Chile Elections 2021: What impact will the quarantine of the candidates fighting for the presidency have?

A little over two weeks after the first round of the presidential election, Chile is experiencing an unusual moment in the campaign. This Thursday 4, five of the seven applicants to succeed Sebastián Piñera have entered quarantine after one of the applicants tested positive for COVID-19 on the eve.

Gabriel Boric, candidate of the left under the banner of the Pact I Approve Dignity, tested positive for PCR on Wednesday 3. At the beginning of the week, the 35-year-old deputy had participated in two debates with four other candidates for the Chilean presidency.

Consequently, Jose Antonio Kast, Yasna Provoste, Sebastian Sichel and Marco Henríquez Ominami they have also had to initiate preventive quarantines.

Boric will have to remain isolated for at least 15 days, while the other four contenders hope to obtain a negative result before Monday to be able to restart their activities, thanks to the fact that they have the complete guideline of vaccination against him COVID-19.

If they return a positive result during the weekend, the candidates will have to serve 10 more days of isolation. It should be noted that the first electoral round is scheduled for November 21.

The news also comes on the same day that the most recent Criteria Poll on voting intention was published, corresponding to the month of October.

The favorites stand out

The poll positions the leftist Boric and the ultra-conservative closet, of Approve Dignity and the Republican Party, respectively, tied for first place with 25% voting intention.

However, the growth of the far-right candidate stands out, obtaining 8 points more than in September and 17 points more than in August. While supporting Boric seems to have stabilized in the same period.

The pair is followed by Provoked (center-left, New Social Pact) with 10%, Sichel (ruling-right, Chile Vamos) with 8%, Franco Parisi that obtains 7% and Enríquez-Ominami with 4%.

Of this second group, the abrupt fall of Sichel, who obtained 8 points less than in the survey carried out in September.

“The growth of closet it is due to two things. First thing, the fall of Sichel, with which the votes of the right have gone towards Kast. The second, appears as a candidate who defends the things he believes in, speaks simply and directly. People end up favoring those things. In addition, it has a very anti-crime discourse that, given the levels of violence that we have seen in Chile, ends up being very attractive to many middle class people who otherwise would not have voted for him”, explains the Trade Chilean political scientist Patricio Navia.

At the moment, the polls indicate that there will not be an absolute winner in the first round, which will force two candidates (most likely Boric and closet) contest the presidency in a ballot on Sunday, December 19.

“I think it’s pretty definite that Boric and closet they are going to pass. The Second round, in some way, it has been ahead of the first. Now many people are guided by the useful vote and there the third and fourth place have remained stagnant because those votes are directed to the first two”, Comments to this newspaper Axel Callís, Chilean sociologist, electoral expert and director of TuInfluyes.com.

Navia considers, for her part, that the second round will be very competitive and open for any of the two options that manage to reach it.

“Ironically, this election looks more and more like the first round in Peru because between the two candidates who go to Second round between them will add the smallest vote in the history of Chile. It is probably not 30% as in Peru, but just over 50%, but there will still be 40% of voters who voted for different candidates in the first round. Those who pass will find a fairly open second round”, He assures.

The quarantine effect

The forced quarantine of the five candidates has implied the cancellation of various scheduled tours of the southern country and a general readjustment in their agendas, which will be limited to presentations by videoconferences and interactions through social networks in the coming days.

“Obviously it is not good for the voters to have the candidates in quarantine. But many communicate with them through social networks or watch them on television. That minimizes the effect. However, it is important for candidates to debate and this is more difficult if they cannot see each other’s face. You have already experienced it in Peru, when some candidates could not appear in the debate, that weakens the possibility of dialogue and direct confrontation. That is not good news. Especially since between 25% and 30% of voters have not yet decided who to vote for”Navia warns.

“Obviously this can have effects on the difficulty of the deployment of the campaigns. Although the experience of the previous election showed that a campaign can be carried out from social networks, given the context of the pandemic, territorial presence is important for the final stretch of the presidential campaign and that the candidates can be on the streets. There will have to be a change in strategy and consider new ways of distributing time to achieve the expected agenda and impact”, Considers Beatriz Roque, political scientist of the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile.

Regarding the impact it will have on the development of the candidates, Callís believes that it will be a pause that benefits those leading the polls.

“In general, what this quarantine does is put an ellipsis within the campaign, it lowers the intensity a bit, because it was quite hot. The far-right candidate was getting quite a bit of profit out of that, so this situation puts a pause on him. And, at the same time, it would allow the candidate Boric correct some things that have made you notice about your program or your performance in the last two discussions”, Says Callís.

“But without a doubt those who most affect are those who are third and fourth, because they give them fewer ways to grow. TO Boric and closet these days of reflection are not bad for them”He adds.

Navia, for her part, considers that it will finally be closet who consolidates their growth in preference to this break.

“Suspending the campaign gives an advantage to closet because the other candidates will not be able to publicly criticize him or show his inconsistencies and inconsistencies. It is as if you were winning a game and it stops for a few minutes, the one who wins has an advantage over those who need to score goals”, He says.

Roque prefers to be more cautious about the effect the quarantine could have on Boric, although it recognizes that the communicational strategy will be decisive.

“The truth is that we cannot know if there will be a decrease or not (in the intention to vote towards Boric) because there is no evidence in this regard. It will depend a lot on the campaign deployed by the rank and file of the parties that make up the Frente Amplio.”, He says.