Who is the favorite to win the Clausura? Six analysts respond

1. Who is your favorite to win the Clausura and why?
2. How do you explain Melgar’s downturn, Cristal’s fall after 25 games and Alianza Lima’s rebound?

David Chávez, journalist at Movistar Sports

1. I think Lima Alliance starts as a favorite to win the Closing due to the solidity that ‘Chicho’ Salas’ team has shown with 4 consecutive victories, winning at height as in Cusco and Ayacucho. In addition, at home it is an unbeatable team that imposes conditions from the start.

2nd Melgar It happened to him what happens to all teams that reach a high level of performance: they lower their level a little. In fact, it affected Lorenzo’s departure and Lavallén has had to live with the team’s problems. As to Crystal, one day he had to lose the undefeated record of 25 games, but it happened at a time when Alianza had been picking up. The Celestes depended on themselves, if they won that match against Grau they wouldn’t be depending on other results to win the Clausura now. For Alianza, having ‘Chicho’ Salas on the bench has lifted it enormously. When it was believed that he resigned himself to losing the year, if he wins tomorrow he will secure the Clausura and, in addition, a place in the final directly.

Ana Lucía Rodríguez, journalist at GOLPERÚ

1. Today my favorite is, without a doubt, Lima Alliance. I believe that the tournament had a resounding change in recent dates. In fact, at the beginning my candidate was Cristal, because of that streak of 25 games without losing and because of how he had been playing. Alianza surprised us all and ended the Clausura as a local, against ADT, as the favorite and is coming off a very important victory in Ayacucho. The team is highly motivated. Alianza depends on Alianza and that makes them candidates.

2. The second half of the year ends up taking its toll on Melgar after the wear and tear of the Copa Sudamericana. His game changed in relation to the first part and that string of matches in the local tournament and the South American where he always fought, I repeat, it took its toll. By the side of Crystal, although he has had a quite outstanding game, one of the best in the tournament, it cost him a lot when he had to face teams that were falling back. In many games where he was the favorite he ended up getting the result in favor, but also getting complicated, the counter-attack did him a lot of damage. They are football things, losing the undefeated can cost him the tournament. Regarding the rebound of Alianza, it has a lot to do with the hand of ‘Chicho’ Salas. He has earned the trust of the squad, he has given a new look to the team and it has to do with some changes he has made. Many of the footballers have improved in terms of level quite a lot thanks to him. He has known how to plan the matches well and that has worked.

Eddie Fleischman, journalist

1. My favorite is Lima Alliance because it depends on itself. They have a game that for a team aspiring to be champions, they should pull it off, with their audience, on their surely full stage, with their entire squad against a rival like ADT that doesn’t have a special motivation, they do have some interesting players, but It doesn’t have the template level that Alianza has. I believe that all the conditions are met for Alianza, Cristal and Melgar to win, but Alianza’s victory is enough to define the Clausura champion.

2. I think it is the irregularity of the teams. Melgar He faced two intense tournaments throughout the first semester, won one, reached the semifinal of another, but then he became a little deflated and the change of coach did not suit him and that made him fall into irregular results. CrystalOn the other hand, I think he doesn’t have a goal specialist, but he was winning games. Merit for Mosquera and his technical command, from the squad, but he let some results slip away. He let the undefeated escape at the least indicated moment, when there was no longer any margin for error or there was no possibility of recovery and, well, he had to lose and give Alianza the chance to reach the top.

Jampool Cuadros, journalist at Soccer in America

1. Generally, whoever closes the season better arrives more empowered. Then, alliance He has shown in his last seven wins -highlighting those in Cusco and Ayacucho- that when he wants, he can. The intimates are narrow favorites and driven by the timely leadership of Guillermo Salas.

2. It is difficult to sustain a good campaign without relaxing as it happened with Melgar. The elimination of the Copa Sudamericana meant a small break point but enough to give up space in the table. In the case of Crystal, the main person responsible for cutting his good streak was Grau, a serious and consistent team. It’s that simple. The change of coach came in handy for Alianza. Salas demonstrated his practicality and knowledge of the group in a difficult moment for the team. Virtue where he looks at it.

Eduardo Combe, journalist at América Deportes and Canal N

1. Until Tuesday at 3 in the afternoon it was Crystal. But something I have learned is that whoever comes as a racehorse becomes the favorite, and in that case it is alliance. Alianza has the first option. You can be a direct finalist and that means waiting quietly for a week while Cristal would have to travel to Arequipa. Alliance is more curdled. That Farfán is present is no small thing. Cristal’s counterpart: Yotún is injured. More for Videna than in Florida.

2. The comedown Melgar Almost all the champions of the Apertura have it. There are very few who champion the two quiet tournaments such as Alianza del 97, the ‘U’ of 2000 and Alianza de 2017. The interlude of the regulations, was born because in 2001, alliance He made a great Opening and a terrible Closing. And then there were those who objected why an irregular team had that chance to be champion. It is a rule so that the champion of the Opening does not have downturns. Now, about Melgar coincides with the departure of Lorenzo. It is to be taken into account. As to Crystal, lost the undefeated because Grau plays well. It’s not so easy to analyze: half of their home games are not televised. But Grau confidently closes the tournament. The rebound of Lima Alliance It has a lot to do with the change of coach. Salas does not seem distant like Bustos.

Gustavo Peralta, journalist at Campeonísimo

1. By numbers and everything is alliance. I held before Crystal lose the step that Alliance was my favorite. The change of coach did him good, I saw a different Alianza. And Cristal is irregular. Still, he has his chances, but I see an Alliance so strong on and off the field. The Chicho Salas thing is a plus. It is that technician who transmits, who knows how to reach the player. When you have a technician like this, you have 50% of the work done. He perfectly understands what Alianza Lima means. But watch out, on the other side is Mosquera who has miles of football.

2. The comedown Melgar It’s natural because they had an illusion that was to reach the final of the Copa Sudamericana. And it does not occur in a context of struggle, but in a very ugly global. He falls to Independiente del Valle. That it was not deserved for Melgar for what he had done. There is psychological and physical exhaustion. Today it shows. To this is added that Lavallén does not hold the hand of the team. Today from Lavallén more complaints are heard. He cannot blame his luck on arbitration, which is bad for everyone. Cristal’s fall speaks to how irregular it is. It is a team that feels more comfortable visiting than at home. Grau, the ‘giant killer’, surprised him. They also lack variants in attack. If they had an Emanuel Herrera of the level when he was the top scorer of the year, surely he would have won the Clausura a long time ago.

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