Confusion and strategy: what does it mean for Iran to raise the threat of its secret nuclear program again?

Although tension between Iran and Israel remains at its highest and the possibility of a major conflict remains latent in the Middle East, the Islamic Republic has once again warned the region and the world about the threat posed by its nuclear program and doctrine.

TO LOOK: Israel attacks Iran LIVE: strong explosions are recorded near the city of Isfahan

Clashes between the two countries – biggest enemies for more than four decades – reached a new level after Iran launched an attack with missiles and drones against Israel last Saturday, in retaliation for the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria), in April 1st. in which seven members of the Revolutionary Guard died.

Israel promised to respond to the attack, something that occurred in the early hours of Friday, the 19th, a senior US official confirmed to ABC News. Iran’s state television reported “strong explosions” heard near the city of Isfahan, in the center of the country, and the Mehr news agency reported the suspension of flights over Tehran and other cities for a few hours. Furthermore, the official IRNA news agency reported that authorities activated their air defense systems in several cities across the country.

Iranian students pray in front of the Isfahan uranium conversion facility during a demonstration in support of Iran’s nuclear program and against Israel’s military threats on November 15, 2011. (AFP PHOTO/STR). (-/)

Even before the Israeli response, all alarms went off on Thursday the 18th, when Will He stated that he could review his nuclear doctrine and policy if the Hebrew country threatened to attack its atomic centers.

Until now, Iranian nuclear doctrine dictated the exclusively civilian use of nuclear energy. But the Islamic Republic warned that this could change.

Ahmad Haghtalab, commander of the Revolutionary Guard responsible for safeguarding Iranian atomic facilities, warned that Tehran will attack Israeli nuclear facilities in retaliation for a possible similar attack by Israel, the Mehr agency reported.

Tehran closed its nuclear facilities last Sunday “for security reasons” in the face of possible Israeli retaliation following the Iranian attack over the weekend, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported at the time.

International analyst Francesco Tucci considers that Will will continue to use the nuclear threat more and more frequently now that tensions are at their highest with Israel, which is a nuclear country.

A student watches Iran’s homemade centrifuges at a display of the country’s nuclear achievements, Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2023. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

“The Iranian regime of the ayatollahs wants nuclear weapons because if it manages to develop these weapons it will have maximum deterrence, as it will be able to threaten both Israel and other nuclear powers. This is not the case for the United States because the missiles that Iran wants to develop will not reach there, but they could threaten Europe. Now, it is a fact that nuclear deterrence would be mainly directed at Israel,” he told El Comercio.

The Iranian atomic program has worried the West for many years, which has often criticized its opacity. Although a nuclear agreement (JCPOA) was signed in 2015 with six major powers in order to significantly limit their activities, the agreement collapsed when the United States, under the presidency of Donald Trump, withdrew from the pact.

Since then, analysts have highlighted that Iran’s nuclear program has made great progress. However, the Persian nation still does not possess nuclear weapons. According to the most recent IAEA report, published in February in Vienna, Iran produces highly enriched uranium up to 60%, a material that has almost no civilian use, but has military uses.

This file photo taken on November 10, 2019 shows an Iranian flag at the Bushehr nuclear power plant. (ATTA KENARE/AFP).

Although the agreement is largely no longer implemented, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues its inspections and verifications of Iran’s nuclear program.

“From what we know so far, it is a threat that has not yet developed. In other words, Iran is developing a nuclear capability, but it does not yet possess it, nor does it possess nuclear weapons. Currently, Israel has nuclear weapons. Not Iran, as far as we know based on available data,” says Tucci.

The Efe agency points out that to produce a nuclear bomb, uranium enriched above 90% is necessary, something that Iranian technicians seem to have already mastered, having perfected enrichment up to 60%.

Tucci emphasizes that the West must assume its responsibility in the growing Iranian nuclear threat because the agreement that collapsed was better than having nothing: “The agreement was not the best, but it allowed international organizations to control the development of Iranian nuclear plants. Now we don’t have direct information from civil authorities or all the controls that existed before, so we don’t know how far the Iranian program is progressing.”

The escalation drew condemnation from the international community. The United States and the United Kingdom announced this Thursday, the 18th, a series of coordinated sanctions against Iran with which they seek to “impose consequences” on the country.

The US sanctions targeted 16 individuals and two entities that Washington says are linked to the production of unmanned aerial vehicles.

A photo provided by the Iranian military media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally manufactured drones during a military exercise at an undisclosed location in Iran. (AFP). (-/)

“Less than a week ago, Iran launched one of the largest missile and drone attacks the world has ever seen against Israel,” said US President Joe Biden.

Iran is the second country in the world that has received the most sanctions from the United States and European countries, according to Efe.

However, Tucci highlights that the impact of these types of measures has not changed significantly. “There are many academic studies that show how sanctions don’t help much. We see with the sanctions against Russia that it received a very strong package of sanctions, the most severe seen after the Second World War. But the Russian economy grew,” he highlights.

He believes that for sanctions to work, the entire international community should apply them, but this is not the case. “I do not see sanctions as an effective tool to induce different behaviors on the part of government actors. It doesn’t work, it may be a pressure tool, but it cannot be the only one. Furthermore, Iran has very good relationships with China and Russia, so it has some powerful allies. “Iran even sells drones to Russia”, he concludes.

Source: Elcomercio