Follow LIVE the local and regional elections in Venezuela

Beyond choosing governors and mayors, Sunday’s elections in Venezuela could serve as a new starting point for the government of Nicolas Maduro, which seeks the lifting of sanctions, and the opposition, which returns to the polls after three years of boycott.

Fractured and weakened, the opposition rethinks its strategy by returning to the electoral arena with the aspiration of “fair” presidential elections in 2024 … or earlier. Its main parties refused to participate in the 2018 elections, in which Mature he was reelected, and 2020, in which Chavismo regained Parliament, denouncing them as “fraudulent.”

21 of the 30 million inhabitants of this country hit by the worst economic crisis are called to vote, in a process with 70,000 candidates for 23 governorships and 335 mayors, in addition to regional and municipal legislation.

These elections will be accompanied, for the first time in 15 years, by a European Union mission, deployed at the end of October.

“It is not known if they will be fair, free, transparent and verifiable”analyst Oswaldo Ramírez, director of the ORC firm, told AFP, although he considers that there are better “conditions” for this.

The power of Mature you are not at risk. The ruling Chavismo must win the vast majority of the positions.

What is playing Maduro?

The sanctions. The main objective of Mature, explains Ramírez, is that these are lifted, “especially those that weigh on oil issues.”

Target of sanctions led by the United States that the Chavista president maintains are the cause of the many problems of Venezuela, the government has funds blocked abroad and wants to sell its oil without restrictions, as well as import gasoline, scarce in the face of the destruction of the industry.

He has made certain concessions: he promoted a new directive from the National Electoral Council (CNE) with the presence of the opposition, although it is still dominated by Chavismo, and he invited observation missions from the EU, the Carter Center and the UN.

Venezuela He was reluctant for years to authorize this type of mission, always inviting organizations that are friendly to Chavismo.

“The regime needs this mission”said a senior opposition representative in reference to EU observers, present despite Maduro’s clashes with the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell.

How does the opposition arrive?

Divided and fragile. The so-called “interim presidency” of the opposition leader Juan Guaidó -recognized by fifty countries- it has “lost legitimacy” and has become “obsolete,” acknowledged opposition sources under reservation.

Although he has not called for abstention, Guaidó He will not vote, which reflects the opposition divisions on the eve of 2022 in which a recall referendum could be attempted against Maduro, a figure that allows the end of a term in the middle of its term. A similar initiative was blocked in 2016.

The presidential ones correspond in 2024.

The regionals were a perfect rehearsal to rekindle the mobilization next year. “2024 begins on January 1, 2022,” observed one leader.

However, with difficulties to unify candidates and unmotivated supporters, defeat is imminent.

“If you keep up with the fights and the bills, that’s heaven for Mature and the result of the election will be a consolidation of their power ”, estimated the director of the Datanálisis polling company, Luis Vicente León.

“If the opposition is intelligent” and assumes it as “a reason to revalidate itself (…), it can be an excellent opportunity for change in the future,” he added.

Fair vote?

The EU is scheduled to present its report next Tuesday.

An electoral specialist said that “there is no possibility of fraud” with the electronic voting system used in Venezuela, although there may be, as in previous processes, “coercion and persecution” in centers in a context of self-censorship in the media for fear of retaliation.

Opposition candidates have denounced profiteering, the use of public resources for Chavista campaigns, and little access to the media.

“We live in a dictatorship disguised as democracy,” accuses Fernando Andrade, an opposition candidate in the state of Táchira, on the border with Colombia.

Maduro, in contrast, promises “a great victory for democracy.”

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