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Qatar 2022: The Peruvian statistical model that gives Brazil as champion and explains the triumphs of Arabia and Japan

Qatar 2022 It could go down in history as the World’s Technological Revolution. From the construction of “refrigerated” stadiums and an entire city to the VAR and SAOT, systems that, in theory, seek to help referees. But it is also in the predictions. Without Paul the Octopus, science began to gain ground in forecasting results as close to reality as possible.

Peru, beyond not being present in the World Cup, is no stranger to the World Cup. Ienzo Duarte and Guillermo Byrne, two Peruvian economists, created a mathematical model 16 long years ago, for Germany 2006, which is, according to their calculations, almost 80% effective; that is, success.

“We know that football is never going to be predicted one hundred percent and that is precisely where the magic of this sport lies”tells us Ienzo, who along with his great friend, Incredible falls short.

“What has had a good and very good success in history is to say who are the 16 who go to the round of 16. It is 80% correct. That percentage is like hitting 13 out of 16. Normally one is in a position to hit 10 of the 16 classified, but those three more is what the model gives you”adds Ienzo.

Ienzo and Guillermo took five variables -in addition to studying others- to shape the model, which are: .

Precisely the first three items, within everything, give as a result that the Brazilian team, which will debut this Thursday against Serbia (2 pm) It is the one that will end up being celebrated on December 18 by raising its sixth World Cup.

Brazil, world champion

The value of the team, as Duarte explains, is the competitive value of the team. That is, how much each player contributes to the competitiveness of the squad. An item that is very difficult to calculate and has to do a lot with the analytical eye of both.

“For example -he points out-, in Brazil they have neymar who plays for Paris Saint Germain. So how is PSG doing in Ligue 1? If the team has 90% points, we will say that it has 90% competitiveness of the weight of the French league. Then, how are you doing in the Champions League and the other cups you play? The bottom line is to say that the more competitive a player is in a league, the stronger he will be able to contribute to the competitiveness of his team. And, of course, as long as his team does well ”.

At Canarinha, 22 of the 26 called up by coach Tite for Qatar 2022 play in one of the five major leagues in Europe. And the majority in clubs that compete for the first places in their respective domestic competitions.

“This variable, which is built for each of the 830 players who are in the World Cup, has been a problem in this edition because the European season is just beginning. On the other hand, before the World Cup was played, finishing all the championships ”points out Ienzo.

The second variable is the “collective performance” or “ELO rating”, which is a coefficient created for chess players many years ago in which it was measured and gave you points based on the level of your rival. “In the case of soccer, we analyze if a team is playing at home or away, if it is an official or friendly tournament, the number of goals you have scored or conceded. It is a function of all that is calculated”He says.

“It’s an index that looks at how well a team is doing collectively. And in the last rating it is shown that the first team is Brazil and the second is Argentina. It drags along the most recent history because as they have better results, you keep that part. He’s showing you how well this team collectively plays.”.

The third variable is “the weight of the story”. “It has to do with the World Cup experience of the teams, since acquiring that you know how to face the different types of matches that may arise”justifies Ienzo, who gives an example: .

“There we built an index based on the performance of all the World Cups, giving weight to the closest ones because we cannot measure the same Uruguay of 1930 and 1950 as France of 2018. Germany has a very good performance, beyond Russia 2018 and his loss to Japan, for which he was first in the ranking. Brazil is second and then comes Argentina”.

After the analysis, the hours and hours in front of a laptop, start Y William They concluded that Brazil would be world champion. Scratch would go first in their group, defeat Uruguay in the round of 16, Germany in the quarterfinals, and collide with Argentina in the semifinals. After beating Lionel Messi’s Albiceleste, they would face France in the grand final and take the victory, taking revenge on the definition in France 98 that gave the Gauls their first trophy.

This prognosis would end with two “curses”. The first is that of the current champion who fails to get past the group stage, something that happened to Italy in 2010 after winning in 2006, Spain in 2014 and Germany in 2018. The second is that of the ranking leaders who They arrived with the crown at a World Cup and could never touch glory.

Photo: Ienzo Duarte

Historic Saudi Arabia and Japan Wins Explained

Qatar 2022 has surprised the world with two unexpected results: Argentina 1-2 Saudi Arabia Y Germany 1-2 Japan. The Asians gave the bump at the start of the contest, leaving more than one speechless. However, these anomalous situations are contemplated in one of the variables of the statistical model.

The fourth item is “the influence of the locality”. “It is a variable that the model accepts very well because in the background we have Korea reaching the semifinals in 2002, the year in which they organized the World Cup together with Japan. Or Russia settling in the quarterfinals in the last edition. In fact, it is normal for a host to go through, although that did not happen in South Africa 2010 and it seems that it will not happen now in Qatar.”explains Ienzo.

For Peruvians, the locality is important and not only because of the fans and the enthusiasm generated by the fact that your country is the center of the world for a month, but also because of external issues such as the weather. “In South Africa there was a debate about whether it was an advantage only for the hosts or for Africans in general. And Ghana ended up reaching the quarterfinals. It is evident that there is a weight of the premises and the model reflects it that way”.

So it was for the localsYearStagewho beat him
France1938Quarter finalsThe champion
Swiss1954Quarter finals
Mexico1970Quarter finalsthe finalist
Spain1982Quarter finalsthe finalist
Mexico1986Quarter finalsthe finalist
USA1994round of 16The champion
round of 16
the semifinalist
South Africa2010Group stage
Russia2018Quarter finalsthe finalist
Data: Ienzo Duarte

But that perhaps did not surprise Ienzo so much that Saudi Arabia and Japan, two Asian countries somewhat accustomed to how to play in Qatar, struck a blow on the first date and defeated Argentina Y Germanytwo candidates for the title.

The last variable is the effect of the “third party”. What is it referring to? “Because there are times when a team reaches the last date ranked in first place, then they usually give rest to some starters, so they tend to give strange results, so to speak. In 2014, France had already qualified on the second date and in the last game they ended up drawing goalless against Ecuador.”.

The Qatar 2022 World Cup continues its march and Ienzo and Guillermo are enjoying the most anticipated tournament by all, but at the same time they update the statistical model at all times. A technological work of art in the middle of a contest that is also a work.


Source: Elcomercio

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