Leaked military-to-military dialogue on Ukraine increases tension between Russia and Germany

A new episode of tension is being written around the extensive war between Russia and Ukraine, after Moscow disclosed a secret conversation in which German officers They discuss the training of Ukrainian soldiers, possible attacks on targets in the annexed regions Crimean Peninsula and the potential delivery of the Taurus cruise missiles that Kiev has been eyeing for months.

TO LOOK: Germany accuses Putin of trying to destabilize the country with leaked wiretaps

The Kremlin described these secret talks as a clear example of “the direct involvement of the countries of the so-called collective West in the conflict surrounding Ukraine”according to government spokesman Dmitri Peskov.

Consequently, on Monday the 4th, the German ambassador in Moscow, Alexander Lambsdorff, was summoned to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to explain the case.

From Germany, however, it was confirmed that the conversation was conducted by senior military commanders of the Air Force, but Putin’s government was accused of using this episode to “destabilize” For the country.

“It’s simply about using this recording to destabilize“and harm”the unity of the country“, said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

A day earlier, the head of the German government, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, had promised an investigation.”exhausting” about the case.

At the press conference on Monday, the 4th, Peskov also referred to this, proposing two scenarios: that it is a state policy or that the German Army acts on its own.

“It remains to be seen whether the German Army will do so on its own initiative. So the question is how controllable is the German Army and to what extent does Mr. Scholz control all this, or is this part of German state policy?”, commented the spokesperson.

The conversations leaked by Moscow would refer to a possible attack on the Kerch bridge, which connects the Crimean peninsula to Russia.

This new peak of tension between Russia and a Western country in the context of the war with Ukraine comes just days after controversy arose due to statements in which French President Emmanuel Macron left open the possibility of sending NATO troops to the ground, in support of Kiev.

Although both the French government and the main members of the military alliance quickly ruled out this option, which would represent direct participation in the conflict, Russia did not hesitate to warn that a decision of this type could trigger a major conflict, without ruling out a nuclear scenario.

Since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has sought to maintain the message that this “special military operation” is the way to keep its territory safe from the Western threat.

For novelist, historian and international policy analyst Rodrigo Murillo, this leak would follow the same pattern.

“I think that Russia is raising the issue at this time to reinforce its thesis, in addition to Macron’s statements, that not only France would think about escalating the conflict, but also Germany. In other words, the European Union takes an aggressive stance and Russia, according to this way of seeing things, is a victim. All of this contributes to support Putin’s explanation of the conflict“, comments Murillo to The trade.

However, the expert also does not rule out that both Macron’s message and the intercepted German military conversation are part of a much broader Western plan that would seek to change the tone of the conversation with Moscow.

“What emerges between the lines is a European position of strategic ambiguity. Today the European military complex has decided that confidence in the North American ally is no longer what it was before, with the prospects of the elections it is likely that we will have a United States that will not enter the umbrella of European defense to limit Putin’s expansionism but on the contrary, if Donald Trump is elected, they will come in to end the conflict as quickly as possible. Even if it means giving in to some of Putin’s demands. What this concept of strategic ambiguity intends is for the Russians to begin to consider that the Europeans can fight directly without US support.”, says the expert.

Macron’s statements led Putin to threaten a possible nuclear conflict if the West decides to intervene directly in the war between Ukraine and Russia.

Regarding the particular case of the German Army, and the thesis presented by Peskov of a possible parallel command between the ranks, Murillo explains that this would respond to a particularity that German forces have had since the Second World War.

“Germany is the only European country whose armed forces share the epic on both sides of the Second World War. It is estimated that German forces are the most penetrated in the West by the Russians. Today, in the German Armed Forces there are two sides: the traditional one with a Prussian past and an obscure part of the Third Reich, but there is also one more inclined towards the Red Army and the epic liberation of Germany by the Soviets. Unity.“, Explain.

“I have no doubt that within the German armed forces there is a strong group that seeks to recover this German military tradition and, aware of Russian weakness, these soldiers could have a revanchist spirit. This could be very dangerous for Europe’s stability. Scholz refers to having this small extremist group that still exists under control“Adds Murillo in reference to the German Chancellor’s concern to thoroughly investigate the case.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised on Saturday to thoroughly investigate the military conversation intercepted by Moscow. (FILIP CANTOR/)

On Monday the 4th, Berlin quickly indicated that the leak would be a reflection of the German government’s intentions to start a war against Russia. For Murillo, this episode would not be serious enough to transcend diplomacy; However, there would be other factors that could contribute to the expansion of the war at some point.

“I don’t think there are any consequences other than rhetoric. Putin’s reaction to the European strategy of ambiguity is to threaten to worsen the conflict even further. However, hatred or resentment against Russia is widespread in all countries occupied in the Cold War, such as the Baltic countries, Poland or Hungary. In all these societies there is a great revanchist spirit against Russia. And this is very dangerous, because if this speech is proven, the chances of a war with Russia are much greater.”, says Murillo.

The expert is also concerned about the impact that the internal problems that European nations have faced in recent years could have, as for many governments the solution to these social discussions could be a demonstration of regional unity in the face of a common enemy.

“Even if European leaders rule out this new explosion and Chancellor Scholz sanctions someone responsible, this does not eliminate the fact that strategic ambiguity is already being applied in Europe. The interpretation that Putin only understands a position of strength gained and the Europeans began to alter his speech so that he thinks twice before continuing. I worry that European states are so plagued by internal problems that they cannot resolve, and to avoid a discussion on the issue, many governments seem to point to a kind of European nationalism to hide what they do not know how to resolve. The West, on a rhetorical level, will not back down, but will continue to apply the language of strategic ambiguity. I do not exclude sending soldiers to Ukraine, but I doubt that Russia will respond militarily to this because it does not have the capacity to do so.”, he reflects.

Source: Elcomercio