First Republican debate: Trump’s absence and why all eyes will be on Georgia

The starting signal for the Republicans in the race to return to the White House in 2024 will be given today with a conspicuous absence: the main favorite, donald trump. The former president of the United States, quite comfortable in all the polls, will not be tonight in the first debate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the primary elections of the Republican Party, although that will not prevent him from being the protagonist of the event.

LOOK: The Republicans begin the debates with the absence of Donald Trump as the protagonist

Trump actually has bigger problems to attend to. Despite the requests of the party leadership and Fox News, the chain in charge of the Republican face-to-face, the tycoon confirmed this week that he will not go to the meeting. “The public knows who I am and the successful presidency I had,” he posted on his Truth Social social network. “Therefore, I will not be attending the debates!” he added.

The 77-year-old former president will be, rather, focused on his agenda for tomorrow, when he will have to answer to justice in the fourth criminal case that is ongoing against him.

Trump announced that he will surrender tomorrow to the Georgia authorities after being accused in a criminal case of attempted electoral fraud for having tried to alter the result of the 2020 presidential elections in his favor in this southern state.

Although the development of the process is expected to overshadow the Republican debate, it is a fact that the rest of the candidates of the conservative party will try to improve their options to get closer to the Republican presidential nomination.

Trump’s absence from the debate is not a surprise. “Why would I let people who have 1% or 2% and 0% (in popularity) be hitting me with questions all night?he said in a June interview with Fox News host Bret Baier, who will moderate. The AP agency recalls that the Republican has criticized Fox, accusing it of impartiality and has even been considering various options to broadcast a program at the same time as the debate.

According to US media, a pre-recorded interview of the Republican with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson will be posted on social media as the evening progresses.

For Eduardo Gamarra, Professor of Political Science at Florida International University, Trump’s absence could be summed up in one idea: “eagles don’t catch flies.”

“Trump considers himself more important than the other candidates. I believe that he has much more to lose than to gain in this debate. Combined, everyone else falls short of 30% of the Republican electorate, so Trump sees that there is no point in putting himself out there and being part of that group. Besides, he’s going to be the topic of conversation just the same.”, he tells El Comercio.

Florida Governor and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis. (Photo: AFP) (SUZANNE CORDEIRO/)

Option for its rivals?

Now, is the debate a salute to the flag or can one of the candidates take advantage? The analyzes agree that the face to face could be especially decisive for the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, who remains in second position in the polls, although support for him has been declining.

“Everyone should debate. Everyone has a responsibility to win the votes of the people. Nobody has privileges in this world, least of all in the Republican nomination for presidentDeSantis told Fox News on Monday when asked about Trump.

Also attending the debate will be North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, former Vice President Mike Pence, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former Govs. Chris Christie, Nikki Haley and Asa Hutchinson.

“The debate is an opportunity for some, like DeSantis, to show that he does know how to debate, that he is up to the challenge and up to the other candidates. Now, I think the one who thinks he can win the most is Christie because he is the one with the best preparation for debates.”, says Gamarra.

Beyond the debate, the expert believes that if a candidate other than Trump is sought as the winner in the Republican Party, the best thing to do is reduce the number of contenders. “If the vote remains so divided, Trump will win the nomination yes or yes and despite the 91 charges against him”, he points out.

For now, Trump’s rivals have defended him, or at least have avoided openly criticizing him for his legal troubles, echoing his complaints that the judicial system is cruel to him.

So far, Trump has the backing of a majority of GOP voters. (Photo: AFP) (JOSEPH PREZIOSO /)

trump’s strategy

On Trump’s side, it is clear that his bet continues to be victimization and that he is more focused on his rivalry with who will be the Democratic candidate, President Joe Biden.

The Republican tycoon has openly boasted that the lawsuits against him only make him stronger and has not stopped claiming that he is the victim of a “witch hunt”.

Gamarra believes that Trump is going to take advantage of these days to do two things. “First of all, he’s going to appear in court in Atlanta and that’s going to be news, and second, he’s going to do an interview on Tucker Carlson’s YouTube channel and that’s going to be other news too. The Republican debate is going to be in the news, but only on Fox”, says the expert.

He adds that Trump has nearly 100 charges against him, multiple lawyers retained and huge legal costs, leaving him with no choice but to raise funds to pay his legal bills.

“He has to stay in contention. But since he has more than 60% of the Republican vote and Ron DeSantis has gone down instead of going up, Trump knows that at this moment he has won the primary elections and that he could lose them if he exposes himself too much, which would give strength to candidates who they are looking for anything to gain prominence”, he concludes.

Trump wants to beat Joe Biden and return to the White House in 2024. (Photo: AFP) (ROBYN BECK / AFP/)

Source: Elcomercio