Prigozhin say when he reappeared)
At this point, it is worth asking if the output of the wagner group of the battlefield will change the course of the war on Ukraine.
After giving up his claim to depose the Russian Defense Minister and the Army Chief of Staff, the mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin agreed to go into exile in belarus.
In addition, the president himself Vladimir Putin confirmed last week that fighters from Wagner They had until July 1 to sign their contracts directly with the Army and thus be able to continue fighting in Russia.
On the battlefield, more than a week after the rebellion of Wagnerthe Ukrainian counter-offensive has not resulted in rapid progress and resounding victories.
According to analysts consulted by international media, it is premature to know if in the short term there will be any positive effect for Ukraine.
In any case, what everyone agrees on is that if the rebellion of Wagner had been prolonged in time, this would have had catastrophic effects for the Russians who are fighting in Ukraine.
Saturday, Zelensky He acknowledged that the counteroffensive is progressing slowly. He said that it happens this way because his army values human lives.
“Every meter, every kilometer costs lives… You can do something very fast, but the field is mined to the ground”, said. “People (are) our treasure. That’s why we are very careful.”
LOOK: Wagner Group: Why is there a war between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu?
Ukraine confirmed Wednesday that the wagner group he was no longer actively fighting on the front lines. In their place, the mercenaries had been replaced by Russian paratroopers and regular troops with less experience in warfare.
Michael Kofman, a Russian military specialist at CNA, an independent research and analysis organization based in Washington, calculated that Prigozhin It probably had about 15,000 active fighters in Ukraine, according to Bloomberg Line.
Other sources estimate that Wagner’s permanent combatants in Ukraine there were 25,000 troops at most.
Bloomberg Línea specified that the wagner group played an important role in the war during the winter, but that his mission was limited to the relentless attack on the Ukrainian forces in the city of bakhmut and its surroundings. This represents a small section of the front line that has a total of 1,000 kilometers.
In addition, when he declared himself in absentia, the wagner group had already withdrawn from bakhmut and had turned over that territory to the Russian regular forces.
Analysts also believe that the Kremlin inflated the importance of Wagner on the battlefield to hide the failures of the Russian regular troops.
Zach Witlin, principal analyst at the Eurasia Group consultancy, told BBC Mundo not to expect the latest events to have a major impact on the war, at least in the coming weeks or months.
He stressed that Wagner’s forces were not deployed in the areas where Ukraine is developing its counteroffensivemuch further south of the country.
Rob Lee, a former US Marine Corps officer and fellow at the Philadelphia-based Institute for Foreign Policy Research, agreed with Witlin.
“They weren’t playing a key role in the war at the time,” Lee said on his organization’s website.
“It was never clear what Wagner’s role would be in the rest of the war after Bakhmut,” added.
Matthew Orr, a Eurasia analyst at Rane, a risk analysis firm, also doesn’t see an impact on the war anytime soon. “I don’t think it will have such a big impact on the war in Ukraine, at least in the short term,” he told BBC Mundo.
“The Wagner forces that participated in these events had already been withdrawn from the front lines, and in fact, even those that did not participate were not at the front lines at all either. Ukraine, but mostly in their rear camps. So it’s not like Russia will lose a lot of forces that it would want to use in the Ukraine war or could use in the Ukraine war in the future.” added.
“The value of the Wagner Group has been decreasing over the last year. They were used for the most risky missions and were in the front line of combat absorbing casualties. From that point of view, they have been useful to the Russian military,” Witlin said.
The decline of Wagner is explained by the heavy losses it had in bakhmut and for his public confrontation with the Russian high command, due to the lack of timely delivery of ammunition and other military equipment, indicated Matthew Orr.
“Many of its units, and specifically those made up of prisoners [que habían sido liberados a cambio en alistarse] they were involved in many very risky and dangerous attacks. And they had a lot of wear and tear during that time. That is the main reason for its decline. Ultimately, of course, they don’t have the same resources to compete with the regular Russian military.” I note.
The deadline for mercenaries to sign their contracts with the Ministry of Defense of Russia already won It has not been reported how many combatants responded to that call, how many will definitively abandon the war and how many will continue to Prigozhin and they will go into exile belarus.
Nico Lange, a German expert on Ukraine and Russiasaid in an interview with DW that Wagner it had combat vehicles and other more modern weapons. He added that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his commanders are likely to be especially interested in these weapons.
Source: Elcomercio
I am Jack Morton and I work in 24 News Recorder. I mostly cover world news and I have also authored 24 news recorder. I find this work highly interesting and it allows me to keep up with current events happening around the world.
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