War in Ukraine: What does the fall of Avdíivka mean and to what extent does blocked US aid have to do with it?

Since October last year, the military forces of the Ukraineoutnumbered and equipped, had been resisting the daily attack of troops from Vladimir Putin in Avdíivka, a city that has been on the front line since pro-Russian separatists rebelled against Kiev in the spring of 2014. Finally, this Saturday the Government of Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the withdrawal, remaining under full Russian control.

This is the biggest victory of Russia since the failed counter-offensive of Ukraine launched in June last year, after accumulating weapons sent by the West during the winter.

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But Russia paid a high cost to achieve this victory in the destroyed Avdiivkaa small industrial town located in the east of Ukraineon the heights of the basin Donbass and about 10 km from Donetskthe capital of pro-Russian separatists.

Ukrainian troops withdraw from Avdiivka. (AFP).

Zelensky stated on Saturday that for every Ukrainian soldier lost in Avdiivka and its surroundings, seven Russians died.

In December, US officials estimated that the Russian military had suffered more than 13,000 casualties along the axis. Avdiivka-Novopavlivka in just a few weeks.

According to the news network CNN, the Russians began the attack on Avdiivka with heavy armament, but suffered heavy losses, in part due to precision strikes with Ukrainian drones.

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This forced Moscow to change tactics and began sending dozens of small infantry squads to fight hand-to-hand with the Ukrainians.

In December, the Ukrainian military recognized that the concentration of Russian forces was causing Moscow to advance Avdiivka. The then commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhnyi, said that “the enemy has the ability to concentrate its forces, including artillery and aviation, in one direction or another. And they can achieve this in two or three months the city [Avdíivka] has the same fate as Bakhmut”, which dropped in spring 2023.

Friday, Maksim Zhoryndeputy commander of 3rd Ukrainian Assault Brigadestated that his men were outnumbered 15 to one and that the Russians had sent seven brigades to the battlefield, totaling around 15,000 men.

This photo taken and released by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Service on November 30, 2023 shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi (R) visiting a command post. (AFP). (FLYER/)

Thus, the total superiority of Russian forces made the defense of Avdiivka unsustainable and the Ukrainian military was at risk of being completely surrounded. Therefore, the new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian military forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyiordered a total withdrawal on Saturday.

“To avoid being surrounded, it was decided to retreat to other lines. This does not mean that (…) Russia captured something, he didn’t capture anything”, said the president. Zelensky during the Munich Security Conference.

This situation occurs in a context in which Ukraine stopped receiving aid from the United Statesa country where Republicans in Congress have blocked more than 60 billion dollars since the end of last year, due to a dispute with the president’s administration Joe Biden on migration and border security.

These are the keys to understanding what victory of Russians in Avdiivka:

Ukrainian military personnel pile up bags of earth to build a fortification not far from the city of Avdiivka, Donetsk region, on February 17, 2024. (Photo by Anatolii STEPANOV/AFP). (ANATOLII STEPANOV/)

Even before the current war between Russia and Ukraine started in February 2022, Avdiivka It had 34,000 inhabitants. But by Saturday there was almost no one left, only 1,000 people refused to leave the city.

As the AFP agency recalls, in July 2014 Avdiivka was briefly taken over by pro-Russian separatists, but returned to the hands of Ukrainewho managed to stay there until Saturday.

This December 29, 2023 photo shows President Volodymyr Zelensky recording a speech in front of a sign that says “Avdiivka is Ukraine.” (AFP). (FLYER/)

Is the fall of Avdiivka a strategic victory for Russia? “Avdíivka has a great symbolic value, but strategically it is insignificant,” Ivan Kliszcz, from the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Estonia, told AFP.

Although Gustav Gressel, an expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), thinks that for Ukraine Avdiivka could have been a good starting point for an offensive aimed at liberating Donetsk.

“But Ukraine It will not be possible to carry it out for at least two years and there is no point in sacrificing soldiers now,” Gressel said.

