Elections in Argentina: “Massa’s victory is a big surprise, there was a fear factor regarding Milei”

Election day in Argentina It was expected to be something unprecedented, but the results surprised even the most incredulous. The libertarian Javier Milei He was the favorite in the polls and for weeks his possible victory in the first round was being considered. However, the flagship of the “anti-caste” struggle will contest the presidency in a second round on November 19, after coming in second place. Your rival and winner of the contest on Sunday, the 22nd, will be the official Sergio Massacurrent Minister of Economy and under whose administration inflation soared to almost 140% per year.

TO LOOK: Results of the 2023 Argentine elections: Massa wins the first round and will compete in the second round with Milei

Massa, candidate of the Unión por la Patria coalition, obtained 36.54% of the votes compared to Milei, representative of La Libertad Avanza, who obtained 30.06%, according to a count from 96.31% of the polling stations. Patricia Bullrich, candidate for the conservative coalition Together for Change, came in third place, with 24%. The three positioned themselves as competitive candidates for this election, a situation not seen in recent decades.

With the second round confirmed, Massa and Milei now begin the search for support to win the presidency. “The fissure has died and a new stage begins,” said the person in charge. “All of us who want change have to work together”, said, in turn, the libertarian who proposes dollarizing the economy and eliminating the central bank.

The trade talked about the electoral result with Juan Negri, an Argentine political scientist at Torcuato di Tella University, who predicts a fierce campaign with serious challenges for both candidates.

—How do you explain Sergio Massa’s triumph?

It was a big surprise. I think there was a fear factor regarding Milei. In other words, being seen as a leap into the unknown, being seen as the candidate who had delusional proposals and the flow of new voters harmed him. Milei didn’t lose votes, but she hasn’t grown since the primaries, she continues to stagnate and this has to do with the fear of a candidate with such crazy proposals.

Presidential candidate Sergio Massa speaks after learning the results of the first round of the Argentine elections. (Photo: EFE)

—Why was it Massa and not Bullrich who managed to capitalize on Milei’s fear?

I believe that after the primary elections, Massa emerges as the clearest anti-Milei candidate. For much of the campaign, up until PASO, Bullrich and Milei had many similarities. The result of the primaries, in which Milei comes first, makes Massa’s job easier. Because when Milei comes out first the election becomes a kind of Milei or anti-Milei and then Massa was more prepared to deal with it.

—How much did the current government’s actions influence Massa’s victory?

Massa’s merit is to have separated his candidacy from government management. In other words, it is very difficult to be in favor of a government with such weak numbers. In fact, Peronism held its worst presidential election in history. We are talking about a Peronism that derives virtue from necessity, that draws water from the stones, but in reality it is a terrible choice for Peronism. It is already a miracle that Massa came first as Minister of Economy in this government.

—The polls pointed to Milei as the clear favorite, but in the end he obtained the same percentage of votes as in the primaries. What does this result mean for Milei?

Milei tried to appear positive and cheerful in his campaign command, but the truth is that there must have been an air of defeat around him. There was an expectation that he would start first and finish second, I think there is an important component of disappointment.

Argentine congressman and Alianza Avanzas La Libertad presidential candidate Javier Milei (C) hugs Buenos Aires mayoral candidate Ramiro Marra (L) and Buenos Aires gubernatorial candidate Carolina Piparo (R) during a rally after knowing the results. (Photo: AFP)

—Milei will have to rethink her strategy to attract more votes, which means resorting to moderation. How difficult could this be for him?

It will be difficult for him. He tried this in the speech he gave after learning the results. He tried to appear much more moderate, he emphasized that citizens would not lose rights, but Massa is more prepared than him to make a more centrist speech, we will have to see how Milei responds to the challenge. In his favor, Massa’s economy is in a terrible situation, so this will also be a tool that can help him.

—Where could Patricia Bullrich’s votes go?

I believe there are a lot of votes for Patricia Bullrich, who is deeply anti-Peronist, so there is a significant chance that this will go to Milei. In general, this second round will be very competitive.

—Both Massa and Milei tried to build bridges with other political forces. What do you expect from the new campaign that starts close to the second round?

I see Massa building towards the center, with a discourse of democracy versus anti-democracy, a plural, broad discourse, with something for everyone, for students, for retirees, for traders. And I see Milei more engaged in a discourse of continuity versus change, a more anti-Kirchnerist discourse.

Source: Elcomercio