Chile Elections 2021: How did social turbulence creep into the campaign one month after the presidential elections?

This week’s riots on the second anniversary of the biggest social uprising in Chile they disrupted the electoral campaign a month after the first round of the presidential elections.

Seven candidates seek to replace the conservative Sebastian Piñera, in an open stage.

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The polls do not give any candidate the electoral capital to obtain a clear victory on November 21, while they place the undecided in a range between 16% and 50%.

The Polso Ciudadano poll, released this week, places at the forefront of the list Gabriel Boric, 35, a deputy from the Frente Amplio coalition, 21% of the intentions, followed by the far-right lawyer Jose Antonio Kast (55), from the Republican Party, with 16.3%.

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Then the only woman in the race, the Christian Democrat, appears with 13.1% Yasna Provoste (51), while the possibilities of the right-wing vanish Sebastian Sichel (44), with just 7.5% of accessions, who until two weeks ago was the strongest part of the government coalition.

If no candidate achieves an absolute majority (50% + 1) of the votes, Any of these four names can go to the second round on December 19.

And despite the fact that the polls show sounded mistakes since 2019, they all coincide in predicting a final definition with Boric.

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“The second round is practically a fact. The uncertainty is in who will go to that second round “, Mauricio Morales, a political analyst at the University of Talca, told AFP.

“It seems clear to me that Boric It will go to the second round, but I do not rule out that it enters Provoked and closet there is some competitiveness. It will be necessary to see what happens in the next debates and with 16% undecided ”, Javier Couso, an academic at the Diego Portales University (UDP), asserted.

The surprising rebound in the last days of closet, a 55-year-old former deputy who has claimed the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990), coincided with the fall in the polls of Sichel, former president of the State Bank.

From left to right, the presidential candidate Gabriel Boric, from the I Approve Dignity party; Sebastian Sichel, from the Chile Podemos party; José Antonio Kast, of the Republican Party; and Yasna Provoste, from the Constituent Unit party. (CLAUDIO REYES / AFP).

The candidate of Pinera He is the target of criticism after he admitted to having withdrawn 10% of his pension fund in the context of the crisis due to the covid-19 pandemic, despite the fact that he was always against the authorization of these withdrawals, something that he considered “ a terrible public policy ”.

Fear vs Hope

Since September 24, when northern Chile was the scene of xenophobic attacks against Venezuelan migrants, some polls began to show an increase in support for closet.

His political option has also been favored, according to analysts, by the riots that occurred throughout the country on Monday in the framework of the mostly peaceful demonstrations to commemorate the second anniversary of the social outbreak, which left two dead, 56 injured and 450 detained.

“Violence will always favor the candidacy that offers order and restitution of the rule of law. In this case, that of José Antonio Kast ”, Mauricio Morales affirmed.

“Sometimes fear mobilizes more than hope. For this reason, it is very important to take into account the context in which the elections are taking place, especially in terms of acts of violence ”, added.

Influence on voters

On behalf of the government, the undersecretary of the Interior, Juan Francisco Galli, attributed the violent excesses of Monday to Boric and Provoste, for supporting and proposing pardons to protesters who are imprisoned and who “looted, destroyed everything and threw Molotov cocktails” during the revolt of two years ago.

Boric He responded that the government “tries to take political advantage of acts of violence instead of fulfilling its role” of maintaining order in the country, while Provoste accused Galli of inventing “a bad excuse to save his presidential candidates.”

“Monday’s protests can sway voters. Most likely next week’s polls will indicate if this is consolidating as a trend“Said Raúl Elgueta, doctor in political science and academic from the University of Santiago.

In social networks, calls have already been made to return to the streets next Monday, October 25, when two years of the largest protest in the last 30 years of democracy that was registered during the social outbreak are commemorated.

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