What could be expected from an eventual meeting between Putin and Kim (and how was the last time they met)?

The leaders of Russia and North Korea, Vladimir Putin and kim jong unthey would plan to meet next week in the framework of the Eastern Economic Forum, to be held between September 12 and 15 in Vladivostok, according to US officials quoted by The New York Times and The Washington Post.

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Although the spokesman for the Russian presidency, Dmitri Peskov, indicated that he could not confirm such a meeting, a recent visit by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to the isolated Asian country would suggest that the meeting would be quite probable.

The sources of both newspapers assured that the eventual meeting would seek to address issues such as the sale of weapons, exchange of technology, food and energy.

Relations between North Korea and the then Soviet Union (USSR) date back to the middle of the last century. In 1948, barely a month after the Kim Il Sung regime declared the independence of the northern Korean peninsula, the two governments established diplomatic relations.

The Soviets were instrumental in Kim’s rise to power and militarily supported the North Korean regime during the War with the South (1950-1953), a conflict that ran parallel to the Cold War with the United States.

With the fall of the Soviet Union and the rise of the Russian Federation, the relationship changed drastically. During Boris Yeltsin’s rule (1991-1999), Moscow distanced itself from Pyongyang and instead strengthened its ties with Seoul.

“It was mainly due to the fact that the main interest of the then emerging Russian Federation was no longer the expansion of a Soviet bloc in a geopolitical manner as it was before and this entailed the support of different spheres to some satellite countries such as North Korea, but it happens to a vision of the internal reconstruction of the country, turning a little more to the West”, explains to El Comercio the professor of East Asian Studies at the Faculty of Law and Political Sciences of the University of San Marcos, Marco Carrasco.

When Putin became president in 2000, however, the scenario changed again. “Not so much because of the intention to return to the Soviet bloc but because of the preponderance that Russia once again had at that time, the need to search for alliances begins to be highlighted and within said search it was important to rescue those that had been key to the USSR and had been frozen during the Yeltsin period. Then you see an expansion in the economic cooperation of both countries, all with geopolitical influence in mind. Hence the relevance that North Korea takes on, as an old ally for modern times”, points out Carrasco.

During Boris Yeltsin’s government, Russia withdrew from North Korea and preferred to strengthen its ties with Seoul. (VITALY ARMAND/)

The rumor of the next meeting between Kim and Putin comes after the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, visited the Asian country and was seen with the North Korean leader at an arms exhibition.

Since 2022, the United States has been denouncing that regimes such as North Korea or Iran supply Russia with weapons, the same that is later used in the war against Ukraine. It should be noted that these three governments are subject to international sanctions for reasons such as the development of nuclear weapons, relationship with terrorist organizations and direct participation in armed conflicts.

Despite repeated denials, last week it was confirmed that Pyongyang is supplying artillery shells and rockets to Russian forces.

Shoigu’s visit was followed by a meeting between Russian and North Korean officials to discuss the war between the two countries. A situation that particularly concerned the White House Homeland Security spokesman, John Kirby, who assured that the negotiations between the two countries are advancing “actively.”

Following the latest rumors about the possible summit, Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, explained to the EFE agency that the United States is aware that Kim wants talks on arms sales to Russia to continue. and include “a diplomatic contact at the leadership level in Russia.”

The arrival of the Russian minister at the time represented the first high-level visit since North Korea closed its borders completely in 2020, due to the coronavirus pandemic. An eventual meeting with Putin, moreover, would be the first that Kim has held since then.

However, it would not be the first time that both leaders have met. In April 2019, shortly after the denuclearization talks between Kim and Donald Trump failed, Putin met with the North Korean dictator in the same city where the Forum will now be held: Vladivostok.

“The main differences are that this was done shortly after the denuclearization talks fell apart. In this sense, the 2019 meeting can be interpreted today as a symbolic gesture of a rapprochement that could be had at that time with an increasingly key ally and talk about investment and infrastructure, economic agreements and possible military alliances. Carrasco points out.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visiting the weapons exhibition house with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and members of the military delegation in Pyongyang, on July 27, 2023. (STR /)

According to the analyst, the sanctions imposed by the West since they decided to invade Ukraine have led Russia to turn its gaze towards Asia, where it has several historical allies.

“What is known or conjectured is that Korea would have extended a first invitation to President Putin, but this has had a reply that the North Korean president would rather visit him on Russian territory. Perhaps another thing that would be good to understand is that it does not happen in isolation, but rather within the framework of the Eastern Economic Forum that Russia has been supporting and involves the participation of many leaders from the Far East, from China to Mongolia, Myanmar, among others. . Here we see another example that during the Putin era the need for allies makes Russia look not only at Europe but also at Asia”, explains the expert.

But for the North Korean side, what advantage could he get from this matchup? Carrasco groups them into two levels, one facing the international community and the other with a view to national interests.

“First is the fact that North Korea’s image can catch up with the Central Powers. The fact that it is linked to all this context and the possibility of providing weapons is free publicity for the North Koreans, it is the image they want to give of being able to move certain pieces in global chess. On a second level, the various economic sanctions have undoubtedly limited North Korea’s ability to carry out its military tests. An eventual collaboration with Russia may entail some type of requirement, such as a safeguard that allows them to more comfortably develop their military technology. That is, guarantees to your local defense. Finally, let’s remember that economic support will never be too much for an economy as weak as the North Korean one, ”he assures.

Source: Elcomercio