The war between FARC and ELN dissidents (and their ties to Maduro) show that peace is still far from Colombia

Although the peace process in Colombia was officially terminated in 2016, after the signing of the agreement that was achieved, with great fanfare, by former President Juan Manuel Santos with the FARC, the war in the countryside is far from over. Above all, because the actors and their motivations have changed as well.

In another stage of this renewed war, 24 people died between last Sunday and Monday after bloody clashes in the Colombian department of Arauca, border with Venezuela, among the guerrillas of the National Liberation Army (ELN) -which is still active in the country- and dissident groups of the FARC, who never acceded to the peace treaty.

ALSO READ: 3 keys to understanding the long-standing rivalry between the FARC and the ELN (and how it fills the Colombia-Venezuela border with violence)

Among the deceased there are four Venezuelans, which shows the complexity of this renewed conflict that involves two countries that share a border and whose governments are, for now, irreconcilable.

“These groups have been operating at ease in Venezuelan territory with the protection of the dictatorial regime,” the Colombian president said on Monday, Ivan duque. However, Venezuela’s defense minister, the powerful Vladimir Padrino López, rejected those accusations, noting that Duque blames Venezuela for Colombia’s ills.

The president of Colombia, Iván Duque, together with the defense minister of his country and the commanders of the armed forces, indicate the strategy to be followed in Arauca after the confrontations between the ELN and dissident groups of the FARC. COLOMBIA PRESIDENCY (- /)

The dissident groups of the FARC There are about 5,200 combatants, according to the independent study center Indepaz, and most of its new recruits – around 85% – have joined in recent years, that is, they never belonged to the defunct organization that signed the peace agreement with the Colombian state.

Both the fronts of the FARC that continue to operate as the THE N They continue to fight for the control of illegal airstrips to export cocaine and other drugs from the border area, according to Colombian military intelligence.

Criminals in conflict. INFOGRAPHIC: ANTONIO TARAZONA

The new actors in an old conflict

To understand the conflict a little more it is necessary to understand who is facing it now.

On the one hand, the ELN (the National Liberation Army) It is an ultra-left guerrilla that emerged in the 1960s and continues to be active, despite the fact that the number of insurgents has been quite reduced: about 2,500 men and women. However, it is estimated that half of them operate in Venezuelan territory, especially in the border state of Apure.

The dissident groups of the FARC have regrouped on different fronts that continue to operate, especially in rural areas. One of the strongest is the Front 10.

Since 2016, some 13,000 FARC guerrillas have been demobilized. But some 5,000 have ignored the peace agreement and have continued with their criminal activities, especially related to drug trafficking. EFE (Mauricio Dueñas Castañeda /)

Román D. Ortiz, a Washington-based security analyst who lived in Colombia for many years, tells El Comercio the story of this confrontation: “The 10th Front started in the late 1990s and began to confront the ELN for controlling the narcotics corridor in Arauca. The confrontation left many dead between both sides. But years before the demobilization, they reached a kind of agreement, which later sprang up with the peace treaty ”.

Thus, after the peace agreement, both groups continued to clash in the area. To this we would have to add another variable: the Second Marquetalia, dissident group formed, for the most part, by former FARC guerrilla leaders who departed from the treaty, such as ‘Iván Márquez’, ‘Jesús Santrich’ and ‘El Paisa’. This group is based, above all, in Venezuela.

So the FARC dissidents are divided. On the one hand, the fronts that operate in the interior of Colombia and that have been articulated by the guerrilla leader ‘Gentil Duarte‘; and the Second Marquetalia, which is going through a crisis due to the murder of high-profile characters such as ‘Santrich’ and ‘El Paisa’.

Miguel Botache Santillana, alias ‘Gentil Duarte’, is one of the most wanted men by the Colombian State. The guerrilla has been in charge of articulating the different dissident groups of the FARC. PHOTO: TWITTER

“The Segunda Marquetalia and the ELN are directly connected with the Chavista regime. So, the battle line is now established between these two groups, on the one hand, and on the other the front 10 associated with ‘Gentil Duarte’ “explains Ortiz.

The analyst points out, however, that the THE N and the Front 10 They have been facing each other for several years and that what happened this week will not cause a change or a break in the current situation. “The difference is that the Colombian State was previously strong in the department of Arauca, which helped to maintain the ‘status quo’. One of the key factors is that Colombia’s military capacity is wearing thin, so that makes everything more volatile and that there are more confrontations between these criminal gangs ”.

After what happened on Monday, President Duque ordered the dispatch of two battalions of 600 soldiers to Arauca, in addition to strengthening security in this department and increasing intelligence activities.

One more line for Duque

To this should be added the political context, since Colombia has already entered the electoral campaign for the presidential elections in May, while the image of President Iván Duque continues in free fall.

Although the panorama is still undefined, the candidate who has the most support, for now, is the leftist Gustavo Petro who, if he won the elections, would have a more friendly position with Venezuela.

“If Petro wins, it is highly probable that there will be a negotiation with the ELN,” says Ortiz. “One of Petro’s objectives is to try to change the Constitution and for that he needs a majority in Congress. It is difficult to achieve it, but it could generate support through a peace process, and there the ELN would have a key factor “, adds.

Could the next elections, then, be the ideal scenario for the guerrilla confrontation to escalate? Ortiz clarifies what could happen in the short term in Colombia: “It is plausible to think that the battle between the ELN and the men of ‘Gentil Duarte’ will spread to other areas of Colombia, but especially in rural areas. I have doubts that there are urban attacks because that would have an electoral impact, and none of these organizations are interested in breaking the current course of the campaign that is, for now, favorable to Petro. “

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