Tunisia in the midst of a political crisis before major deadlines in 2022

Democratic decline, polarization, social and economic stagnation: Tunisia has been bogged down in the crisis since the coup by President Kais Saied, who launched a “popular consultation” on Saturday with a view to adopting controversial reforms to put the country back on its feet. rails. In a context of political deadlock, Kais Saied took full powers on July 25 in the country which was the cradle of the Arab Spring in 2011. The president notably sacked the Prime Minister and suspended the Parliament dominated by the party of Islamist inspiration Ennahdha, his pet peeve whose deputy president Noureddine Bhiri was arrested this Friday.

Since this summer, Kais Saied has governed by decree despite the protests of his opponents and national organizations including the powerful union center UGTT (General Tunisian Labor Union). On December 13, he unveiled a roadmap intended to get out of the crisis with a legislative election scheduled for December 2022, after revision of the electoral law, and a referendum in July to amend the Constitution, which he wants more “presidential” At the expense of Parliament.

Uncertainties and gray areas on the referendum

Earlier, from January 1 to March 20, an electronic “popular consultation” will be organized across the country to generate ideas that should serve as a basis for constitutional amendments. A singular process which illustrates, according to his detractors, the “populist” methods of the president, elected in 2019 with nearly 73% of the vote and who continues to enjoy solid popularity.

“The country is swimming in political uncertainty even after the announcement by Kais Saied of his roadmap which does not seem to reassure the partners, neither inside nor outside,” indicates political scientist Hamza Meddeb. “There are a lot of questions about the reliability of this process. We have never tried this kind of referendums in Tunisia and we do not know how the president intends to organize these consultations. There are a lot of gray spots, ”he believes. These consultations will begin “in the midst of socio-economic malaise with questions concerning freedoms”, adds the political scientist, deploring “a repression with a covered face”.

Fierce political repression

And the financial situation is not very encouraging. In the budget presented on Tuesday, Tunisia plans to increase its debt by an additional six billion euros to revive an economy heavily affected by the political crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. “Since July 25, there is a single institution and a single person who decides the future of this country (…) and until then, nothing suggests that there will be hope”, denounces the famous political and human rights activist, Bochra Belhaj Hmida. She has just been sentenced to six months in prison for a complaint from a former minister dating back to 2012, a verdict the timing of which appeals as it fell a few days after she publicly criticized President Saied.

Other politicians and activists have been prosecuted after taking positions against Kais Saied on social media. Former President Moncef Marzouki, living in France, was sentenced in absentia on December 22 to four years in prison for having “undermined the security of the State abroad”, after having publicly criticized the Tunisian authorities. Human Rights Watch has denounced the increase since July 25 of legal proceedings against various opponents, which, according to HRW, are based on “repressive” laws. The National Union of Journalists in Tunisia, for its part, warned against “an imminent danger threatening the freedom of the press, media and expression”.