Taiwan: Why new President Lai Ching-te worries China

China’s reaction was as strong as expected. Hours after the results of Taiwan’s presidential election were released, won by Lai Ching-te, a candidate hated by Beijing, which views him as a separatist, the country made it clear that it would not tolerate “any action.” separatist activities” on the island. The vote “will not hinder the inevitable trend of reunification with China,” a spokesman for the agency responsible for relations with Taiwan also said. The statements are commensurate with the revulsion the man generates within the Chinese Communist Party, for which “reunification” of a small territory through negotiation or force is a fundamental goal.

Thus, China invited the Taiwanese to “make the right choice” during this election. Intimidation attempts have also increased in recent days, with five Chinese balloons crossing the strait’s median line on Thursday, according to Taiwan’s Defense Ministry, which also spotted 10 aircraft and six warships.

These threats were not enough. With just over 40% of the vote, Lai Ching-te was elected president of Taiwan on Saturday. In May, he will succeed Tsai Ing-wen, whose vice president he served for several years. The Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) candidate is ahead of his main rival, 66-year-old Hou Yu-yi, who has advocated rapprochement with Beijing. “Congratulations to Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-him (his partner) in their elections, hoping that they will not disappoint the expectations of the Taiwanese people,” the latter reacted, finishing second with just over 30% of the votes.

Lai Ching-te, for his part, congratulated his voters for “successfully resisting attempts by outside forces to influence these elections.” “We are determined to protect Taiwan from China’s continued threats and intimidation,” he assured his cheering supporters, waving red and green flags.

In favor of the status quo

The 64-year-old entered politics in the 1990s, especially in the face of military pressure from China, at a time when Taiwan was opening up to democracy. A doctor by training, he graduated from Harvard and then climbed the political ladder one after another: first deputy, then mayor, he became Prime Minister Tsai Ing-wen in 2016. It was during this time that he faced parliamentary comments that earned him the enmity of Beijing. “I am a pragmatic independence fighter,” he said then.

Claims he has never denied, although his stance appears to have softened since then. Thus, Lai Ching-te pledged during the election campaign his “unwavering” support for maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. In other words, no independence, no attachment to China.

These statements reflect “a fairly balanced position promising (that there will be) no unpleasant surprises,” points out Mathieu Duchatel, director of the Asia program at the Montaigne Institute, whom Lai Ching-te “wants to reassure everyone.” “But on China’s side there are very strong doubts about its deep convictions, which it views as a desire for independence,” the researcher adds.

Thus, Beijing warned before the elections about the “serious danger” that, in its opinion, Lai Ching-te poses. In August, Chinese authorities already called him a “real troublemaker” after a visit to the United States.

His election to the presidency heightens fears of conflict, even though the situation is already tense. In mid-September, Taiwanese authorities spotted about a hundred Chinese aircraft and nine ships near the island. The maneuver, which was a “record in the last (period),” was confirmed by Taiwan’s Defense Ministry, condemning China’s “persistent military persecution.”

Caution

China also confirmed on Saturday that it will “resolutely oppose (…) foreign interference.” A threat directed against the United States, Taiwan’s allies and those who promised to support it in the event of an invasion.

Washington, for its part, congratulated Lai Ching-te on his victory, as well as “the Taiwanese people for once again demonstrating the strength of their strong democratic system and electoral process.” An American delegation is expected to be on the island in the coming days.

Announcing the “informal” trip on Thursday, a senior US official (whose name was not disclosed) warned: “It would be provocative for Beijing to respond (to the election result) with increased military pressure or coercive action.”