The dilemma faced by Jordan, the only Arab country that helped Israel repel Iran’s attack

A simple look at the map of the Middle East is enough to understand the uncomfortable position of Jordan.

This small Arab country is located on the route between Israel and Iran, two powers that hate each other and are immersed in an escalation that threatens to provoke an open war in that region of the world.

LOOK: Why Iran attacked Israel and 6 more questions about the rivalry between the two countries

The fight between the two placed Amman in a diabolical dilemma that made clear the complex political and strategic balances in which a country that does not usually attract the attention of the world’s media was managed for decades.

It did so last Saturday, when a hail of drones and missiles launched by Iran and its related militias headed towards Israel to make it pay for the attack that destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus and cost the lives of several of its generals.

Jordanian air forces launched to intercept the projectiles, in a decisive action to neutralize Tehran’s coup against Israel. It was the only Arab country to do so.

All observers expected such a reaction from American and British forces in the region, but the Jordanian response surprised many, including in Israel.

Despite being one of the few Arab countries that maintains formal relations with Israel, the Hashemite kingdom had been one of the strongest in condemning the Israeli military intervention in Gaza and these relationships are going through one of the worst times in recent years.

Foreign Minister Haysan Afami accused Israel of committing “war crimes” in the strip and announced his country’s support for the genocide case that South Africa is pursuing at the International Court of Justice against Israel.

In November, Jordan withdrew its ambassador to Israel in protest against the actions of Israeli troops in Gaza.

And the Government reached a bilateral agreement on water and solar energy.

It is estimated that about half of the Jordanian population are Palestinian refugees or descendants who remember the four wars Jordan has faced with Israel since 1948.

Why then did your forces rush in to neutralize the Iranian attack on Israel?

Jordan, a dependent country in a diabolical environment

With an area of ​​just over 89 thousand square kilometers and a population that barely exceeds eleven million inhabitants, Jordan is located on a desert plateau in the Middle East, one of the historically most conflictual areas on the planet.

With few natural resources at its disposal, Jordan relies heavily on international cooperation. It receives large contributions from the International Monetary Fund, the United States, the European Union and the wealthy Gulf monarchies.

For its security in an environment of conflicting parties, it also depends on external help.

Like his predecessors, King Abdullah cultivated friendship with the United States. (LUDOVIC MARIN/GETTY).

King Abdullah, who effectively directs the country’s politics, cultivated the friendship of Washington and its international partners, as did his predecessors in the Hashemite dynasty.

Ghaith Al-Omari, from the Washington Institute, an analysis center specializing in the Middle East, told BBC Mundo that “the decision to act against the Iranian attack must have weighed on the desire to present itself to the United States as the most trustworthy Arab country.” partner.” .

“Despite all the rhetoric, Jordan sees Israel as the main guarantor of its security against external actors together with the United States,” adds the expert.

“Israel is vital to Jordan’s security and vice versa. It is something assumed in the military doctrine of both countries and that is why they have been cooperating in defense for years”, he noted.

This cooperation has consisted, according to the expert, in the sharing of intelligence information and the help provided by the Israeli Army to Jordan to attack targets in neighboring Syria that it could not have reached by its own means.

Map of the Middle East, highlighting Jordan, Israel and Iran.

How have relations between Jordan and Israel been?

Jordan was one of the Arab countries that fought several wars against Israel after the establishment of that State in the territories of the former British Mandate of Palestine in 1948.

The successive conflicts and the Israeli occupation caused the arrival of a large number of Palestinian refugees in Jordan, which explains even today that, as Al-Omari says, “the Palestinian problem is seen as a question of internal and not international politics” and There is a widespread rejection of Israel in Jordanian society.

But Following the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993 between the Israeli government and the Palestine Liberation Organization to end the conflict between the two, Amman was encouraged to sign its own peace treaty with Israel.thus giving character to relationships that had been occurring unofficially for a long time.

