The keys in the race for the head of state in Italy

Italy will vote from Monday for the next President of the Republic, who will replace Sergio Mattarella starting February 3, when his current seven-year term ends. These are the keys to the parliamentary process:

MARIO DRAGHI Y MATTEO RENZI

The current Italian prime minister, Mario Draghi, and the former head of government Matteo Renzi will play a key role. The first already showed in December his availability to occupy the Head of State, but it would put the parties at a crossroads, which would have to elect another figure to lead the Government or hold early elections.

For his part, Renzi and his small party, Italia Viva, to which the polls give an intention to vote of less than 5%, appears as the hinge between the right and left bloc, which separately lack of the necessary support to push a candidate forward.

THE ROLE OF THE RIGHT

The coalition formed by the conservative Forza Italia and the far-right League and Brothers of Italy calls for the election of a related candidate because together they have more parliamentary representation than the left-wing bloc and the 5-Star Movement (M5S). And besides, all the presidents of the last decade have had a progressive orientation.

However, numbers are not enough and they will require the support of other parliamentarians, so their tactics to convince other political forces will be essential.

THE “SNIPER”

In this sense, one of the greatest threats facing the race for the presidency is that of the “snipers”, those who vote against party discipline protected by anonymity.

The parties will have to make an effort to keep their ranks together and avoid this phenomenon, so frequent in Italian politics, if they do not want surprises.

HOW TO VOTE

A total of 1,009 “great electors” will elect the next head of state. In the first three votes, a qualified majority of two thirds is required, the equivalent of 673 voters, and from the fourth the absolute majority will suffice (half plus one, that is, 505 voters). There is no maximum number of rounds.

There will be one a day due to the pandemic, not two as before, and voters will deliver their ballots in turns, in groups of 50 and in alphabetical order. There cannot be more than 200 at the same time in the plenary session of the Chamber of Deputies to guarantee social distance and prevent contagion.

THE INFECTED

Parliamentarians who have the health certificate, which is obtained by being vaccinated, having passed the disease or having undergone a negative test in the previous hours, will be able to access the Lower House.

One of the doubts was what to do with the deputies and senators who are currently infected and isolated, more than thirty, although the number changes every day, and that the law prevents them from traveling to Rome.

The Government has approved a decree that allows them to leave their home to travel to the capital by car or ambulance to vote, although they will not be able to have contact with anyone, they must remain in the place indicated for the night and always with a mask.

THE PENSION OF PARLIAMENTARIANS

If Draghi is elected President of the Republic, one scenario could be that of early elections if the current and heterogeneous government coalition fails to hold together.

However, this scenario is unlikely and one factor is that three out of four MPs were first elected in 2018 and need to hold their seat for at least 4.5 years to keep their pension, so they could try to prevent early elections.

WHAT IF THERE IS NO NAME BY FEBRUARY 3?

In the event that the parties do not reach a consensus before February 3, when Mattarella’s seven-year term expires, there could be two scenarios: that Mattarella remains in office temporarily or that the functions are provisionally assumed by the president of the Senate, Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati.

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