American presidential elections: how are the Republican primaries going?

The US presidential election is an endurance race. On the road to the White House, the Republican primary will determine which candidate faces outgoing President Joe Biden, who is expected to be inaugurated barring any major surprises. The primary begins this Monday, as tradition dictates, with the first Iowa caucuses.

Indirect voting

Primary votes will be distributed over 5 months, until June 4, in 50 US states, as well as the District of Columbia and small territories (Guam, Puerto Rico, etc.). The stated purpose of this unique mechanism is to allow citizens, rather than political parties themselves, to choose who will represent the Republican Party in the November 5 presidential election. This is an indirect vote: voters vote for local delegates, who are then responsible for choosing the foal.

Thus, presidential candidates will need to receive a majority of the vote to be nominated when the Republican National Convention takes place July 15-18 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The size of each state’s delegation depends on its population. The most are in California (169), Texas (162), Florida (125) and New York (91).

The rules vary in each state. Some organize primaries that are open to all voters (Texas, Louisiana, Michigan, etc.) in which people not affiliated with the party can vote. Others prefer closed voting (New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc.), meaning that only those registered can vote.

What is a “meeting”?

A half-dozen states have caucuses instead of primaries. Caucuses are local meetings where voters come together to discuss and express their preference for a candidate. Unlike primaries, they involve open debate and public voting without polling stations or voting booths. For Republicans – in Nevada, the Dakotas, Idaho and even Iowa – voting is done by secret ballot, sometimes on a simple piece of paper.

For Democrats, on the contrary, it is public, and faction members are physically divided into several groups depending on the candidate they support. This voting method, a relic of participatory democracy, is being used less and less due to its organizational complexity.

Proportional or winner-take-all?

To be included in the presidential race, candidates must win a majority of delegates, who will then vote at conventions this summer. States have different rules for determining the number of delegates awarded to candidates based on their performance in primaries and caucuses. In most cases, whoever gets the most votes wins the entire bet and wins all the delegates at stake. This is a winner-take-all principle.

Other states choose proportional representation. Under this system, candidates for the party nomination are allocated delegates in proportion to the share of votes they receive in caucuses or primaries. Finally, there are states that use a hybrid system.

However, according to US media CNN, it may have to wait until May or June before the candidate receives enough votes to be confident of winning the Republican nomination. The winner will be presented at the Republican National Convention, July 15-18 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. More than 2,400 delegates are expected to attend.

Why is Super Tuesday considered a milestone?

Super Tuesday, which takes place on March 5, is a crucial moment in the electoral process, as primaries, both Democratic and Republican, take place simultaneously in about fifteen states, some of which are very important. In the Republican camp, 874 delegates will be on the line. This day could have a significant impact on the presidential race, and generally provides a clear picture of the front-runner for the nomination.

Who are the favorites?

Despite numerous legal troubles, Donald Trump is on track to win this crucial election battle, with polls showing him one of the largest leads ever seen over his rivals, with nearly 50% of the vote.

Five candidates are vying to block his path to the White House, but only two appear to have a chance yet. Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, the only woman in the race, is benefiting from a recent surge in polls. The 50-year-old is the new darling of the right, highly sought after, particularly in business circles.

For Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a conservative with shocking positions on immigration and abortion, the 40-year-old has made a bet on Iowa, traveling to each of the 99 counties in recent months. Therefore, observers do not exclude that one or another option will present a surprise and eat up part of Donald Trump’s huge advantage. The debate between the candidates will take place on January 21, less than a week after the Iowa caucuses.