Elections in Ecuador 2023: “Most likely, the second round will be won by whoever faces correísmo”

Marked for the assassination of the candidate Fernando Villavicencio that shocked the country and with the fear that another act of violence would tarnish the civic day, this Sunday the 20th concluded the first electoral round to define the next president of Ecuador.

LOOK: Luisa González and Daniel Noboa will contest the second round in Ecuador on October 15

The big surprise of the day, without a doubt, was the appearance of the young businessman Daniel Noboa as the second most voted candidate. With this result, the former legislator will also contest the presidency of the country against the Correísmo candidate, Luisa González, in a second round to be held on October 15, according to the calendar established by the National Electoral Council (CNE).

Noboa’s position was surprising because no previous survey placed him in that place. On the contrary, it was expected that the assassination of Villavicencio would end up increasing the votes in favor of his successor, fellow journalist Christian Zurita, who finished in third place.

Trade spoke with Simón Pachano, a professor and researcher at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (Flacso), about Sunday’s results and his first impressions for the second round.

– Fortunately the day ended without any incident to regret…

That’s how it is. Happily there were no more. But it has been a very complex and unusual election in Ecuador, with a surprising result, especially due to the second place of Daniel Noboa.

– What are the causes behind these unexpected results?

Looking for explanations, one could say that the debate influenced this election, but the truth is that the debates are seen by a very small proportion of the voters, so it would not explain the influence on the magnitude of the votes that have been expressed. Another aspect that obviously influenced the election is the murder of Fernando Villavicencio, which removed the entire floor. Possibly this event gave Topic a higher vote, the so-called Ecuadorian Bukele, who reached fourth place. The vote for Noboa, however, I think responds to a phenomenon that we have seen in the rest of Latin America, including Peru.

– Which is it?

The anti-system vote. A vote for an ‘outsider’, even though Noboa is not exactly one because he was a legislator. But he wasn’t a well-known person, so he could be considered an ‘outsider’ in some way. As I repeat, it is a phenomenon that has been seen in Peru, in Chile and probably in Argentina with Javier Milei.

Pachano is one of the most respected political scientists in Ecuador. In addition to his position at Flacso, he is an honorary member of the Ibero-American Institute and directed institutions such as the Ecuadorian Foundation for Democracy or the Institute of Ecuadorian Studies.

– Noboa, in any case, is more identified with the business sector. Are the votes in favor of him not also a message regarding the economic situation of the country?

Yes, he is the son of Álvaro Noboa, who was a presidential candidate five times and who for a long time was the most important businessman in Ecuador, both in the banana sector and for other investments. So, Daniel enjoys an inherited fortune, as does his sister, who is probably stronger than him, but they are not partners. This young man is a businessman who strangely entered politics as a deputy and now surprisingly appears in second place. And I think he has a serious chance of winning the second round.

– Did the polls fail once again?

I am a little more tolerant with polls. The polls are carried out many days before the election and in our countries there is a large part of the electorate that makes the decision at the last moment in front of the polling station. It is very difficult to capture that percentage that goes from 25% to 35%. In this particular election, the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio generated an earthquake in electoral preferences, so no survey would clearly show what was going to happen.

– Now it’s time to think about the second round and anticorreismo is very strong in Ecuador, do you think that this feeling will define the final result?

I would say that the most probable thing is that whoever confronts correísmo will win. Obviously, González’s victory cannot be ruled out, but what happened in 2021 will most likely be repeated when a very bad candidate, such as Guillermo Lasso, a person without a political party or charisma, defeated correísmo despite having had a 13% disadvantage in the first round. That’s a lot. Now the difference would be less, so I think there is a good chance that the correista candidate will lose.

Source: Elcomercio