Diplomacy finally has a chance

The roller coaster game continues in the Ukrainian crisis. At the start of the week, statements alternate between imminent war and diplomatic settlement. Westerners and Moscow thus spoke on Monday of a chance of a diplomatic outcome, the United States believing that Vladimir Putin had not made his “final decision” on the outbreak of an invasion.

In a context of heightened tensions, Washington however tempered this hope by saying that Moscow had further strengthened its military capacities on the borders of Ukraine during the weekend, where more than 100,000 soldiers have been massed for weeks. “Military action could occur at any time,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby. “There remains a crucial opportunity for diplomacy,” however, underlined British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and US President Joe Biden, who spoke on Monday by telephone.

Russia must seize ‘dialogue offers’

And efforts to salvage the situation continue. Olaf Scholz is going to Moscow on Tuesday, the day after a trip to Kiev. In the Ukrainian capital, the German chancellor urged Russia to seize “offers of dialogue” to defuse the crisis, while threatening to take measures that “will have significant repercussions” on the Russian economy in the event of an attack.

On Monday, Moscow also deemed possible a diplomatic settlement of the crisis and announced the end of certain military maneuvers. “There is always a chance,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, answering a question from Vladimir Putin, according to images broadcast on television. “Our possibilities are far from being exhausted”, continued the minister, even proposing to “prolong and broaden” the dialogue, remarks much less offensive than those which have emanated from Moscow in recent weeks. “Good”, replied the Russian president laconically.

For his part, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that “all the elements” were in place for a “strong” Russian military offensive. But “nothing indicates today” that President Putin has made a decision, he added. But, according to the Russian ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, his country “will not invade Ukraine unless we are provoked”. Diplomats will therefore have another busy week.