Jordan thus became the second Arab country to establish relations with Israel and since then has been navigating the contradiction caused by the weight that the Palestinian cause continues to have in its public opinion and by the need for Israeli and American military cooperation to guarantee its defense. in an environment as problematic as the Middle East.

The latest example of this difficult balance emerged in the response to Saturday’s Iranian attack.

The Jordanian government presented the interception of Iranian missiles and drones as an essential airspace defense to prevent harm to the Jordanian population, and was careful to express any show of solidarity or sympathy toward Israel.

Leaders in Amman appear to be aware of the background and demonstrations in front of the Israeli embassy that have been demanding an end to the intervention in Gaza for months.

But in reality, according to Al-Omari, “intercepting the Iranian missiles was an easy decision to make.”

Why?

Because if there is a country more unpopular than Israel in Jordan, it is Iran.

A large part of Jordan’s population is made up of Palestinian refugees or their descendants. (DOMINIKA ZARZYCKA/GETTY).

What are relations like between Jordan and Iran?

Al-Omari says that “the vision we have of Will in Jordan It’s currently very negative.”

“The crimes and abuses committed in the Syrian war by groups supported by Tehran are remembered and are also believed to be trying to destabilize Jordan as part of their regional strategy against Israel and the United States.”

Tehran has sponsored similar armed organizations in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq for years, in what it calls an “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States. Lebanese Hezbollah is the most prominent of them, but it is a series of irregular groups that have Israel as their main enemy.

The main concern of Jordanian authorities is that Iran will try to replicate this model in Jordan as well.

This is why recent statements by Abu Ali al Askari, spokesman for Iraq’s pro-Iran militia Kataeb Hezbollah, have caused particular alarm, assuring that his group is in a position to supply weapons, including missiles and anti-tank projectiles. , for 12,000 fighters in Jordan. who could appear in defense of the “Palestinian brothers”.

Top Iranian leaders have touted themselves in the past for their influence in Beirut, Damascus and Baghdad, the capitals of Arab states close to Israel, and the Jordanian government is concerned that Tehran wants to add Amman to that list.

An open confrontation between Iran and Israel could catch Jordan in the crossfire. (MORTEZA NIKOBAUZL/GETTY).

Al-Omari points out that “in recent years, weapons and drug smuggling from Iran has increased; Now it has reached a large volume and this raises concerns.”

And then there is a religious factor.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has Shiism as its official religion and supports and funds Shiite religious organizations in other countries. His attempts to do so in Jordan also generated widespread rejection in a country where the vast majority are Sunnis, the other main branch of Islam.

What would Jordan do if Israel responded to Iran

Although it stopped the first volley against it, Israel cannot take Jordan’s unconditional support in the fight with Iran for granted.

In several Arab countries, voices were raised against King Abdullah on social media, accusing him of collaborating with the “enemy”. One of the most circulated memes featured him in a montage dressed in an Israeli Army uniform.

Jordan’s difficult balancing act as one of the few Arab countries to recognize Israel has become even more difficult under the government of Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Jordanian crown manages, through a religious foundation, the Esplanade of the Mosques, a space where the holy places for Muslims are concentrated in the disputed Jerusalem, and the publication in various media of alleged conversations between Netanyahu and Prince Mohamed Bin Salmán, of Arabia Saudi Arabia, including him in control of the holy site caused suspicion in Amman.

Previously, in 2017, Netanyahu had received as a hero in Israel a security guard at the Israeli embassy in Amman who killed two Jordanians, according to the Israeli version, after being attacked by one of them, which outraged the Jordanian government.

More recently, the Jordanian government reached a bilateral agreement on the use of water and solar energy.

But the most serious tensions appear to be yet to come.

If, as one of its top military commanders announced, Israel responds to the Iranian attack over the weekend, and does so by launching projectiles that cross Jordanian airspace, your government may find itself in an even more difficult position than that caused by the Iranian attack.

“That would create serious political problems for the government, because it cannot allow people to see that it prevented Iran’s attack, but allows Israel’s.”

Jordan’s dilemma could worsen as the confrontation between Israel and Iran intensifies.

Source: Elcomercio