The investigation that reveals how many Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine in 500 days of war

How many Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine since February 2022? That is one of the big questions without an official answer when the 500 days of war have passed. Russia It recognized some 6,000 deaths several months ago, but an independent investigation concludes that the deceased are many more, almost 50,000.

According to the AP agency, the independent Russian media midfielder and jellyfish They worked with a data scientist from a German university and used official Russian government data and other methods to come to that conclusion.

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First, they appealed to the statistical concept used during the covid-19 pandemic to detect the excess mortality. They then checked the official records of inheritances and data from mortality. The specific objective was calculate how many men under the age of 50 died between February 2022 and May 2023 above the average recorded in previous years.

In addition to this, explains AP, they worked with a network of volunteers who delved into social networks and searched for photographs of cemeteries in different parts of Russia for create a database of confirmed war deaths.

By July 7, journalists had identified 27,423 dead Russian soldiers, but more information remained to be analyzed.

Russian soldiers carry wreaths and a photo of 20-year-old Russian serviceman Nikita Avrov, who was killed in action in Ukraine. (Photo: AFP). (-/)

“These are only soldiers we know the name of, and in each case their death is verified by various sources”said Dmitry Treshchanin, editor of midfielder. “The estimate we made with jellyfish It allows us to see the ‘hidden’ deaths, deaths that the Russian government obsessively and unsuccessfully tries to hide,” he added.

journalists from midfielder and jellyfish accessed the records of inheritance processes submitted to the Russian authorities between 2014 and May 2023, containing information on 11 million deceased people.

Thus, the work discovered that in 2022, 25,000 more inheritance processes were opened than expected for men between the ages of 15 and 49. And by May 27, 2023, the number of additional cases had skyrocketed to 47,000. The latter is the figure that the researchers consider to be the closest to the real number of deaths in the war.

The AP agency recalled that in May of this year, The United States had estimated that more than 20,000 Russians died in Ukraine. since December 2023.

While the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom He said last February that in the entire war between 40,000 and 60,000 Russian soldiers had probably been killed.

According to the British, Russia has suffered an average of about 400 daily casualties (dead and wounded) during 17 months of warcreating a combat medical care “crisis” that has likely affected civilian medical services in border areas near Ukraine.

Treshchanin told the AP in an email that the US and UK figures “may or may not be accurate.”

“Even if they have sources in the Russian Defense Ministry, their own data could be incomplete. It is extremely difficult to get all the casualties from the army, Rosgvardia, the Akhmat battalion, various private military companies, of which Wagner is the largest but not the only one. The casualties among prisoners, first recruited by Wagner and now by the Ministry of Defense, another very opaque topic, with a lot of potential for manipulation. Actually, the statistics could give better results.” I note.

The war in Ukraine as of July 11, 2023. (AFP).

On July 8, the 500 days of war between Russia and Ukraine. What initially both the Russians and US intelligence calculated would be a lightning conflict that in just two days would see the fall of kyiv to the forces of Vladimir Putinhe’s leaving for two years. And there are no signs that the end is near.

Currently, Ukraine carry on a counteroffensive in the east and south of the country that is not advancing as quickly as expected. Still, the president Volodymyr Zelensky maintains its goal of recovering all the territory conquered by the Russians, including the annexed peninsula of crimea.

Ukrainian servicemen ride in a tank near the front line in the Kharkiv region, on July 6, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by SERGEY BOBOK / AFP). (SERGEY BOBOK/)

On the Russian side, their forces do not stop launching bombardments against Ukrainian cities. In addition, the fortifications and defense lines they built during the winter are working, slowing down the Ukrainian advance. Those lines of defense have been undermined.

Ukraine nor does it have powerful aviation that can provide cover for its troops on the ground. And the artillery he has received from the West seems insufficient to break the resistance of the Russians.

The war front is about 1,000 kilometers long, and so far Ukrainian troops have not yet been able to break throughsomething that according to the AFP agency causes discomfort in the West.

According to AFP, despite the million-dollar military aid packages from Western powers, since June the Ukrainian army has only managed to recapture a few hundred square kilometers and release a dozen locations.

Aid commitments to Ukraine. (AFP).

That advance is far less than the 2022 counteroffensive, when it reconquered more than 9,000 km2 in just nine days east of Kharkiv. And about 5,000 km2 in November in the region of Kherson.

“The offense is not fast, that’s a fact,” acknowledged Zelenskywhich has been pressuring the United States and its allies for months to give it F-16 fighter jets and longer-range missiles.

“Without long-range weapons, it is difficult to not only carry out offensive missions but also, to be honest, defensive operations,” explained Zelensky.

Source: Elcomercio