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A favorite from the arc, but disabled: Maria Corina Machado appears as an almost certain winner of the opposition primaries of Venezuela this Sunday, but his eventual victory does not guarantee that he will be able to face Nicolás Maduro in the 2024 presidential elections. Machado, from the most radical wing of the opposition, is banned from holding public office for 15 years, a sanction to which Chavismo does not give in, despite pressure from United States, which relaxed sanctions after resuming a dialogue process this week. The 21 million Venezuelans registered on the electoral roll are called to vote in this internal process, in which 11 candidates are competing, over whom Machado has astronomical advantages of up to 30 points in the polls.
O primary is organized by the opposition itself, discarding technical assistance from the National Electoral Council (CNE) after months of evasion from the authority, who finally proposed at the last minute to postpone the process for a month in order to participate.
LOOK: What sanctions the US lifted against Venezuela after the political agreement between the opposition and the Maduro government
“This generated enormous logistical problems,” Eugenio Martínez, journalist and electoral expert, explained to AFP.
The opposition will have around 3,000 voting centers, which at maximum capacity would allow participation of 3 million votersalthough this number could be much lower.
Influences Machado’s almost sung victorywhich “discourages” voters, and the challenge of installing the centers – which without the CNE will be located in squares, parks, schools and even in private homes – on the same day as the elections.
Voting takes place from 8:00 am to 4:00 pm local time (12:00 pm – 8:00 pm GMT) before a manual scrutiny (the electoral system in Venezuela It is usually electronic).
O primary It is celebrated five days after the negotiating table between the government and the opposition signed a political agreement that stipulated that the presidential elections be held in the second half of next year with observation from the European Union and other international actors.
The document, signed Barbadosalso includes the respect for “the right of each political actor to freely choose their candidate for the presidential elections”which means respect for the process.
Previously, it was challenged before the Federal Supreme Court by a businessman accused by the traditional opposition of being a collaborationist, but so far justice has not ruled.
The first agreements led to the release of five political prisoners, the temporary relaxation of the embargo on Venezuelan crude oil imposed by the United States In 2019, it was planned to create a fund with Venezuelan money blocked abroad, which will be managed by the UN for social programs.
Dialogue, however has not yet been able to resolve the issue of disqualifications, which for now only affect Machado. Henrique Capriles and Freddy Superlano, also sanctioned, resigned from the primaries.
“The disqualifications are on a red line that is not easy”, stands out Luís Vicente Leãodirector of the research institute Data analysis. “There was not a single moment throughout the entire negotiation process, neither informally nor formally, in which the Venezuelan government produced any type of authorization negotiation.”
The suspension against Machado, initially for 12 months and which ended in 2016, was extended to 15 years on June 30, just when his campaign took off. O Controllerheaded by the now head of the CNE, Elvis Lovingaccused her of corruption and promoting sanctions against the country.
The head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken conditioned the easing of sanctions on compliance with “commitments” such as the creation of “specific processes for the accelerated qualification” of candidates.
““Venezuela does not accept pressure, blackmail, bribery or interference from any power or country.”replied the head of Parliament, Jorge Rodríguezwho also heads the Chavismo delegation.
Venezuela’s opposition has concentrated all its forces on the 2024 presidential elections, a race to which it returns after a decade away from the polls, still criticizing the National Electoral Council (CNE) and full of limitations and contradictions.
In April 2013, when Nicolás Maduro was announced as the winner of the Presidencythe trust of his opponents, until then united in coalition, in the electoral referee was definitively broken. The opposition alleged fraud and did not recognize, even today, the victory of the Chavista leaderobtained with an advantage of 1.5%.
These contested votes were followed by waves of anti-government protests, calls to abstain, and other unsuccessful attempts to remove the chavismo of power, while Matureconsidered undemocratic by several countries, he was re-elected in 2018, as the number of opponents unqualified to challenge him for the position increased.
The same president who, according to the traditional opposition, never won democratic, competitive and transparent elections, is emerging as the opponent to beat in 2024, when anti-Chavism intends to once again unite all its capabilities at the service of a candidacy, without certainty about the viability of this bet.
Although most antichavism He did not contest other presidential elections in the last decade, he made two big electoral bets that he sought to convert into the end of the so-called Bolivarian revolution.
In 2015, after an intense political campaign, they obtained a qualified majority in Parliament, but The Supreme Court challenged three legislators for alleged irregularities in their election, which was never repeated again. The opposition swore the contested and the Legislature was declared in contempt, meaning that none of its actions were obeyed by the remaining institutions.
In 2016, with a country fed up with the general shortage of products and a legitimate Chamber without real power, the idea of asking for a recall against Mature He won the sympathy of the same majority that in the previous year favored the opposition with 67% of the seats.
After street demonstrations in which hundreds of thousands of people participated in favor of the recall, Once again, the Judiciary came to the president’s defense by admitting complaints against the process brought by the party in power.. In consequence, The CNE decided to paralyze the referendum “in accordance” with the courts.
After these two bitter drinks, as the economic crisis worsened, In 2017, the opposition opted for a non-electoral fight, but on the streets, with the largest chain of anti-government protests that Maduro has ever faced, to which he responded with repression, which resulted in around 120 deaths and the international community’s almost unanimous repudiation of the president.
With the arrival of the decade, the opposition was diluted into several divisions to the point that it is not known how many factions identified as anti-Chavistas exist today, some with traditional ideals and others less critical of the Government, for which they are accused of being accomplices of power, the so-called political “scorpions” of the country.
After some electoral attempts, with which parties and leaders sought to break with the abstentionist path in 2020 and 2021, now no one is calling for non-voting and, on the contrary, the country is fully entering an electoral environment that the opposition intends to take advantage of. attack chavismo.
According to research, So far, no one has a better chance of gathering the necessary support than former deputy María Corina Machado who, at the same time, is the least viable candidate due to a political disqualification imposed on her by the Comptroller General in 2015, according to which she is prohibited from holding elected positions until July 2030.
Practically closed to dialogue with the party in power, Machado was unable to draw a clear line that would allow him to convert his popular support into a candidacy in 2024 or in a scenario in which his eventual victory is accepted and respected by the institutions, controlled by Chavismo since 1999.
To top it off, the Government and the traditional opposition signed an agreement this week on electoral guarantees, which sets the presidential elections for the second half of the year and with international observation, but – stressed the Executive – without allowing the competition of those who are disqualified.
Source: Elcomercio
I am Jack Morton and I work in 24 News Recorder. I mostly cover world news and I have also authored 24 news recorder. I find this work highly interesting and it allows me to keep up with current events happening around the world.
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