Iran’s attack on Israel: why Arab countries are calling for “restraint”

A voice calling to “save the region (…) from the dangers of war.” Another who claims to be “in direct contact with all parties to the conflict to try to contain the situation.” This reaction to the Iranian attack on Israel this weekend is not coming from major international mediators or Tel Aviv’s historical allies. The first was signed by the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; the second is from its Egyptian counterpart.

This Sunday, the major Arab states issued a unison call for moderation. At first glance, this position seems far from one of solidarity with the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian population. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend. We have long known that the Gulf monarchies, Jordan and Egypt are allies of Israel in the fight against Iran,” former diplomat Gerard Araud, ambassador to Tel Aviv in the 2000s, commented to X (ex-Twitter).

Jordan, Israel’s neighbor, intercepted Iranian drones heading towards Jerusalem overnight. The country closed its airspace in anticipation of an attack, like Iraq and Lebanon. The Hashemite monarchy accuses Tehran of attempts at destabilization that it has suffered for months. Pro-Iranian militias are seeking, in particular, to open a front on the border with Israel.

Pro-Palestinian demonstrators arrested

“In essence, Jordan does not value the position of the messianic settlers in the West Bank at all. Netanyahu is not an ally. But the most harmful thing in his eyes is Iran and all its proxies(agent),” analyzes Antoine Basbous, director of the Arab Observatory and partner at Forward Global. There is also no doubt that anti-Israel anger will escalate into some kind of popular uprising. The shadow of a new Arab Spring is looming. Authorities have arrested about 1,500 people in recent months for protesting outside the Israeli embassy in Amman, according to Amnesty International.

Following the October 7 massacre by Hamas Islamists, “Saudi Arabia has shown a particular interest in pacifying its relations with its neighbors and ending the regional war of attrition,” continues Antoine Basbou. As for Egypt, which is experiencing economic difficulties, it will have no choice but to hope for a speedy return to calm. “Moreover, Israel could oust the Palestinians, pushing them to their land, to Sinai,” the political scientist emphasizes. This Sunday, the Egyptian government warned of “the risk of a regional expansion of the conflict.”