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The primaries took place on Tuesday, the 27th, in Michigan seemed to end without major incident, after the current president Joe Biden won with 81.1% of the Democratic vote and his predecessor, donald trump, did the same by obtaining 68.2% of the vote among Republicans. However, Biden’s victory was undermined by a significant protest vote from those who reject the support that the current United States government is providing to the Israel in the war waged against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
TO LOOK: Biden and Trump win Michigan primaries and get closer to rematch
With 99% of votes counted, the “uncommitted” option, equivalent to a blank vote in our electoral system, garnered a surprising 13.3% support among Michigan Democrats.
The result surpassed the 10% sought by the organizations Listen to Michigan and Our Revolution, which represent the Arab-Muslim and progressive votes in the state, respectively. Both groups carried out a campaign to encourage blank voting in protest against the support that the US government provides to Israel in the war it has been waging against the terrorist group Hamas since October 7 last year.
The conflict, triggered after an attack that left at least 1,200 dead in the Hebrew country, left almost 30,000 dead and another 70,000 injured in the Palestinian enclave, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health.
Much of the strip has also been reduced to rubble as a result of Israeli bombing and the UN estimates that around 2 million Gazans have been displaced by the conflict.
Multiple attempts to reach a ceasefire between both sides have failed during these months and Israel has announced that an operation in southern Gaza is inevitable.
“President Biden has been a successful candidate in the past, representing a broad coalition, but he does not currently represent the vast majority of Democrats who want a ceasefire and an end to funding for Israel’s war in Gaza.,” the Listen to Michigan organization says on its website.
Since the start of the war, the United States has sent approximately $14.5 billion in military aid to Israel.
The group critical of Biden’s foreign policy also recalls in its platform that in 2016 the Democrat won that state by a difference of just 10,000 votes. The total number of ‘uncommitted’ votes recorded on Tuesday was more than 100 thousand.
Given this, it remains to be seen what the final impact of dissidents will be on November’s presidential elections.
“This will not affect Biden’s nomination in any way. But it is a signal that they are sending him considering that his victory over Trump in the last elections was very close. The message is that maybe they can’t withdraw his candidacy and maybe that won’t affect him now, but in the face of the general election it could be very damaging if such a group of people don’t vote for him as a sign of disagreement.“, he comments The trade political analyst, professor at UCLA and commentator for CNN en Español Octavio Pescador.
In recent weeks, the White House has tried to control the progress of this dissident campaign against Biden, sending a group of senior officials to Michigan to meet with different leaders of the Arab community.
“We feel better informed, more educated and certainly more understanding of the concerns that exist in the Arab community and in the Arab-American community (…) And, once again, we are taking that into account and we are doing so, and we are acting accordingly“said Director of National Security Communications John Kirby.
Tuesday’s results, however, reflect that the effect was not what Washington expected.
“The state has a large Muslim community, remember Michigan has a Palestinian representative in Congress. But it’s not just them, but also young people and some liberals who don’t look favorably on what’s happening in the Middle East, considering that the United States is taking a long time to prevent something, when it could very well do so with greater authority. .”, says Pescador.
On the other hand, Biden even avoided naming dissatisfied voters after the results in Michigan were known. For the analyst, this would respond to a basic political communication strategy.
“It’s the same thing that happens with the Marine who blew himself up in front of the Israeli embassy in Washington in protest against the war. When there is something that harms you in terms of public image, the last thing you want is to echo it. If there were people who were listening to the news or reading something related and didn’t know about the dissatisfied group, it would have caught their attention for the president to mention it, it would have led them to look further into the matter. It’s not censoring or hiding, simply saying what’s convenient for you.”, says Pescador.
The Michigan primaries could be an interesting thermometer for the Democratic leader to assess the impact that these votes could have on the general elections, but they could also end up influencing the decisions that Washington will take on the Middle East in the coming months.
“I would say it has already had an influence, both on this issue and on immigration. This is why Biden is visiting the border now, because many voices of immigrant leaders are seeing that with these friends they don’t need enemies”, says the analyst.
For Pescador, two upcoming events will be decisive in determining whether this dissenting vote will grow or disappear. “It will largely depend on the ceasefire before Ramadan, which is apparently already being negotiated, and whether the Israeli army’s incursion into the southern Gaza Strip will have the expected devastating consequences. If both happen, the anti-Biden ferment that has begun to brew in certain Democratic groups will be dampened. The fact that we are at the end of February and the election is only in November plays in Biden’s favor, so there is a considerable temporal distance“, Explain.
Meanwhile, in the Republican tent, Trump won a new and comfortable victory by winning 68.2% of the vote, compared to 26.6% for former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley.
What is surprising, however, is that Haley decided to continue with her campaign despite losing in every seat, including her home state. The former governor guaranteed that she will not give up on the dispute, at least until Super Tuesday, March 5th.
The hope of a possible return against the controversial former president seems to be fading, a sign of this is that at the beginning of the week the super conservative PAC Americans For Prosperity Action, supported by the billionaire Koch family, decided to withdraw its support.
But then why does Haley insist on staying in the race? For the Fisherman there are three main reasons.
“The first is that it has medium and long-term aspirations. With the exception of Trump, Ron DeSantis has already shown that he is not a leader who can keep the Republican Party together and has become discouraged. Trump is not eternal and neither is Biden. Even if Trump is reelected, for a young woman like Haley, four years is nothing and she would enter this race with a national structure and visibility already forged.“, says the analyst, remembering that the governor of Florida abandoned the race just a week after it started.
“Secondly, there are between 20% and up to 40% of people, depending on the state, who support Haley and disagree with Trump. By voting for her, they are sending a message against Trump”Adds Pescador.
“Third, it could be a matter of luck or patience. “A lot of things could happen, like Trump being sent to prison,” says the expert. It is worth remembering that the former governor faces numerous legal problems, including four criminal trials for alleged crimes such as the attempt to invalidate the elections, bribery, the retention of confidential documents or his possible relationship with the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
“If a conviction against the former president is imminent, many of those who tolerate him simply because he is a Republican could decide not to vote for a convict and that support could be transferred to Haley”, concludes Pescador.
Source: Elcomercio
I am Jack Morton and I work in 24 News Recorder. I mostly cover world news and I have also authored 24 news recorder. I find this work highly interesting and it allows me to keep up with current events happening around the world.
