What is Russia looking for in Latin America with Lavrov’s visit to Cuba, Venezuela and Brazil?

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Sergei Lavrovarrived this Tuesday at Venezuelasecond destination on the tour he has been doing in Latin America, where he has already visited Cuba and would close in the next few days in Brazil.

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During his stay in Venezuela, Lavrov will meet with Nicolás Maduro to talk about “key issues”of bilateral cooperation. In addition, he will meet with his Venezuelan counterpart, Yvan Gil, and the executive vice president, Delcy Rodríguez.

This new meeting of Russian and Venezuelan authorities is part of a profound rapprochement between the two countries since Vladimir Putin’s regime launched the military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Last year alone, Maduro and Putin had two phone calls, Gil visited Russia and senior officials visited the Caribbean country on several occasions. Furthermore, in October, both nations signed 16 agreements on energy, tourism and military cooperation.

A trip by Maduro to Russia has been pending for a few months and both Moscow and Caracas are looking to make it happen soon. Furthermore, Venezuela confirmed itself as Russia’s main trading partner in the region after exchange between the two countries grew 70% in the first half of 2023.

“Venezuela is a strategic partner and ally of Russia. Bilateral relations based on strong bonds of friendship and solidarity are on the rise and we are actively developing them in all key areas“, indicated the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs through a message on Telegram.

Lavrov and Maduro talk after a meeting they had at Miraflores Palace during the Russian Foreign Minister’s visit to Caracas in April 2023. (YURI CORTEZ / AFP/)

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia refocused its attention on Latin America in the late 1990s and early 2000s. During the first decade of the new millennium, Putin’s regime found favor with both former allies of the Soviets. and in those anti-American governments that proliferated in the region, such as that of Evo Morales in Bolivia, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Argentina, Rafael Correa in Ecuador and, of course, that of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela.

However, currently, with the political turn in most of the governments mentioned above, the war unleashed in Ukraine and the recent death of opponent Alexei Navalny in a Siberian prison, the Russians have lost an important share of influence in the region.

“It would be advisable to identify the countries that Lavrov visits. It is not Latin America in general, but countries that are already on the Russian side or are close to being so. Cuba and Venezuela do not have many alternatives other than Russia. And in Brazil it seems that Lula’s ideological or personal rejection of the United States brings him increasingly closer to Russia. Lavrov is not trying to win new friends in Latin America, but rather to strengthen relationships with the friends he already has.“, he comments The trade international analyst Roberto Heimovits.

A reflection of this is that, as happened with Venezuela, Russia and Cuba maintained an active travel schedule for senior officials during 2023. Lavrov, for example, is visiting the island for the second time in less than a year. Duma President Viacheslav Volodin was on Cuban soil a few months ago, while Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero did the same when he visited Moscow.

The Russian government’s business advisor Boris Titov and the director of the oil company Rosneft, Igor Sechin, were also on the island. In November 2022, Díaz-Canel was in Russia.

Cuba is one of the few Latin American countries that has refused to condemn Russia for the war in Ukraine and has always maintained the need for a negotiated solution.

“Cuba, above all, has geopolitical and military importance because, other than a little nickel, it is an important source of raw materials for Russia. Furthermore, due to poverty and the Cuban economy, it is not a favorable market,” says Heimovits.

Cuba is currently going through one of the worst economic crises in recent decades, with a serious fuel shortage that is causing continuous power cuts on the island. And although both Moscow and Havana seek to highlight the growing commercial exchange they maintain, the truth is that the Russians have not done much to reverse this situation.

Since the middle of last year, Russia and Cuba announced an agreement for the island to receive shipments of oil and grains from the Eurasian giant, in addition to cooperation agreements on energy issues; However, to date the crisis remains in the Caribbean country.

“It seems difficult to me that Russia can supply fuel and grain to Cuba. Russia resists the West’s strong embargo but for war it needs all its resources, in addition to importing North Korean ammunition and purchasing electronic components blocked on the black market. “Russia is not in a position to subsidize Cuba as the Soviet Union did at the time.”says Heimovits.

It is also worth mentioning the reports that appeared in the foreign press in mid-2023, when they revealed that Russia was recruiting Cuban civilians to fight in the war in Ukraine. According to Ambassador Ruslan Spirin, Ukraine’s special representative for Latin America and the Caribbean, Kiev estimates that at least 400 Cubans fought for Russia.

Ukrainian deputy Maryan Zablotskyi, on the other hand, raised the number to between 1,500 and 3,000 Cubans. Havana responded by ensuring that they had managed to dismantle a human trafficking network that was behind the aforementioned recruitments and condemning mercenarism.

As with Cuba, the analyst believes that Russia would seek to secure a better geographic position with Venezuela. “Venezuela also has geopolitical importance due to its position in the Caribbean. We could mention oil, but ultimately it would not be in Russia’s interest for the Venezuelan oil industry to revive from the catastrophic state it is in, because if its supply increases, it would lower the price of the Russian oil that keeps its economy afloat. . Perhaps Lavrov is trying to woo Venezuela, offering support in the dispute with Guyana that Maduro is trying to revive.“, ensures.

At the end of last year, Maduro reignited a diplomatic dispute that both countries have been facing for at least 100 years. A controversial referendum in which the Venezuelan population was consulted on a possible annexation of Essequibo increased tensions to the point where the United States and the United Kingdom mobilized military elements in the former British colony to dissuade Caracas.

In December, the United Kingdom sent the patrol ship HMS Trent to the coast of Guyana in the face of growing tension with Venezuela over the Essequibo.

For Heimovits, a Russian intervention in favor of Venezuela could create the perception that scenarios like those of the Cold War are being revived, although he clarifies that Moscow’s capacity is now much more limited.

“It could be a source of additional friction between the two powers. Probably because Putin feels emboldened by Republican obstruction in the US House of Representatives of sending new military aid to Ukraine. Putin believes he could score one more point by upsetting the US in Guyana, but in reality, given the Caribbean’s distance from Russia, it would not be a good bet for Maduro to count on being able to get involved in Guyana with impunity because Russian support is unlikely to be possible. will materialize into something substantial”, says the expert.

While in the Brazilian case, Moscow would prefer to seek the support of an important diplomatic actor amid the massive international condemnation of the war. During his participation as a guest at the annual African Union summit in Ethiopia, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva avoided blaming Putin for Navalny’s recent death.

“Why rush to accuse?“, said the 78-year-old president.

Lula avoided accusing Putin of Navalny’s death. (SÉRGIO LIMA/)

“Russia mainly seeks diplomatic support from Brazil for the war in Ukraine”, highlights Heimovits. “In principle, it would give the image that Russia is not isolated and that there is an important country in the Global South that supports it. Let’s not forget that they are both part of the BRICs, but none of the four original members, India and China, are growing while the Russians and Brazilians have much lower growth rates. Support would be diplomatic, but in concrete terms Brazil could not do much”.

Source: Elcomercio