Polish legislative elections: pro-European opposition claims victory

If the results are confirmed, it will mark the end of the eight-year rule of Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s Law and Justice party (PiS). The centrist and pro-European opposition won a parliamentary majority in Poland this Sunday, defeating the ruling nationalist populists and the far right combined, according to exit polls. These elections were seen as decisive for the country’s European future and its relations with Ukraine.

The three opposition parties, the Civic Coalition (CO), the Christian Democrats of the Third Way and the Left, together won 248 seats in the 460-member parliament, against 212 seats for the PiS party and the Confederation (far right) combined. “Poland won, democracy won, we pushed them out of power (…) this is the end of this bad period, this is the end of PiS rule,” said KO President Donald Tusk immediately after the publication of the poll results.

Towards a return to good relations with the EU?

Donald Tusk, 66, was Prime Minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014 and President of the European Council from 2014 to 2019. He promised to restore good relations with the European Union and unlock European funds frozen by Brussels due to disputes that arose during the PiS government’s two terms in office. Donald Tusk has also promised to liberalize abortion rights, a major point of contention with the PiS government, which emphasizes Catholic values.

PiS party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski hailed the relative success of his movement, which will win 200 seats in parliament but fall short of a majority to form a government. “Regardless of whether we are in power or in opposition, (…) we will not allow Poland to be betrayed,” he nevertheless said.

According to Stanislav Moczek, a political scientist and president of the Collegium Civitas University, there is now “a chance for the emergence of an opposition government.” “I think this is actually the end of the PiS government (…) For us, this is a chance to restore our position, especially in Europe,” he said. Michal Baranowski, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund, estimates that Poland can now “return to the decision-making center of the European Union.” He added that the exit poll indicates the possibility of creating a “stable opposition government.”

However, analysts also warn that any government coalition formed by the opposition could face frequent conflicts with President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally.

Record participation

Exit polls do not give potential opposition allies the three-fifths majority needed to override a presidential veto. Turnout was high, with the national figure at 72.9% according to the exit poll. “The level of participation is probably, by far, the highest in the history of the Third Republic,” with 62.7% in 1989, Sylvester Marciniak, president of the National Electoral Commission, told the press.

Many voters expressed disappointment with the government. “It’s time for change,” Ewa Bankowska, a 43-year-old woman who works in finance, told AFP as she voted in Galinow, a town near Warsaw. “I’m worried about the economy. I would like us to develop and the government to stop spending money it doesn’t have.” But Dorota Zbig, a 57-year-old nurse, said the last years of PiS rule “have been very good for me and my family.”

To form a coalition government, KO, Third Way and the left still have to come to an agreement, but their leaders have already announced their willingness to do so. “We will probably wait about twelve hours for the official results (…), then we will sit down to discuss and will definitely come to an agreement,” Donald Tusk assured.

During the election campaign, the PiS party vowed to press ahead with controversial justice reforms that it says are aimed at rooting out corruption but which the EU views as an attack on democracy. The election campaign was marked by brutal personal attacks on Donald Tusk from those in power, who accused him of representing the interests of Berlin, Moscow and Brussels.

Kyiv and its Western allies are watching these elections closely following the recent election in Slovakia of a government hostile to aid to Ukraine. Poland is one of Kyiv’s main supporters and has hosted a million Ukrainian refugees on its soil, but fatigue is growing among Poles. The PiS government has fallen out with Ukraine by imposing an embargo on its grain imports, arguing that it needs to protect Polish farmers.