Israel-Hamas: hostages, truce in Gaza, the role of the US and Qatar… what we know about a possible agreement

Will hopes for a new truce finally come true? Negotiations have been ongoing for several weeks, but in recent days they have taken a more serious turn. Israel and Hamas are discussing a plan to suspend hostilities, but many points remain blocked. Mediators try to convince both sides.

What does the truce plan contain?

Details have not been released and the project is not set in stone as discussions have not been completed… especially since both sides have not reached an agreement. According to Reuters, Hamas has proposed a three-stage plan. First, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from populated areas of the enclave and permission to rebuild hospitals and refugee camps. During this period, women, men under 19, elderly and sick people abducted on October 7 and still held in the Gaza Strip will be released in exchange for Palestinian women and children held captive in the Jewish state.

This is followed by the release of all Israeli male hostages in exchange for the return of a number of Palestinian prisoners, some of whom received life sentences. The second stage, which will be accompanied by the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip.

Finally, a period of 45 days during which the bodies of those killed on both sides will be exchanged and after which Hamas hopes to reach an agreement to end the war. According to Israeli security sources, about 30 hostages were killed.

Who are the intermediaries?

Since the outbreak of the conflict following the unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, the United States, Egypt and Qatar have played important roles in negotiations between the two warring sides. US diplomacy chief Antony Blinken is due to discuss the Hamas response with Israeli leaders this Wednesday as part of his fifth tour of the Middle East.

A new draft agreement was drawn up in Paris at the end of January by Qatari mediators, including the prime minister, American and Egyptian.

Where are the discussions?

On Tuesday, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said Doha had “received a response from Hamas regarding the general framework of the hostage agreement.” This response contains a few comments, but overall it is positive.” He even said he was “optimistic” about the possibility of success in the negotiations.

This response from the Palestinian Islamist movement was transmitted to Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service. “Details are being carefully studied by officials involved in the negotiations,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement.

“There is still a lot of work to be done (conclude a new truce). But we continue to believe that an agreement is possible, even necessary, and we will continue to work tirelessly to achieve it,” Antony Blinken said on Tuesday.

What’s stuck?

There are several stumbling blocks to the agreement. Starting with the very principle of cessation of hostilities. Hamas demands a ceasefire, that is, a cessation of hostilities, before entering into any agreement. For its part, Israel only wants a break since Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to destroy Hamas. On Tuesday, the Israeli Prime Minister confirmed: “We are on the path to complete victory and will not stop. This is the position of the vast majority of the population.”

“We are against the ceasefire,” confirmed Alona Fischer Kamm, Israeli Ambassador and Chargé d’Affaires to France, on BFMTV-RMC this Wednesday. “We must be sure that the hostages are freed and Hamas is eradicated, until then there will be no ceasefire, we are talking about a truce,” she insisted.

The profile of Palestinian prisoners who will be released could also become an issue. “The question is whether Israel is ready to release people accused of committing bloody crimes,” which was not the case during the first truce, David Rigoulet-Rose explained to a Parisian at the end of January.