OPEC sees global oil demand grow through 2035

This is grim news for the environment. According to OPEC, global oil demand is not about to decline. In its latest annual report released on Monday, the organization sees global oil demand growing through to 2035, driven by developing countries, including Africa, India and other countries in Asia, mainly for supply transport and petrochemicals.

While global demand in 2021 was estimated at 96.9 million barrels per day (mb/d), it would rise to 109.5 mb/d by 2035, when it would stabilize at 109.8 mb /d over the next decade, estimates this report from the oil-producing cartel. “Demand from OECD countries is on a declining trajectory after 2024, falling to 34 mb/d” over the period covered which extends to 2045 (compared to 44.8 mb/d in 2021), i.e. a drop of nearly 11 mb/d, say the authors of the report.

“Expansion of the middle classes”

Conversely, “long-term demand from non-OECD countries should increase by 24 mb/d” over this period, “driven by an expansion of the middle classes, strong demographic growth and an increasing potential for economic growth” , according to this report.

“As a result, global oil demand is expected to increase by 12.9 mb/d, reaching 109.8 mb/d in 2045,” conclude the authors of this report. They are counting on a fairly long plateau from 2035, due to “energy policies and technological developments” likely to promote diversification of the future energy mix.