In pursuit of Merkel’s successor: chess begins in Germany to establish coalitions and govern

“These are the elections german most exciting of the last 16 years “. This is how the internationalist Francesco Tucci, a professor at the UPC and the PUCP, describes the end of the photograph left by the German election day last Sunday.

For a slight difference, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) took first place from the alliance between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), which for Tucci generates great uncertainty about what will happen in the next few days.

READ ALSO: Berlin backs in referendum the expropriation of 240,000 large real estate apartments

“In European parliamentary systems, it often happens that getting the most votes does not mean that the elections have been won. Negotiating, forming a coalition to govern”.

The result is very tight: the SPD 25.7% was taken; the CDU-CSU, 24,1%, “the worst result”In 70 years; while The Greens, 14.8%; the liberals of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), 11.5%; and the far right Alternative for Germany, 10,3%.

“Therefore, now begins the most problematic part of the process: the negotiations”Says Tucci.

• Germany: Social Democrats win elections with 25.7% of votes
• Scholz and Laschet open a pulse to win partners to govern Germany
• Elections in Germany: Why will the Greens and Liberals be key to forming a government?

Move the chips well

What usually happens, explains the specialist, is that first a coalition is formed in the Bundestag (Federal Parliament) and, later, they vote for the investiture of the new chancellor.

Angela Merkel (CDU) leaves that position and, with it, a void that will be difficult to fill.

“Although who could continue, say, with a ‘Merkelian’ policy is Olaf Scholz of the SPD. It is paradoxical because he belongs to the party that historically rivals the CDU”.

READ ALSO: Olaf Scholz advocates a strong Europe and good transatlantic relations

That means, in Tucci’s eyes, that while Scholz He’s a Social Democrat, he could act like a moderate.

“He is the most ‘Merkelian’ of all the candidates. In addition, he worked with her, he was Vice Chancellor and Minister of Finance, which could make us think that internal and external politics will be maintained”.

“With that in mind, everything points to the formation of a coalition that will exclude the CDU.”.

Tucci argues that there are two reasons for this situation.

The first is that, for a political program issue, “greens don’t get along“With the CDU.

The second is that, their leader and natural replacement for Merkel in the party, Armin Laschet, he was not able to “agglutinate votes”For damage to its image.

“His problems started with the floods. A video was leaked where he was seen laughing during the disaster, which added to the fact that, as governor, his management was not adequate”.

Tucci is even more critical of the CDU. For him, if his candidate was Laschet, it can be sensed that the party rested on its laurels. “With a policy of Merkel’s caliber, it may be that they did not think in the future, in forming a charismatic leader. Now they have to rebuild”.

A better picture

In opposition to Laschet, there is Scholz, who “knows very well politics and the state”. He would also benefit from the image of the Merkel government: one that, for example, approved the existence of the minimum wage, chose to change the energy matrix from nuclear to other alternative sources, and was in solidarity with migration.

“While the Greens did not get along with Merkel, she made some changes to her line, such as changing the country’s power source. She was a special leader. And being moderate, it is possible that Scholz could win his support and that of the liberals.”.

And, of course, at this time, it is about having the image of a conciliator, like the one that the SPD leader has maintained in the government.

“He seems to be Merkel’s successor, in the sense of a moderate policy, but open to change and the improvement of the economy and social issues”.

“If you negotiate well, you can get the majority you need in the Bundestag”.

The second position in the elections went to Armin Laschet and the CDU. AP (Martin Meissner /)

But, of course, it remains to be seen what will happen to the demands of the Liberals and the Greens, the conditions they will put on the table and how the SPD can adapt to accommodate them.

“It seems to me that liberals and Greens will want to negotiate together with the SPD because they will have more power than doing it separately. They will negotiate with each other first and then with the main party”.

“The SPD will have it easier, although something unexpected can always happen, something that was out of the equation. Even so, I see very difficult a government between the CDU, with the Greens and liberals “.

• Germany enters a period of uncertainty after a closed election without a clear replacement for Merkel
• Germany’s new Parliament will have two transgender female MPs for the first time
• Who is Olaf Scholz, the social democrat who is emerging as the new chancellor of Germany
• The militants, in suspense before the uncertain outcome of the elections in Germany
• 4 moments that define Angela Merkel’s 16 years as Chancellor of Germany (and “Queen of Europe”)

.