Ecuador: security crisis and extreme violence place the country at an unprecedented crossroads

The security crisis and the extreme violence experienced Ecuador and that led the president Daniel Noboa Decreeing a state of emergency and declaring the existence of an internal armed conflict reveals that the country faces “a critical crossroads”, according to jurist and political scientist Daniel Zovatto, co-author of the Political Risk Index in Latin America 2024, presented this week.

These are the keys that, in the opinion of this researcher from the Center for International Studies at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, define the Ecuadorian conflict.

Weak president and polarized society

The president Daniel NoboaNew to the position and with a short mandate of fifteen months, he faces the challenge of governing in a politically polarized environment.

The lack of a majority in Congress It further complicates their efforts to address the security crisis.

Correismo as the main opposition

The opposition led by Correismo, a movement linked to the former president Rafael Corrêa, adds an element of uncertainty.

The willingness of this faction to collaborate with the Government to overcome the crisis is questionable, which could make stabilization efforts even more difficult.

Weak institutions and the State without a monopoly on force

The institutional fragility of the Ecuadorian State It is revealed in its inability to maintain a monopoly on the legitimate use of force.

The situation in prisons, converted into barracks for criminal groups, reveals the lack of control and effective management of the prison system.

Presence of international posters

The participation of Mexican cartels and the Albanian mafia in Ecuador increases the complexity of the situation. The country’s geography, with strategic ports facing the Pacific, facilitates drug trafficking activities and other transnational crimes.

Military personnel carry out a control operation at the La Marin central public transport station today, January 12, 2024, in Quito (Ecuador) | Photo: EFE/ José Jácome

Committed Armed Forces and Police

Corruption and infiltration in the Armed ForcesAdshow and the Police raise questions about their ability to deal effectively with the situation. The need for a coordinated and strong response becomes essential.

Dollar currency and transaction facilitation

The use of the dollar as official currency facilitates illegal transactions and makes it difficult to locate funds related to criminal activities, adding an additional challenge to the fight against organized crime.

Porous borders and unemployment

The porous borders with neighboring countries, such as Colombia and Peru, contribute to the mobility of criminal groups. What is more, Unemployment and lack of opportunities may be fueling the incorporation of people into these organizations.

The combination of these factors has led Ecuador to a situation of extreme complexity, in which the Government faces the urgent task of restoring stability and security in the country.

Effective coordination, strengthening institutions and collaboration with the international community are crucial elements to overcome this unprecedented crisis.

Source: Elcomercio