Elections: Is Latin America Turning Left Again?

At the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the next, the rise of a group of left-wing leaders colored Latin America. Characters like Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, Evo Morales in Bolivia and Rafael Correa in Ecuador dominated the regional scene. Decades later, and after a period in which right-wing governments were the majority on the Latin American map, the return of left and center-left regimes is advancing.

Currently, in the Latin American region There are 10 countries that, in the last elections, opted for governments of the left or center-left, and 10 those that chose heads of State of the right or center-right, regardless of what was the true line of the management of the elected presidents (see graph).

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The balance, however, could tip to the left after the upcoming electoral processes. In Colombia, for example, leads the polls for the 2022 elections Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla who is accused of sympathizing with Hugo Chavez and that he has promised to reestablish diplomatic relations with Venezuela and put an end to oil exploration.

On the other hand, in Chile, the latest polls reveal a certain advantage of the leftist Gabriel Boric about the right-wing candidate, Jose Antonio Kast. Both will meet in a ballot on December 19. Similarly, in Brazil, the former president of the left Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues to lead the electoral preferences with a view to next year’s elections. This country went from choosing the socialist Dilma Rousseff in 2011 to voting for the extreme right Jair Bolsonaro in 2018.

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“There was a first period at the end of the 20th century and at the beginning of this in which the left had a great emergence in countries such as Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela and Uruguay. Later, most of those governments were replaced by right-wing ones. And, for a few years, it seems that it is going back to the left”, Explains the internationalist Francisco Belaunde.

Examples of this return of the left to power in the region, indicates Belaunde, can be seen in the return of Kirchnerism –represented by Alberto Fernandez– in Argentina, in the elections for the Constituent Assembly in Chile, and in the triumphs of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico; Pedro Castillo in Peru Y Xiomara Castro in Honduras.

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For the specialist, however, the return of the left in the region “is not as forceful” as it was two decades ago.

“Twenty years ago there were much more powerful leaders, such as Hugo Chávez, Rafael Correa and Evo Morales”, He maintains.

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On the other hand, the internationalist Farid Kahhat points out that this apparent shift to the left in the region does not respond to ideological issues but, rather, to a rejection of the governments of the day.

“People vote by evaluating the performance of previous governments, regardless of whether they are from the right or the left. When the one in the government does not solve the problems, he is punished with the vote”, It indicates.

According to Kahhat, some factors that explain the rejection of the status quo in the region are the poor economic performance due to the end of the raw materials supercycle, the Lava Jato corruption scandal and the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Of “heavy hand”

In recent times, the emergence of authoritarian regimes, both on the right and on the left, has been observed in the region, “a trend that is on the rise,” according to Belaunde.

Heads like Nayib B Watch in El Salvador (right) and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua (left) they have been constantly accused of violating the rule of law in their respective countries.

Although to a lesser extent, presidents like Lopez Obrador in Mexico, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Fernandez in Argentina they have also had antidemocratic behaviors.

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“Does Chile become ‘Peruvian?”, By Alejandro Tapia, andeditor of “La Tercera Sábado”, from Chile

After the return to democracy in Chile, the outcome of the presidential elections was always predictable. It happened with Patricio Aylwin in 1989, with Eduardo Frei in 1993, with Michelle Bachelet in 2005 and 2013, and with Sebastián Piñera in 2009 and 2017. The only exception occurred in January 2000, when doubts about who would arrive at La Moneda were they held until the end, in a ballot that pitted Ricardo Lagos with Joaquín Lavín.

But this year’s elections have broken paradigms, with obvious similarities to the Peruvian elections. For this reason, in the first round of November 21, there was talk of the “Peruvianization” of the electoral process. This, due to the high number of candidates with real possibilities of going to the second round (five out of seven according to the polls at that time), due to the large percentage of undecided a month before the vote (one third of voters) and the feeling that everything would be defined in the last week or even on the day of the election, as is often the case in Peru.

More similarities? The two candidates with the most rejection and located at the extremes (José Antonio Kast and Gabriel Boric) are the ones who will face each other on December 19, in a scenario similar to what happened with Pedro Castillo and Keiko Fujimori. As in Peru, in Chile the center was pulverized, an important part will opt for the “lesser evil” or the “anti-vote” and the end will be vote by vote.

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Deshawn