Barcelona: How do you explain Xavi’s failure and what statistic favors Tapia’s Celta today in the LaLiga match?

A packed stadium in Korea: “Xavi stay, Xavi stay”. The song would be encouraging if the authors were dressed in blaugrana at the Camp Nou, and not in Real Madrid merengue at the Bernabéu. Ancelotti’s team enjoys the 4-0 win over Girona, its absolute leadership in LaLiga and, incidentally, makes fun of the fact that the archrival has a coach sitting on the substitute bench who has already announced that he will leave at the end of the season.

“As a culer I cannot allow this situation, a change of course is needed,” said Xavi Hernández on January 27 after Barcelona lost 3-5 to Villarreal at home at the Montjuic Olympic Stadium.

Why don’t they play at the Camp Nou? Among all the pending issues of the Catalan club is the remodeling of its main field, and this season they moved to play in the colossus that, exactly, tomorrow, February 18, will celebrate 20 years of having received Spain’s 2-1 victory over Peru in a duel friendly that had a great goal from Nolberto Solano.

In a Spanish league dominated by Real Madrid (leader with 61 points), ten more than Barcelona; in a Copa del Rey where Athletic Bilbao never tires of giving surprises (they eliminated the culés and beat Atlético de Madrid in the semis); and in a Champions League, where they will visit Napoli in a few days for the round of 16. The outlook is not encouraging in the Barza World. And today he will have a test in Balaídos against Renato Tapia’s Celta (12:30 pm), a club that receives him with a hidden statistic in its favor, and with the obligation to get out of the bottom of the standings.

The nostalgia that does not heal the heart

The break in the history of Barcelona that Pep Guardiola made from the position of technical director only had a time of peace and joy with Luis Enrique on the bench. The two former Blaugrana footballers led the club to win different titles, three Champions Leagues and three club World Cups (2009, 2011, 2015), and they fully enjoyed the best example of Lionel Messi’s football.

However, Pep’s departure could not be cured with the command of Tito Vilanova and Gerardo Martino, and after the departure of Luis Enrique, between Valverde, Setién and Koeman they only made the pool to fill at Barza bigger.

The earthquake of Messi’s departure in 2021, the work of Joan Laporta, sought to be compensated with the return of Xavi Hernández, this time as coach. A nod to culé nostalgia, a message to the past so that everything done by Guardiola and Luis Enrique is repeated. Nothing further.

The numbers speak for themselves. Of the 125 games that If it weren’t about Barza, we would be talking about excellent statistics. But because it is the Catalan club, the 61.6% effectiveness is not enough if we compare it with the 72.5% that Pep achieved (2008-2012) or the 76.2% that Luis Enrique had (2014-2017).

The worst milestones

Perhaps not having Lionel Messi in the squad is an important factor in determining Xavi’s success or failure as Blaugrana coach. However, his arrival (November 8, 2021) was marked by global disappointment. Barza was eliminated from the Champions League in the group stage with Hernández on the bench, drawing at home (0-0) against Benfica and losing 3-0 against visiting Bayern Munich. It hasn’t happened to them since the 2000-2001 season.

The fall would be much harder when, a year later, they would repeat terrible performances in Europe and would once again be eliminated in a group that Bayern Munich dominated and had Inter Milan, finalist of that edition, as a surprise. Barza would attend the Europa League in consecutive years, but also fell by the wayside at the hands of Eintracht Frankfurt (quarterfinals, 2021-2022) and Manchester United (16th finals, 2022-2023).

He hasn’t done well in the Copa del Rey either. Since Xavi arrived he has had Athletic Bilbao as his executioner on two occasions (round of 16, 2022) and (quarterfinals, 2024). However, if we talk about this competition, it is impossible to forget the 0-4 that Real Madrid gave them in the semifinals in 2023 at the Camp Nou.

The only tournament that Xavi’s Barza is saved is in LaLiga, where today it occupies third place with 51 points, ten less than the Merengue leader. With Hernández they won the league title for the 2022-2023 season, one of the two awards in his coaching record (the other is the 2023 Spanish Super Cup). The LaLiga campaign they won was achieved with 88 points above Real Madrid (78).

If we make a parallel between the previous season and the current one, in the same first 24 rounds, the culés had achieved 62 points (20 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses) and were leaders with 86.1% effectiveness. In the current campaign they have only achieved 15 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses, that is, 51 units, which represent 70% success in the competition.

At the beginning of this year, Marca stated in a note to the Economic Support Sport consultancy (ESS), where “the unfortunate future that awaits Barcelona is explained in a simpler way, based on the calculation of the effectiveness of each team.”

“Barcelona, ​​which in the first round has achieved 110% effectiveness of its resources and methods, an apparently positive fact, would not be able to reach the top. Therefore, if things don’t change, the injured return, they get stronger in the form of signings, etc. “It could finish in an unusual fifth place, for some reflecting a poor season, with unexpected results, being left out of the Champions League positions,” they announced.

An expensive and unanswerable template

Name by name: Ferran Torres, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Adamá Traoré, Dani Alves, Raphinha, Jules Koundé, Robert Lewandowski, Pablo Torre, Franck Kessié, Andreas Christensen, Héctor Bellerín, Marcos Alonso, Vitor Roque, Oriol Romeu, Ilkay Gündogan, Iñigo Martínez, Joao Cancelo and Joao Félix. In total 18 elite footballers.

Some arrived without prior payment, but the signings of Ferran (55M euros), Lewandoswki (50M), Koundé (62.5M) and Raphinha (67M) stand out. A golden ball consecrated in Germany that became the Pichichi of LaLiga. The other hires have not shined in important performances.

The most serious of these million-dollar contracts, explains Toni Frieros in Sport (April, 2023) is in how the money was obtained to be able to sign. “On June 28 (2022), around the clock so as not to close with million-dollar losses, the club sold 10% of the audiovisual rights to the Sixth Street fund for 200 million euros and another 15% to the same American company for 320 million. on July 22. On August 1, it transferred 25% of Barza Studios to the Socios platform (it kept the Metaverse, NFT and Tokens business) for 100 million and on August 12, the remaining 24.5% of Barça Studios to Orpheus Media , managed by Jaume Roures for another 100 ‘kilos’. “Four levers, equal to 720 million euros.”

What is the real cost of these signings? “Each season 40 million less, and multiply that by 25. We are talking about 1,000 million euros! An unprecedented outrage,” Frieros published.

The Xavi era will be marked by having the two titles that cost the club the most.

The Peruvian executioner

After celebrating its centenary (last August 23), Celta set out to give its fans a season that decorates its 100 years of life. However, he marches against the current. Today they have 20 points and are close to the relegation zone in 17th place in the table.

However, the good news from Vigo comes from the Peruvian Renato Tapia, who is in his fourth season in LaLiga. The national midfielder was chosen for the second consecutive month as Celta’s best player (Estrella Galicia Award).

His performances respond to the trust given to him by coach Rafael Benítez and he has even worn the captain’s ribbon in the absence of Iago Aspas and Kevin Vázquez, leaders of the squad. In 16 games, the Sofascore statistics web portal gives him, in 2024 games alone, an average of 7 rating points.

Celta with Tapia as the starter receives Xavi’s debiting Barcelona today (12:30 pm). The Peruvian team comes to this match with a revealing piece of information. They are the last team to beat Barza at home in LaLiga. June 4, 2023 passed and Tapia played the last 19 minutes of the game.