Renewed fighting in Mali: five minutes to understand the fire threat

This is a conflict that Mali would do just fine without. Facing an increase in attacks from jihadist groups in the north of the country whose progress it is trying to stop, the Malian army must face an additional enemy. Armed groups made up of former Tuareg rebels attacked Malian armed forces (Fama) in the key town of Bourem earlier this week.

There has not been military clashes on this scale since 2015, and the signing of the so-called Algiers Peace Agreement between the central state of Mali and a coalition of armed independence movements, including the outbreak of an uprising in 2012, marked the beginning of the war in Mali. . The military junta, which took power after a coup in 2020, fears renewed fighting could cost it dearly.

Why did they attack the Malian army?

The various armed groups, predominantly Tuareg, present in northern Mali are united in the Coordination of Movements of Azawad (CMA). “Azawad is the Tuareg name for the territory they occupy in northern Mali, as well as four other neighboring African countries. They see this territory as a kind of proto-state, of which they have always claimed membership,” explains Michel Galy, a specialist on sub-Saharan Africa contacted by Le Parisien.

In the peace agreement that these independence movements signed in 2015, “we recognized that they remained in Kidal, a sort of Tuareg city-state in northern Mali, that they kept their weapons, in exchange for which they had to formally recognize the central government Bamako,” continues the researcher, author War in Mali (Decouvert edition). But tensions have continued to rise since the putschist junta took power as its “creed is to return all territory and disarm the Tuaregs.”

This summer, the divisions escalated. Having demanded the withdrawal of foreign anti-jihadist forces, including French ones, the junta in late June demanded before the UN Security Council the withdrawal of Minusma, a 12,500-strong UN mission stationed throughout the country. “The Malian army must retake the Minusma base in Kidal, which the Tuaregs dispute because they believe it belongs to them. This is what triggered the recent clashes,” explains Michel Ghaly.

The separatists did not openly declare war on the central government, but the day before the attack on Burem, the CMA issued a press release declaring that it was in a “time of war” with the junta. A formal declaration of war “would de facto make the peace agreement obsolete and the situation could become very difficult for the transitional government,” warns André Bourgeaud, an anthropologist and research director at the CNRS.

What is the risk for the transition government?

“The worst-case scenario for the government would be for the Tuareg rebels to join forces with Islamist terrorist groups,” says Michel Ghaly. In the north of the country, Malian armed forces, supported by members of the Russian Wagner militia, face a string of attacks from the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM) and groups linked to the Islamic State on the other. state”, which continue to gain strength.

“All these groups usually oppose each other, but a temporary alliance already took place in 2012. If this happened, even with Russian reinforcements, the Malian army would be caught in a pincer movement and would find it difficult to cope with it,” says the Saturday specialist. Sahara of Africa. This is a hypothesis that “should not be downplayed,” André Bourgeau also admits.

In a less catastrophic scenario, only “segmental clashes” could occur, that is, between different actors. “In this situation, the Malian army has a chance to achieve victory” over the Tuareg rebels, says Andre Bourgeau.

Proof that the military junta is restless in the face of this escalation, the Council of Ministers has just adopted a draft resolution calling for the mobilization of reservists who will be called up “in the event of a crisis, natural disaster or war.”