Why the “mega-elections” in Venezuela are different (and how the opposition returning to the polls has changed)

The competition, after years of opposition boycott, returns to the electoral field in Venezuela.

In the “mega-elections”This Sunday, 3,082 positions were elected: 23 governorships, 335 mayors and hundreds of seats in local councils.

3,082 elections in which Chavismo will face a wide sector of the opposition that, for the most part, did not recognize the electoral system in the 2018 presidential elections or in the 2020 legislative elections.

This time there will also be impartial observation of the elections. And an international interest in whether the government of Nicolás Maduro can guarantee democratic competition.

“This Sunday we are going to give good news to the world”said the Venezuelan president.

Venezuelans will go to the polls at a rare time for the countryAfter decades of deep polarization, politics has ceased to be one of the main concerns of the people and de facto dollarization and economic openness have made it possible to mitigate the crisis, activate production and partially alleviate urgent needs.

Added to the apathy is that a fifth of the 21 million Venezuelans registered to vote will not be able to do so because they are abroad, where they have traveled fleeing the crisis. That is why one of the keys to these regional and municipal governments is whether, and by how much, the meager 30% participation of the legislatures of last year, in which Chavismo won without real competition, will be overcome.

And this Sunday, although the opposition participates, it is most likely that Chavismo will prevail again.

“It is clear that, due to the abstention and the unevenness in the contest, the first political force in the country will be Chavismo,” says political consultant Colette Capriles. “But that is why these elections will serve more as a kind of primaries, a measurement of forces, within each side.”

Both Chavismo and the opposition arrive divided, affected by a series of disqualifications, interventions and proscriptions that for many do not guarantee a truly democratic process. On both sides there are dozens of candidates frustrated by court rulings.

However, the renewal in May of the rectors in the National Electoral Council (CNE), some commitments established in the negotiation process in Mexico and international electoral observation give, for some, the notion that a democratic transition is being timidly born.

“We have to rebuild our institutions,” says Enrique Márquez, opposition politician and now rector of the CNE, the body that regulates elections and has been made up of members appointed by Chavismo for years.

“But for that we have to go little by little, like someone remodeling a house, part by part (…) Now at least we can say with absolute certainty that in the electoral sphere, after several audits and technical processes, we will once again have a safe, protected and secret vote, “adds the official.

How are these choices different?

The elections will have the observation of a mission from the European Union, another from the United Nations and one from the Carter Center, an organization specialized in electoral processes.

Since the legislative elections of 2015, in which the opposition won by a wide margin, the observation of neutral international entities has been reduced until disappearing.

If in 2020 these electoral commissions justified their absence due to “lack of democratic conditions”, an argument put forward by the opposition, now, at least in principle, they were moderately satisfied.

Despite the fact that dozens of politicians are disqualified, banned or even imprisoned, the renewal of the CNE has been an unprecedented development in decades.

Since 2006, the president of the CNE has been Tibisay Lucena, today a minister in Maduro’s cabinet, and the representativeness of the rectors was always questioned by the opposition, which only had one of five representatives in the electoral body.

“The United States sanctions forced the government to give in in various areas, and this renewal of the CNE is one of them,” says Luis Vicente León, analyst and pollster.

Today the opposition has two of the five CNE rectors, a difference that, according to Márquez, has resulted in, among other guarantees, “we will have solid witness accreditation systems.”

The opposition’s dilemma

The other big difference between these elections and the previous ones is that the opposition, which has not recognized Maduro as president since 2018, returned to the electoral game.

It is not the same opposition as before – there are new parties and new candidates – nor is it the entire opposition, because there are still groups that call for abstention, such as the Popular Will wing led by Juan Guaidó, who assures that “the regional and the municipalities are not the solution to conflicts “.

Even so, the anti-Chavismo this Sunday will have someone to vote for, if it dares.

“In the opposition to Chavismo until now, the branch that promised an insurrection or an abrupt change of government had more force, but now that availability of instant support for the sudden change seems to have deflated,” says Colette Capriles.

“The personal suffering has been so great that it has forced people to cut their ties with politics and that, although it affects the solidarity mechanisms, in turn allows a certain renewal of the opposition party structure, “he explains.

This time, the opposition does not promise the end of the Maduro government or base its cause on outrage against Chavismo. “Let no one come with a triumphalist air,” said Gustavo Duque, an opposition candidate for mayor of Caracas, at his closing campaign.

Experts see the elections as a referendum on the radical wing of the opposition led by Gauidó, considered by dozens of countries as the interim president of Venezuela and whose leadership is increasingly questioned.

“The opposition that participates seeks to establish itself as the true opposition, the one that can really generate changes in the country,” says Luis Vicente León.

But, at the same time, he remains skeptical: “The problem is that those who participate did not manage to joinThey will be divided into two or three very different alliances, and that will prevent having a clear map of the opposition forces after the elections. “

On the electronic card there will be almost 40 games. In opposition there are four different forces that, depending on their results, will claim more or less prominence.

This will be key for Guaidó’s leadership, for the negotiation process with Maduro in Mexico, which must be resumed in January, and for the upcoming elections (the presidential elections will be in 2024 and there is the possibility, albeit remote, that a recall referendum in 2022).

Venezuela tries to enter a political transition in the midst of the already initiated economic transition. It seems clear that the first, if it occurs, will be much slower than the second.

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