“Netanyahu knows that Hamas’ survival would mean his defeat”: analysis by Jeremy Bowen, BBC international editor

After months of intense conversations between Israel It is Hamas and the group of mediating countries, the time has come to make difficult decisions.

Hamas accepted a proposed ceasefire agreement that is “far from satisfying Israel’s demands”, according to Benjamin Netanyahu. Even so, the Prime Minister considered it necessary to send a delegation to study it.

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Israel accepted a ceasefire proposal at the end of April. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the offer was “exceptionally generous”.

Bridging the differences between Israel’s version and the one accepted by Haman is the great challenge for negotiators in Cairo. Diplomatic sources in Qatar, which is part of mediation efforts with Egypt and the United States, assured me that it is “generally speaking, the same proposal as Israel. “Only minor changes were made to terminology and details.”

Israel may interpret, however, that the differences are not small. One of the main points of contention has been that Hamas wants the ceasefire to be permanent, not temporary, and to be followed by an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

If the American delegation, led by CIA chief William Burns, believes the differences between the two can be overcome, Netanyahu can assume there will be pressure from Washington to accept it.

Israeli forces began an incursion into Gaza. (REUTERS).

“There are two ways to look at Hamas’ tactics”

Until Monday afternoon, Israel’s assumption was that Hamas would reject a proposed ceasefire. Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, like most foreign analysts, were surprised when the Palestinian Islamic organization announced its decision.

There are two ways to analyze Hamas’ tactics. can be interpreted like a desperate measure by an organization very depleted and almost destroyed by Israel’s long offensive.

Or how an intelligent political movement which put pressure on Netanyahu. This explanation is more credible since it upset Israel’s plans and assumptions.

We know that Israel calculated the next phase of the war on the assumption that Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, who has been in hiding since October 7, would never accept a ceasefire.

Israel took advantage of the absence of a Hamas ceasefire proposal to support its decision to launch a military operation in Rafah. And the United States has made it very clear that it is against any ground operations in that city that could threaten the lives of more Palestinian civilians.

Israel has been bombing Rafah, in southern Gaza, since Monday, in what it calls a “limited range” operation. (Getty Images).

As Israel warned some 100,000 Palestinians to leave their homes on Monday morning, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told his American counterpart that There was no alternative to an attack for Rafa.

This, he argued, was because Hamas rejected all proposals for a temporary ceasefire and the release of hostages. A few hours later, Hamas made its announcement, calling Israel’s bluff.

Netanyahu, “under strong pressure”

Netanyahu is in trouble politically. His governing style during more than 16 years as leader of Israel was characterized by postpone difficult decisions.

However, you are now under intense pressure on all fronts and although stalling for time can be very tempting, it is time to make decisions.

The most intense pressure comes two ultranationalist Jewish extremists from his cabinet: the Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, and the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir.

Netanyahu needs your votes to keep his coalition in power. They want Israel to occupy Rafah and have threatened to overthrow the government if it does not do so. They consider a ceasefire to be equivalent to surrender.

At the same time, families and supporters of the Israeli hostages demonstrated in the streets, blocking some of the country’s main roads to demand that Israel accept an agreement that allows them to return home.

The families of the hostages have support in the war cabinet of Benny Gantz and Gabi Eisenkot, two opposition leaders who joined this body after the October 7 attacks. They could abandon the government if, in the absence of a ceasefire, the hostages continued to be kidnapped.

The families of those kidnapped demand that Netanyahu accept the proposed ceasefire agreement. (GET IMAGES).

And the Americans want a deal too. President Biden’s support for Israel, despite the high number of Palestinian civilian deaths, is costing him political support in the United States.

If Biden decides there is an acceptable version of a ceasefire, will pressure Netanyahu to accept it.

The Israeli leader would have to choose between the survival of his government and the vital support that the American president has given him in recent months.

The general opinion in Israel is that Netanyahu wants to prolong the war postpone the moment of accountability for the errors that, on October 7, allowed Hamas to kill around 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and take 240 hostages to Gaza.

A ceasefire would also mean that Benjamin Netanyahu has not achieved “complete victory” over Hamas, one of his two main war goals. The other is the release of the hostages, something that was also not achieved.

This war shows, once again, how difficult it is for powerful countries like Israel to defeat much weaker organizations like Hamas.

For Hamas, survival means victory; and Benjamin Netanyahu knows that, for him, it would be a defeat.

Source: Elcomercio