“On a crest line”, the government seeks to convince the right, the left… and its majority

On immigration, the macronists as tightrope walkers. The government unveiled Wednesday the main lines of its bill on the subject. Between hardening on expulsions and welcoming immigrant workers, the executive intends to find the right “balance”. “If I had to sum up, I would say that we must now be mean to the mean and nice to the good”, said Gérald Darmanin, the Minister of the Interior, on Wednesday.

Behind the formula, a reality: for lack of an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the executive intends to seduce beyond its ranks, to hope to pass the text in the first half of 2023.

“It is a firm but balanced text”

The measures taken in recent days therefore focus on two aspects. The government intends in particular to raise the low rate of execution of the obligations to leave French territory, the famous OQTF [entre 5 et 12 % ces dernières années], and respond to criticism from the National Rally and the Republicans at the time of the Lola affair. But he also announced that he wanted to focus on professional integration, offering a “job in tension” residence permit, to recruit in sectors with a labor shortage.

“There is a logic of rights and duties. We want to facilitate the procedures and the integration of those who come to work, who meet the economic needs of our country”, assures Benjamin Haddad, deputy for Paris. “And at the same time, we want to toughen the execution of OQTFs, in particular against offenders, reduce the number and time of appeals. It is a firm but balanced text, ” pleads the spokesperson for the Renaissance group. By relying on two legs, the executive hopes to find voices on the left and right of the hemicycle.

The limit of “at the same time”

But the first measures did not really find a favorable echo in the opposition. On the left, it was expected. But the right of the Hemicycle, it has not really tasted the economic component. The Republicans have thus denounced a “massive regularization” to come from foreigners and a government which “is preparing to create a breath of fresh air”.

The executive comes up against his “at the same time” here: by wanting to convince both sides, he may well convince neither one nor the other. “We are on a ridge line. If we go too far one way or another, it will block. We can hope that it will pass with abstentions, but it will be very complicated…”, already predicts a MoDem deputy.

“On a hyper touchy subject, this good cop/bad cop duo is interesting”

Especially since the government must take care of its mount. In 2018, the latest asylum-immigration reform had sown discord for many months within the Macronist group. And if the main “slingers” are no longer present today, the subject remains inflammable on the left wing of Renaissance. On several occasions in recent months, Gérald Darmanin has thus hung on the migratory question with the deputy Sacha Houlié. Cautious, the president of the Law Commission nevertheless seems favorable to the first elements revealed. “Wednesday’s announcements were a step in the right direction, even if some corrections later reduced them. We will continue to work and discuss it, ”says Saché Houlié, while the Minister of the Interior has notably proposed to systematically register people threatened with expulsion in the file of wanted persons (RPF).

To demine tensions, the bubbling Gérald Darmanin was not sent to the front alone. The Beauvau tenant is accompanied by his colleague from Labor, Full Employment and Integration, Olivier Dussopt, a former socialist. “On a hyper touchy subject, this good cop / bad cop pair is interesting, even if the bad cop will not be the same depending on the camp”, breathes the elected MoDem.

let the winter pass

In the majority, we say we are convinced of being able to embark right-wing elected officials, and even certain socialists, on the future text. “Once the internal elections have passed (in December for LR and in January for the PS), everyone will come out of the postures”, wants to believe a macronist.

For Benjamin Haddad, the work in committee on the amendments will make it possible to find a balanced path. “There are two caricatural visions on this subject. Zero immigration on the far right, and laxity on the far left. Between the two, we can find a consensus with the constructive and responsible opposition”.