In turn, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicated that for Putin, the achievement of Avdiivka It is a “significant victory before the presidential elections next March”, in which he intends to be re-elected by an overwhelming majority.

Military aid from the United States and Europe to Ukraine. (AFP).

After the February 2022 Russian invasion, a first counteroffensive by Ukrainesupported by war material delivered by United States and its alliesallowed him to recover areas in the regions of Kherson It is Kharkiv.

By 2023, Ukraine It accumulated more sophisticated Western weaponry to liberate more areas when winter ended. Even the president Zelensky He talked about going to the peninsula of Crimeaattached by Russia in 2014.

But The counteroffensive launched in June was a failure. Ukraine was unable to break through the fortifications built by the Russians in the winter months in its defense lines.

Added to this failure of the counteroffensive was the lack of help from U.Swhich since the end of 2023 has blocked in its Congress an allocation of more than 60 billion dollars for Ukraine.

The president Joe Biden spoke on Saturday with Zelensky. During the conversation, The American directly linked Ukraine’s withdrawal from the important city of Avdiivka to the inability of his country’s Congress to approve more aid for Kiev..

“This morning, the army of Ukraine was forced to withdraw Avdiivka after Ukrainian soldiers had to ration ammunition due to supply shortages as a result of Congressional inaction, resulting in the first notable advances Russia in months. “President Biden has emphasized the need for Congress to urgently pass the supplemental national security funding bill to resupply Ukrainian forces,” the White House said in a statement.

In Europe, the head of European Union diplomacy, Josep Borrellsaid on Sunday that “we are in a situation of war” and We must accelerate the delivery of weapons to Ukraine because “we cannot wait any longer”, as the conflict can be resolved in a few months on the battlefield.

“We have to be able to finance, put in the will, change procedures (…) Now, in three months, things will be decided on the battlefield and we cannot wait any longer”, he stressed. Borrell.

A Ukrainian serviceman checks a tank after maintenance not far from Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on February 5, 2024. (Photo by Genya SAVILOV/AFP). (GENIA SAVILOV/)

Ukraine I still haven’t received the F-16 aircraft who claimed so much Zelensky to the United States and its allies. Only the training of Ukrainian pilots for the use of these ships has been completed.

Saturday, Zelensky insisted that Ukraine needs more air defense systems to end Russian dominance in the air. Not only that, he said that air power would allow him to regain the initiative on the battlefield.

While Borrell He maintained on Sunday that if European Union countries had agreed to send weapons and military equipment to Ukraine more quickly “perhaps the war would have been different”.

He added that The Europeans “hesitated a lot” and on “many occasions” for fear of the conflict escalating whenever the debate over authorizing new military equipment, such as tanks, was on the table Leopardthe missiles Patriot or the fighters F-16.

An American-made F-16 fighter jet. (AFP).

He highlighted that, in the end, European governments ended up authorizing the sending of Leopards, Patriots and F-16s, but after long debates between community partners.

The EFE agency indicated that Ukraine also urgently needs ammunition to try to confront the Russian advance on the front line. recalled that the European Union helped Ukraine with 88 billion euros, of which 28 billion were allocated to armaments. It has now allocated a further 50 billion euros for four years of aid and is working to increase military support in 2024 with a further 5 billion.

A CNN analysis concluded that Ukraine’s biggest problem is that it is defending a front line 1,000 kilometers long, with a chronic shortage of artillery shells and other ammunition.

Furthermore, CNN indicates the best units of Ukraine They have been fighting almost non-stop for two years, while Russia He mobilized an additional 300,000 troops to increase his numerical superiority.

Add CNN this Ukrainians will only be able to prevail over Russians with a radical change in technology and a greater injection of Western hardware. The arrival of F-16 aircraft is expected to tip the scales in the sky, but long-range missile systems to reach the Russian rear are also an urgent need for Ukrainealthough many Western governments are unwilling to hand them over.

Source: Elcomercio