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Super Tuesday, key day of the primaries that will define the candidacies of Biden and Trump

He Super Tuesday It is the most anticipated day for presidential candidates in U.S in the primary phase. It has become a custom since the 1980s and since then has served to define the candidates with the greatest chances of reaching the White House.

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And this Super Tuesday on March 5 – in which 15 states and American Samoa will vote – will practically dictate what we all already know: that Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate and Joe Biden the Democrat. The presidents’ revenge is almost accomplished, although there are still months to go before official designations, in addition to several primaries in other states.

The date is fundamental, as due to the high number of states that vote, a significant number of delegates are distributed, who represent the candidates. Taking into account that these are indirect elections, to win the Republican primaries the candidate needs 1,215 delegates, while on the Democratic side 1,969 delegates are needed.

Although this time around these elections are quite predictable – unlike previous campaigns where the primaries were ultra-competitive – this year’s elections are laying the groundwork for what could happen in November’s general election. And this means the real support that both Trump and Biden can have on this crucial day.

(The trade)

“When you have a president running for re-election, as is the case with the Democratic Party, there are no more competitive primaries. In addition to Biden, there are two candidates for the nomination who are harmless. It’s a protocol and something more symbolic,” political scientist María Puerta Riera, professor of American Government at Valencia College, in Orlando, told El Comercio.

“In the case of the Republican Party, they have a similar scenario because it is very clear that former President Trump will be the nominee. Therefore, this Super Tuesday will consolidate the candidacies of Trump and Biden,” he adds.

Both arrive at Super Tuesday with well-defined numbers. Although the president won 206 delegates and his competitors none, the Republican had 110 compared to the 20 that Nikky Haley, Trump’s only rival in these primaries, has.

Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and former U.S. ambassador to the UN, has set Super Tuesday as her goal to stay in the race and see how many more delegates she can get, even though the task seems daunting. She presented herself as an alternative to Trump to “save the country” and sought to capture the moderate vote of Republicans who still do not accept the New Yorker’s leadership, but apparently that would not be enough.

“The main reason why Haley remains in the race is to demonstrate to the Republican Party that, although the majority of its members choose Trump, a significant part has started to reject his way of doing politics”, explains Dr. Nevena to El Comercio. Trajkov, chairman of the Department of Political Science at Jacksonville University, Florida. “She will remain until Super Tuesday to demonstrate that she can obtain 40% of the Republican vote and a considerable part of the independent votes, making her a legitimate plan B if they decide to replace Trump at the ballot box,” she points out.

Despite the losses, Nikki Haley remains in the race.  (Photo: EFE)

Despite the losses, Nikki Haley remains in the race. (Photo: EFE)

According to the BBC, some Republican strategists and spokespeople from her campaign command point out that Haley also points to the next presidential elections of 2028, when Trump’s name will definitely be out of contention, and these primaries would serve as an immense platform for her. . .exhibition (and fundraising).

“Although it is not hurting Trump’s campaign, it is showing a vulnerability on the Republican side that Biden does not have, which is that the president is obtaining percentages in states above those that Trump is obtaining”, highlights Riera. Gate. And not only that, he is also raising a lot of money, while the donations that Trump is receiving are not only going to the campaign, but also to cover his legal expenses in the four criminal cases he has pending.

On the Democratic side, things are not easy for the president either, especially after what happened with the Michigan primaries. Although his rivals were nothing to worry about and Biden received 81% of the vote, a protest campaign tarnished his numbers. And the “uncommitted” option (which would be the equivalent of a blank vote in Peru) reached a surprising 13.3%, thanks to the call from progressive activists and the state’s Arab community to reject the support that the US government is giving to Israel in the Gaza Strip.

US President Joe Biden hopes to win a second term.  (Photo: EFE)

US President Joe Biden hopes to win a second term. (Photo: EFE)

The issue is not minor, as it involved 100,000 uncommitted votes in Michigan, known for being a swing state, that is, it goes from Republican to Democrat in each election, and it is in these states that the president is finally defined. In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in Michigan by just 2.8%.

However, Trajkov stresses that these numbers need to be put into perspective. “Michigan is a state where primaries are open, meaning a registered voter can vote in the Republican or Democratic primaries. “It’s important to remember that the majority of Arabs in Michigan are registered Republicans and small business owners,” he notes.

Looking at Super Tuesday, what is clear is that both parties already have their candidates defined, regardless of the trials or health problems they both have. But until November the race will be long.

Source: Elcomercio

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